GENERALS' DEMARCHE

The June parliamentary election in Turkey has surprisingly plunged the country into political turmoil. The boycott of the new parliament by two opposition parties was only the "first sign", which was followed by the unexpected resignation, or rather retirement, of the chief of Staff, Isik Kosaner. This was a sensational development, given the army's influence on Turkish society.

In early summer, analysts and journalists read the opinion polls and predicted the victory of the Justice and Development Party, which would, logically, be followed by a "stable political season" that would end only with the debate on a new constitution. However, events began to unfold at lightning speed.

After parliament had broken up for the holidays, the only important event of the summer was the meeting of the Supreme Military Council, chaired by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during which new appointments are traditionally made. However, shortly before the meeting, scheduled for 1 August, the chief of the General Staff suddenly submitted a request to retire, making it clear that he would not approve the new appointments.

Kosaner openly said that at the heart of the crisis was the government "crackdown" on senior officers as part of the notorious coup attempt case. In the case dubbed Ergenekon, an Istanbul court initiated the arrest a year ago of 11 generals who were expecting promotion and 102 retired officers.

To understand how deep the differences between the military and Erdogan's government are, it is enough it to analyse the sequence of events in the past year.

The friction started last year when the General Staff demanded that Gen Hasan Igsiz be appointed commander of the ground forces. The prime minister and President Abdullah Gul came out against the candidacy which was supported by Kosaner.

This was followed by another major row between the military and the government. On 29 October last year, President Abdullah Gul organized the first joint banquet with his wife Hayrunissa, and leaders of the General Staff were also invited. However, Kosaner defiantly did not accept the invitation, showing the whole of Turkey that he was not going to participate in an official event celebrating the Day of the Republic which was attended by a woman with her head covered, even if she was the first lady. A response to the chief of the General Staff came from Erdogan, who said that "Kosaner was wrong in showing disrespect for the president, thereby alienating himself from the public".

More disagreement was to follow. Less than four months later, on 18 February, Isik Kosaner visited Hasdal prison where the generals charged with preparing a coup are held. Although no statements were made on his visit, the press immediately dubbed the move by the chief of the General Staff "support for the disgraced generals". The level of indignation in the Turkish armed forces at the lack of official criticism of the government over the Ergenekon process grew further in subsequent months.

Discontent grew and peaked during the election campaign. More fuel was added to the fire by the arrest of Gen Bilgin Balanli, who was considered the most likely candidate for the post of commander of the Turkish Air Force.

However, Kosaner remained silent, expressing his discontent only through meetings with the relatives of the arrested generals. The latest such meeting took place after the parliamentary elections on 12 June, when the chief of the General Staff visited the wives of the imprisoned commanders.

It was against this backdrop that on 14 July President Abdullah Gul met both Erdogan and Kosaner in his Cankaya residence. On the same day, PKK terrorists ambushed a Turkish convoy in the town of Silvan in the south-east of Turkey, killing 13 soldiers. Journalists began to actively discuss the shortcomings of the country's military leadership. The government also made it clear that it was not satisfied with the quality of the fight against the PKK, and intended to reinforce the Special Forces subordinated to the Interior Ministry.

The country's leading newspapers wrote that the number of special forces would soon reach 15,000. Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that this would improve "the quality of the fight against terrorism", while the gendarmerie would coordinate its work with the police. Thus, the prime minister made it clear that was not the army but the Interior Ministry that would be in the foreground of the fight against terrorism. At the same time, Erdogan's supporters began to actively discuss the possibility of subordinating the General Staff to the Ministry of Defence, saying that this practice is adopted throughout the world. This would lead to complete government control over the army and minimize the political influence of the military.

According to Article 117 of the Turkish Constitution, the chief of Staff is "responsible" to the prime minister, but what the responsibility is has not been spelled out. It unties the hands of the generals, who in many cases disregarded the opinion not only of the minister of defence but also the prime minister.

The rumours of the possible subordination of the General Staff to the Ministry of Defence were the final straw for the army leaders. As a result, resignations were tendered not only by the chief of Staff, Isik Kosaner, but also by the commander of the Ground Forces, Erdal Ceylanoglu, the Navy commander, Admiral Esref Ugur Igit, and Air Force Commander Hasan Aksay. In fact, there were two years left of Kosaner's term as chief of the General Staff.

It is also noteworthy that all four generals have not resigned but retired to avoid losing the benefits and privileges for retired military personnel. So the calculation was made on purely political grounds.

If such a step had been taken in previous years, Turkey could have clearly faced a military coup. The chief of the General Staff would have had to work day and night, while generals with many stars on their epaulettes would have been queuing to meet Kosaner. But the gloomy scenario did not materialize this time. The crisis was overcome just four hours after the resignations. President Abdullah Gul told journalists that an extraordinary event had indeed taken place in Turkey, but talk about a crisis was premature.

And although the memories of the previous military coup of the early 1980s are still quite fresh in the minds of the Turkish public, there is no panic in the country. Moreover, the government has made it clear that the General Staff no longer enjoys the influence it had 15-20 years ago, when the military succeeded in ousting Necmeddin Erbakan, known for his pro-Islamic views.

In early August, it became clear that the generals, who were demanding that the government release their colleagues, had played their last card - a massive and defiant departure. However, Erdogan did not back down and made it clear that he was not going to put pressure on the courts and release the 250 officers arrested as part of the Sledgehammer trial. In fact, the arrests of military personnel continued after Kosaner's resignation.

It is quite possible that the failure of the army leadership to put pressure on Ankara is evidence of the end of the era when the political establishment always looked back to the General Staff. The days when the Turkish army showed that it is stronger than the government in everything are gradually being consigned to history. Politicians loyal to the authorities see a positive trend in the developments, describing the resignation of the generals as "a step towards the democratization of Turkey" and full submission of the army to a civilian government. At the same time, a fair few are concerned about growing authoritarianism in Turkey.

According to them, the strengthening of Erdogan, who secured nearly half of the votes in the June election, could prompt him to the idea of complete control over the army, the press and the courts. The government's opponents are openly speaking about the lack of control over the prime minister. According to them, the best example of this trend is the increasing pressure on youth organizations that criticize the government, the imprisonment of thousands of people who support enhanced rights for the ethnic Kurds, as well as the arrests of more than 50 journalists who still remain in custody.

And although the prime minister is promising an active public debate on a new draft constitution, the strengthening of his position could result in a complete revision of his views. Therefore, at stake is the new fundamental law of the country which is expected to transform Turkey into a presidential republic.

A presidential election in which the head of state will be elected not by parliament but by voters is not too far off either. The most likely candidate to be a president with broad powers seems obvious.