TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN

The South Caucasus countries, which are marking the 20th anniversary of their state independence, have long since moved out of the backyard of world politics. At various times, individual countries of the region have been visited by the president, vice-president and state secretaries of the United States and presidents and prime ministers of major European and Asian countries. However, French President Nicolas Sarkozy's recent visit to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia attracted particular attention. It was the first such visit to all the countries of the South Caucasus by the leader of a great European power such as France. The visit is extra-significant since the EU's foreign policy can be said mostly to be shaped in Paris, if the economic engine of the union is Germany, However, in respect of content, the results of the French leader's visit to the South Caucasus were quite modest.

President Sarkozy's visit was fleeting. He did not come up with new initiatives, nor were significant political agreements signed or large-scale economic projects authorized. It is not surprising that many foreign media said in their comments that through his visit to the region, Sarkozy sought to drum up more support from French voters, among whom there are more than half a million ethnic Armenians. Ahead of next April's presidential elections, his approval rating remains extremely low, somewhere in the range of 25-26 per cent. Even the neutralization of his most dangerous rival, the unfortunate ex-head of the International Monetary Fund, Strauss-Kahn, as a result of a sexual scandal does not guarantee Nicolas Sarkozy's victory.

For obvious reasons, our region is more interested in the foreign policy aspect of the French leader's visit. It began in Armenia. It was given high status as a state visit there. Sarkozy spent most of his time in Yerevan. He visited Tsitsernakaberd - a memorial to the victims of the so-called "Armenian genocide of 1915", walked around Yerevan and held a press briefing.

Political analysts noticed one "strange" thing. Ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy's arrival in Yerevan, Paris was visited by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. It is not so common in world politics. True, the details of the negotiations in Paris were not disclosed. Russian and Armenian commentators linked them to the Karabakh conflict settlement. However, I would venture to say that this move by Sargsyan was prompted by the desperate financial and economic situation in Armenia.

Its foreign debt is approaching $4 billion, exceeding the critical threshold of 50 per cent of GDP while foreign exchange reserves have dropped to the negligible figure of $400 million. There is no point in expecting a new injection from Russia after Armenia obtained and thoughtlessly wasted a 0.5-billion-dollar credit from it. It is necessary to restructure the external debt, since a quarter of budget revenues will have to be paid to service it next year. Sargsyan and his government are promoting the idea of forcing the richest to pay additional taxes, but they themselves hardly believe that this is achievable. This leaves only the IMF, of which Sarkozy's protegee, the former French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, recently became president. Most likely, Serzh Sargsyan visited Paris to beg Sarkozy to lobby his IMF prot?g?e to allocate loans to Armenia. By world standards, the money he is asking for seems to be little, but the financial crisis in Europe and the debt problems in Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Portugal and elsewhere make international financial institutions take a tougher stance on those who ask for loans without clear measures to ensure their repayment in the future.

Obviously, there is no point in discussing economic projects with Armenia, which is heading for a default. Therefore, Sarkozy promised to send specialists on nuclear power to discuss possible assistance to Armenia in this field, taking into account that Moscow plans to build a new nuclear power plant. The French leader filled the gap in bilateral relations with emotional reassurances of love for the Armenians, which mean little in reality, and with support for Armenian claims on third countries, particularly Turkey.

Nicolas Sarkozy said: "If Turkey, like other great powers, does not recognize the Armenian genocide by the end of the year, France will take other measures and adopt a bill to criminalize genocide denial." These words of Sarkozy are balm to the Armenians, but they caused an expected backlash in Turkey. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu replied in a pretty harsh manner, saying: "A state or a society, which has a colonial past and cannot face its own history, has no right to give lessons to Turkey. Those who wish Turkey to face its own history should first look in the mirror."

Sarkozy's "broadside" against Turkey is due not only to his desire to play up historical Armenian phobias and get their support. The thing is not only that Sarkozy failed to establish a personal relationship with Turkish President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan. With its growing 70- million-strong population, Turkey, which has doubled its economic weight in the past decade and demonstrates fantastic growth rates of 7-8 per cent while the EU is plunging into a new recession, is increasingly seen by France as a state that can compete with it for leadership in the Mediterranean basin. Revolutionary processes in Arab countries, as well as the imperial ambitions of Ankara, which has nominated "neo-Ottomanism" as a foreign policy doctrine, make Paris' fears well-founded. Another thing is that with the hackneyed bogey about the recognition of the so-called "genocide of 1915", it is possible to slow down and even block Turkey's advance towards EU membership, but impossible to prevent its growing influence in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

It is clear that, while in the region, Sarkozy could not ignore the topic of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh. But in this regard, he spoke very carefully and reasonably. Sarkozy said at a news conference in Yerevan that there was no greater danger than the status quo, which "creates illusions, provokes revenge and delays prospects of peace in the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict more and more every day... that it is time to resolve the conflict and find the road to reconciliation". According to the French president, it is important that this solution is achieved by the parties. Sarkozy noted that the South Caucasus region is unstable, and peace is important in terms of the two countries' development. It is obvious that while uttering these words in Yerevan, Sarkozy bore in mind how they would be taken in Azerbaijan where the French president went after Armenia.

President Sarkozy's visit to Baku was brief, but intensive. At the end of the official welcome ceremony, the presidents of Azerbaijan and France held talks, expressing satisfaction with the successful development of bilateral relations in political, economic and other spheres. They expressed confidence that relations between the two countries will continue to expand and emphasized the importance of Nicolas Sarkozy's visit in this regard. They exchanged views on important regional and international issues. After the meeting, a joint working lunch between the two presidents and a ceremony to award the First Lady of Azerbaijan, Mrs Aliyeva, the medal of an officer of France's Legion of Honour were held. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Economic Development and the French Development Agency signed a memorandum. The highlight of Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Azerbaijan was the laying of the foundation of a French school in Baku.

In his speech at the ceremony, President Ilham Aliyev said: "France plays a very important role in the development of relations between Azerbaijan and the European Union. I thank you for the support that you personally and your state are giving to European Union-Azerbaijan relations. The recent Eastern Partnership summit once again demonstrated that relations between the European Union and Azerbaijan are developing successfully. France also plays an important role in NATO-Azerbaijan relations. I am confident that your country will continue to support the development of these ties." Then, he cited impressive data on economic cooperation between the parties. In eight months of this year, Azerbaijani-French trade exceeded $3 billion and by the end of the year, this figure might reach 4 billion. Around 40 French companies are successfully operating in Azerbaijan. They are implementing large-scale projects. Among them is a waste disposal plant. French companies are involved in the conceptual development plan of the Baku metro. Cooperation in the telecommunications and energy sectors is successfully developing. Total and Gaz de France are working on the new Abseron field, where there are 350 billion cubic metres of gas.

In response, President Nicolas Sarkozy refrained from unwanted lectures, recalled the historical ties between our countries, stressed the importance of cultural and economic cooperation and said that France is a reliable partner and friend of Azerbaijan.

The French president's visit ended in Georgia. Speaking on Freedom Square in Tbilisi, Nicolas Sarkozy, along with critical statements against Moscow for its failure to comply with several provisions of the ceasefire agreement, called on Georgia and Russia to find a way to restore relations. Saakashvili did not hear encouraging words from the French leader about the prospects for Georgia's membership of NATO and the European Union.

By April next year, the elections in France will remain in the past. Regardless of their results for Sarkozy, opportunistic flirtations with the Armenian diaspora will lose relevance. As for the geopolitical importance and economic potential of each of the South Caucasus countries, this is a long-term factor. It is therefore important that the French leader saw for himself the dull provincialism of Yerevan and Tbilisi's state of disrepair, which cannot be hidden by Saakashvili's facade tricks, and compared them with Baku, a modern metropolis with developed infrastructure and eye-catching wealth and dynamism.

It is also important because after Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's unsuccessful mediation in Kazan to move forward the Karabakh settlement on the basis of the Madrid principles, the foreign media report that the mission of bringing the conflicting parties to compromise can be undertaken by Nicolas Sarkozy. And although France cannot carry the burden of the Karabakh settlement alone, its voice is important and President Sarkozy's visit to Azerbaijan should encourage Paris to take a balanced position. There are strong conditions for that. After all, as opposed to the interests and wishes of the Armenian diaspora, which are usually forgotten the day after elections, the interests of major French companies, which depend on Azerbaijan, are a lasting factor. So never mind that during his visit to the region, the French president stayed longer in Armenia. If Nicolas Sarkozy is re-elected, he'll be back to Baku.