IF NOT THIS ONE, THEN THE OTHER ONE?!

The term of Russia's lease of the Qabala radar station (RLS) will expire at the end of this year. However, during a recent visit to Azerbaijan, Russian Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov said he hoped that the lease would be extended. Meanwhile, according to the Russian media, the construction of a new radar station is in full swing in Armavir. The station will be put on "combat duty" in 2012, i.e. at the end of the lease of the Qabala radar station. What is it: a calculation or coincidence? Experts' answers vary. Some think that the radar station in Armavir, no matter how modern it is, is not in a position to fully cover the area monitored by the Qabala station. At the same time, it is believed that the Qabala radar station is no longer valuable for Russia.

The deputy head of the Russian Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Aleksandr Khramchikhin, told R+ that Russia needs the Qabala radar only for bargaining with the United States over the deployment of a NATO missile defence system in eastern Europe. If the negotiations on missile defence with the US are not successful, the Qabala radar station will be replaced by the one in Armavir. This question will finally be cleared up in 2012, when the construction of the Armavir radar station is completed, the expert said.

Khramchikhin believes that in terms of military cooperation with Azerbaijan, Russia has primarily a commercial interest. As long as Azerbaijan is ready to pay for weapons, Russia is willing to sell them to Baku, although Moscow is not interested in a significant change in the balance of power in favour of Azerbaijan over Armenia, Khramchikhin said. According to him, the sale of S-300 Favorit anti-aircraft missile systems to Azerbaijan by Russia will have little effect on the balance of forces, as Armenia has virtually no aircraft. For Russia, on the issue of cooperation with Azerbaijan, the red line is a radical change in the balance of forces in favour of Baku, he said.

An interesting point of view about the future of the Qabala radar station was expressed by another Russian expert, the director of the Centre for Public-Political Research, Vladimir Yevseyev. In an interview with the magazine, he noted that in its technical capabilities, the station in Armavir has dual-band tracking - metric and decimetric. Work on the decimetric wave makes it possible to stop using the radar station in Mukachevo in the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine. This sector of the Armavir radar station is already in the pilot-combat stage. Metric waves are directed towards the southeast and can completely replace the Qabala radar station. The difference is that the Qabala radar can monitor a range of 5-6,000 kilometres, while Armavir can cover up to 3-4,000. In other words, the distance is quite comparable. Besides, the radar station in Armavir is a prefabricated station of the Voronezh DM type, that is to say it is rapidly built and is more economical on water, electricity, etc. In contrast to the Qabala radar station, this station can be used to track missiles.

Speaking about the future of the Qabala radar station, Yevseyev noted that in principle, the range of 4,000 km, economy and new opportunities created by the Armavir radar station allow Russia to stop using the station in Azerbaijan.

But from a political point of view, the Qabala radar station creates a wide scope for Azerbaijani-Russian military cooperation, the expert said. It should be noted that Russia has supplied Azerbaijan with three divisions of S-300 Favorit anti-aircraft missile systems and, in general, Russia wants to establish a highly developed partnership with Azerbaijan. In 2012, Russia could fully hand over the radar station to Azerbaijan in order for Azerbaijani staff to run it while Russian experts would provide technical assistance only. Of course, this station is not as economical as Armavir, and perhaps there are some environmental problems, and what's more, Azerbaijan has its five of its own radar stations, but by having such a station as Qabala, as well as the S-300 systems which can be used for air and missile defence, Azerbaijan can ensure reliable protection from Iran. In his opinion, there are opportunities to create a joint missile defence system between Russia and Azerbaijan. For example, it is possible to build on the territory of Azerbaijan a joint centre to prevent rocket attacks, which will be serviced by joint staff. Moreover, such a facility would not pose a threat to the security of Armenia, to which Russia has certain obligations. At the same time, Armenia cannot present a missile threat to Azerbaijan. Yes, Armenia has tactical systems, but Azerbaijan has such systems as well. This is not that kind of threat. Azerbaijan has a clear advantage in aircraft. There is no reason to say that the centre for the prevention of missile attacks will increase the military capabilities of Azerbaijan in the war over Karabakh. The purpose of such a centre is to ensure security from Iran, which is beefing up its missile capability. In particular, the range of the Shahab-3 missile system is 1,500 km, and Azerbaijan is within its reach.

According to the expert, a purely political decision related to military cooperation may be made on the Qabala radar station.

Yevseyev notes that the Russian proposal on the joint use of the Qabala radar station along with the US has been virtually taken off the agenda. Formally, the Russian proposal remains valid, but the US has alternatives. The US is using a radar station in Israel with a range of up to 1,500 km, can install a sea-based radar station or build one in Turkey. The talks have actually stalled because of the lack of understanding. The Qabala radar station is no longer on the agenda of the negotiations. If Russia does not agree on sectoral missile defence, Washington and Brussels believe that the proposal on the Qabala radar station is contrary to Article 5 of the NATO Charter. It is possible that Russia will be creating its own missile defence system independent of NATO. So, Russia has no military motivation to use the Qabala radar station, Yevseyev said.

The Russian expert's proposal to shift the costly maintenance of the Qabala radar station onto Azerbaijan is quite understandable. But it is doubtful that Baku will agree to use an obsolete, uneconomical, environmentally harmful and strategically dubious Soviet legacy.