DON'T TREAD ON THE SAME RAKE...

The presidential election in Kyrgyzstan ended with an impressive victory for the current prime minister, the leader of the Social Democrats, Almazbek Atambayev. This is the country's first election in recent years to have taken place in relative peace and stability.

Kyrgyzstan has travelled a thorny path of development, because of numerous domestic political contradictions and because of its attractive geographical location. In the east, the country borders on China, in the north - on Kazakhstan, and in the south and south-west - on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan through the Fergana valley.

Complicated geopolitical situation

For Russia, Kyrgyzstan is a gateway to China and a buffer zone for regional drug trafficking, arms smuggling and radical religious movements from the south. In addition, Russia sees Kyrgyzstan as part of the "Eurasian Union" that is being cultivated in the higher echelons of power. The presence of a Russian minority in the country (according to various estimates, 10-15 per cent of the total population) also increases Russia's interest in Kyrgyzstan. Moreover, the country hosts a Russian military contingent - the Kant air force base. Negotiations are under way to open a few more bases. In turn, Kyrgyzstan cherishes relations with Russia because Russia ensures its energy security and makes major investments in its economy.

For the US - another pole of global geopolitics - Kyrgyzstan is not only important because of its border with China, but also because of its unique geographical location, which makes it attractive for military bases. Kyrgyzstan is the only country in the world where Russian and American military bases coexist. The American military base Manas (reorganized into a transit centre in 2010) has been an important factor in Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy. In addition, Kyrgyzstan is an important point in the Great Silk Road global project funded by the US and the EU.

At the same time, Kyrgyzstan borders on China's Xinjiang region, which is mostly inhabited by Turkic-speaking Muslims. A large number of immigrants from China, having common Turkic roots with the Kyrgyz, live in southern Kyrgyzstan (Uighurs, Dungans). Therefore, it is important for China to maintain stable and friendly relations with Kyrgyzstan, especially against the background of the growing wave of ethnic Turks' struggle for independence in its northern provinces. In addition, China, like Russia, does not want to see NATO military forces near its borders. However, Beijing is also interested in implementing the Great Silk Road project. Of all countries, China has the greatest economic impact on Kyrgyzstan and is its leading economic partner. 

With regard to domestic political processes, the Heavenly Mountains (Tian Shan) divide Kyrgyzstan into two parts not only in geographical terms. In this country, there is a very serious split between the north and the south. Moreover, this split does not have significant political, religious and ethnic roots (if we do not take into account the Uzbek and Uighur minority in the south). It is just that in the historical context, the north has been more greatly influenced by Russia and Kazakhstan. But after independence, it started to strive for Western values and the population there is mainly Russian-speaking. In the south, the influence of religion, conservatism and nationalism is more tangible. The Kyrgyz speak mostly in their native language, while traditions and clan relationships are strong. Four of the seven regions of the country (Chuy, Issyk-Kul, Talas, Naryn) are located in the north, and three (Jalalabad, Osh, Batken) in the south. Half of the five million people live in the north and half in the south. The birthrate is high in the southern regions. If before, under tsarist Russia and the Soviets, Kyrgyzstan was ruled mainly by northerners, in our time we can observe the strengthening of the southerners' position. In order to prevent the country from collapsing, the issue of moving the capital from Bishkek to Osh has repeatedly been discussed. In the south, there are also ethnic differences between the relatively rich Uzbeks and Kyrgyz. All these trends determine the nature of the current political processes in Kyrgyzstan.

Recent history

Long before the parliamentary elections in 2005, the then President Askar Akayev and Prime Minister Tanayev dismissed a possible recurrence of the Georgian or Ukrainian revolutions in their country.

In 2005, Akayev said that he would not run in the October presidential election. However, there was fraud in the parliamentary elections, whereby the president's son gained a parliamentary seat in the first round and his daughter in the second round, while former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva was not allowed to run in the elections at all, and the "appointment" of deputies mostly from the northern regions of Kyrgyzstan caused anger in Osh and Jalalabad. As a result, the population of these cities seized administrative buildings, after which the political protests also reached the country's capital. Dismissing law enforcement ministers, Akayev tried to cling to power through negotiations with the opposition, but at the end of March, he was forced to leave the country and emigrate to Russia. The mass disturbances, described by Western media as the "Tulip Revolution", started to be called the "Yellow Revolution" after it emerged that several thousand metres of "yellow cloth" had been sent to Kyrgyzstan with the help of the Soros Foundation. Immediately after the revolution, many Western leaders declared the new government legitimate and expressed support for democratic forces.

As for the reaction of Russia and China, it was rather restrained and passive. As a result of the revolution, "a representative of the south", the opposition leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev, came to power. Like his predecessor, he tried to consolidate society and appointed his opponent, northerner Feliks Kulov, to the post of prime minister. But in less than a year, a schism opened up between Bakiyev and Kulov, as well as between the president and parliament. Winning this struggle, Bakiyev dismissed Kulov and objectionable ministers, while his former associates, including Otunbayeva, opposed his policy.

Despite Western support when he came to power, Bakiyev soon became known as a pro-Russian politician. Thus, after a meeting with the Russian president during a session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Moscow on 3 February 2009, Bakiyev said that he was closing the US military base Manas. In response, Russia allocated a loan of $1.7 billion to Kyrgyzstan. On 19 February, the Kyrgyz parliament voted to close the base. However, on 22 June of that year, Bakiyev agreed with the US administration to reorganize the Manas base into a transit centre through the extension of its lease by the Pentagon. This manoeuvre caused a deep freeze in relations between Russia and Kyrgyzstan.

It all ended in mass unrest that grew into an armed revolution after another rise in tariffs for municipal services in April 2010. Opposition supporters seized the capital Bishkek and the main administrative buildings. Bakiyev fled the capital to the Jalalabad region, and then to Belarus. After several months, riots with elements of ethnic conflict between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks began in the southern regions of the country. They led to hundreds of deaths and thousands of refugees crossing into Uzbekistan. Many experts dubbed it an act of revenge by Bakiyev.

As a result of the events of 7 April 2010, a provisional government of Kyrgyzstan headed by Otunbayeva, who was proclaimed president of the transitional period, was created. According to a government decree, the transitional Kyrgyz president's term of office ends on 31 December 2011. During the referendum on 27 June 2010, a new constitution was adopted, under which the country moved from a presidential to a parliamentary form of government.

"No" to instability, "Yes" to stability

Under the new constitution, the winner has to receive at least 50 per cent of the vote. According to opinion polls, Almazbek Atambayev could count on the support of 36 per cent of the population before the election. That is to say he was expected to run in the second round of the presidential elections, in which case all candidates from the south could unite against him. But Atambayev sorted everything out in the first round. There are several reasons for that.

The Kyrgyz people are tired of revolutions, disturbances and riots. Kyrgyzstan has long needed stability and balance in all spheres of life. Atambayev promised the people just that. In the north, Atambayev enjoyed absolute support, as evidenced by the high turnout at the polls. The probability of his election encouraged ethnic groups, who feared pressure if the southerners - Atambayev's opponents - came to power. The Kyrgyz, who live in the south, do not support nationalist sentiments that much. This is confirmed by the fact that in the southern provinces, Atambayev was in third place on the list of candidates.

Atambayev's election campaign was full of the positive, and he was the only candidate who smiled from posters and photos. It is the principle of unity that ensured his victory in the elections.

His opponents, conversely, failed to unite and thus promoted the division of votes among the southerners. In addition, they promised to exact revenge on almost all their opponents, including Roza Otunbayeva. It is known that after such statements, Otunbayeva fully supported Atambayev's candidacy, which played an important role in the latter's victory.

Immediately after his victory, Atambayev made political statements, the most important of which concerns the Manas military base. According to Atambayev, the lease of the base will not be extended beyond 2014, because the airport should be purely civilian. Although we cannot say that it will not consider the interests of the United States.

Right after Atambayev's statement, reaction immediately came from the US State Department. The State Deparment spokeswomman, Victoria Nuland, and the Pentagon press secretary, George Little, voiced the United States' reaction to the possible "loss" of the base in Central Asia. "We have signed a firm contract with the government of Kyrgyzstan on the use of the base until 2014... We expect to consult the new government as to what will happen after 2014. They gave us a clear message that they want to hold such a discussion," Victoria Nuland said.

Many analysts agree that Atambayev's statement on the Manas base was rather an attempt to please Russia and give Washington time to quietly finish its business in Afghanistan and if possible - to bargain, raise the rent and extend the contract. Given the experience of previous presidents - Akayev and Bakiyev - one can assume that following the demand of the Kyrgyz side, the US will provide grants, interest-free loans and investments in exchange for the extended presence of the US military base. Central Asia is too important for America to be left so easily.

So, another presidential race in the life of Kyrgyzstan is over and it revealed similarities and common features with the previous presidential elections. Both northerner Akayev and southerner Bakiyev spoke of solidarity and unity at the beginning of their rule. The previous two Kyrgyz presidents also promised to conduct a multi-vector foreign policy. However, they soon forgot about reform and consolidation within the country and failed to maintain the delicate balance in foreign policy and were overthrown amidst bloodshed. It is hoped that the new leader will learn the lessons of the past, consider the nature of the country and people while appointing the prime minister and forming the government, honour his commitment to national unity, act according to the letter of the constitution, where Kyrgyzstan is shown as a parliamentary country, and try to conduct a clear economic policy. Otherwise, the country will become even more deeply mired in chaos, and the split between the north and the south will lead to the final partition of Kyrgyzstan.