THE FORMAT REMAINS IN FORCE, BUT THE STATUS QUO MUST CHANGE

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, Ilham Aliyev and Dmitriy Medvedev, have met again to discuss the Karabakh settlement. This was their first meeting after the June talks of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in Kazan.

High hopes were pinned on this meeting. It was assumed that in Kazan, a framework document would be signed at last - a kind of "road map" to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, no document was signed. The Armenian side preferred to continue the endless play on words, while Azerbaijan openly stated that it was ready to immediately begin to develop a peace agreement, understanding what had been achieved.

One way or another, the Kazan talks did not move on to a new stage. As a result, some experts even said that the trilateral format with the mediation of the Russian president was at an impasse. Of course, this situation could not suit Russia as a mediator country and Dmitriy Medvedev personally, whose credibility in the region and Russia itself largely depends on the success of these initiatives, especially given that presidential elections will be held next year. Therefore, it was impossible to allow the process to be interrupted without being successful. It is in this context that many analysts viewed Medvedev's decision to invite Aliyev to pay a working visit to Sochi. Perhaps, Medvedev discussed the continuation of the trilateral negotiations with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in Astana, where they participated in the informal summit of heads of Collective Security Treaty Organization member states, but no official reports or statements on the matter were available at the time our magazine went to print. However, there were no statements on the results of the Aliyev-Medvedev meeting in Sochi either.

Only before the talks, did the leaders address the media with brief statements. "I would like to have a very frank conversation with you about what to do next and how events can unfold in the light of our last trilateral meeting, which took place in Kazan, and previous meetings in this format," President Medvedev said.

President Aliyev, in turn, said: "We in Azerbaijan very much appreciate your personal involvement in this process. The rounds of negotiations in a trilateral format, which were held, certainly brought the parties' positions closer. This (the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy Karabakh conflict - R+) is the main problem of regional security, and, of course, Azerbaijan is more interested than anyone else in the soonest settlement of the conflict, so that all displaced persons return to their places of residence and peace, tranquillity and cooperation are established in the region."

It is clear that the statements are fairly discreet and it is impossible to make definite conclusions about the Sochi talks on their basis. However, the mere fact of this meeting suggests that the tripartite format of negotiations on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict remains in force. This was confirmed by a department head of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, Novruz Mammadov. "The presidents' position can be expressed as follows: in meetings and negotiations held recently, at the initiative and with the participation of President Dmitriy Medvedev, it was possible to bring closer the parties' positions on some issues in accordance with the Madrid basic principles. It is therefore necessary to continue the negotiations in the future," he said.

The American centre Stratfor explained the meeting of the presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan quite differently. According to the centre's analysts, Azerbaijan plays on contradictions between the major powers to a greater extent than other Caucasian countries, pursuing its own interests.

Stratfor believes that Azerbaijan is unlikely to ever side with Russia or any other country fully, as Baku does not want the future of its energy industry to depend on one player. However, both Moscow and Baku, demonstrating that cooperation between them is possible, gain an advantage in negotiations with other countries, in particular with the United States.

Of course, the idea that Azerbaijan and Russia are imitating cooperation in order to strengthen their position in relations with third countries is fundamentally wrong. Suffice it to look at the volume of trade between the two countries and the dynamics of its annual growth for this Stratfor thesis to vanish by itself. The American experts are right about one thing: today Azerbaijan has all opportunities to ensure its own interests in bilateral and international relations.

This is in contrast to Armenia, whose leadership the former president and current leader of the Armenian opposition, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, advises to "stop relying on third forces". Otherwise, the adventure will cost Armenia dear, he said.

"The Armenian government should realize the harmfulness of isolation for the country and its dependence on one neighbour. This should result in an effective settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey," Levon Ter-Petrosyan said in an interview to the Armenian TV channel A1+.

Ter-Petrosyan admitted that the Georgian-Russian war three years ago demonstrated how vulnerable the Armenian economy is: "All this should contribute to the serious attitude of the Armenian authorities to the bitter truth and the search for ways out of the situation."

The way out of this situation is, first of all, to improve relations with Azerbaijan through withdrawal from the occupied territories. Otherwise, the negative migration balance will continue to haunt Yerevan. Sargsyan himself admitted that in the first half of 2011 alone, the number of citizens who left Armenia exceeded the number of arrivals by 67,000, which is of great concern and demanded "an increase in the authorities' efforts to expedite reform".

Otherwise, "if it continues like that, the Armenians will even ask Azerbaijan for permission to live there", the Armenian political scientist Galust Grigoryan said.