A MATTER OF PROFIT

The idea of building the Nabucco gas pipeline has become perhaps the most disputable and controversial international project of recent years.  Despite numerous attempts to give a daring plan by a number of European companies a more material shape, it remains unclear whether the grand plan of providing Europe with a source of natural gas that would be alternative to Russia.  Even in Europe itself, Nabucco is sometimes called just a "dream."

As is known, Azerbaijan is considered by Nabucco shareholders as one of the main suppliers of the raw materials for the gas pipeline, but the Azerbaijani side has more than once stated that the decision on participation in the project would be reached only after the assessment of its economic benefits for the republic.

However, other potential exporters of energy to Europe subscribe to exactly the same point of view, as candidate of economic sciences Anar Rakhimzhanova, head of the economic research department at the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies under the president of the Republic of Kazakhstan, told Region Plus.

- The USA and EU have been active recently in terms of implementation of the project for building the Nabucco gas pipeline.  What are perspectives for this project from the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea?

- Kazakhstan has advocated diversification of its routes for export of hydrocarbons at the latest summit of the Caspian nations.  So, if the construction of Nabucco really begins, Kazakhstan will of course consider the possibilities of its participation in the project.  But the reserves of natural gas have not been fully explored in Kazakhstan yet.  That is why for now, we mainly discuss only exports of oil.

- Astana has been forthcoming in financing foreign projects.  Could Kazakhstan become one of the shareholders in Nabucco?

- Talking about the possibility of financing, we need to note the changes which have taken place in the strategy of the KazMunayGaz National Company AO.  At present, the company is concentrating its assets mainly inside the country, although the investments that were made abroad are also developing.  At present, however, KazMunayGaz is not considering the possibility of broadening its investment portfolio abroad.  Nonetheless, despite this and the fact that Kazakhstan is not a direct participant in the Nabucco project, when the actual implementation of the project begins, Astana might join in as a shareholder.

- The EU attaches key importance to Turkmenistan's participation in Nabucco.  Adding Uzbekistani gas to this project is just as important for Europeans.  How will these nations act from the point of view of political will if the actual implementation of the project begins?

- Both those nations will strive to sign Nabucco-related contracts which would be profitable for them.  These nations own the resources and have the right to sell natural gas at profitable prices and using the most convenient routes of delivery of the energy resources.

- The Nabucco project is often linked with another project - that of the Transcaspcian gas pipeline.  Richard Morningstar, special envoy of the US State Department, said during his visit to Baku that the issue of building the gas pipeline across the bottom of the Caspian Sea should be decided by Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and the EU.  What is Kazakhstan's attitude toward the project of building the gas pipeline on the bottom of the Caspian Sea?

- The issue of building the pipeline across the Caspian Sea depends first and foremost on decision on the status of the Caspian.  When the nations agree on whether the Caspian is a sea or a lake and how the body of water should be divided among them, it will become clear how the pipeline should be built.  But to the best of my knowledge, the Transcaspian option of building the pipeline is not discussed because of the difficult environmental situation in the Caspian Sea.

- Kazakhstan exports most of its oil via Russia.  Does Astana plan to diversify oil exports through pipelines?

- At present Kazakhstan transits oil via pipelines running via Russia and also supplies oil to China via the Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline.  Kazakhstan has no other routes of exporting oil via pipelines.  The most promising project is building the North-South oil pipeline with participation of Turkmenistan, which will cross the territory of Iran and deliver oil to the Near East.  Small amount of oil is exported by Kazakhstan via Azerbaijan using tanker vessels.

- The Nabucco project is in stiff competition with the Russian project, South Stream.  Natural gas has become a political commodity since recently.  Will participation of the Central Asian nations in a project which is lobbied by the EU and the USA not result in straining relations with Russia?  What consequences might the geopolitical struggle have in an explosive region like Central Asia?

- This is not so much a matter of concern as of the right of the resource owners to dispose of them as they wish.  Russia has quite a significant weight in the region, while Europe most often limits itself to verbal, moral support.  Accordingly, the nations which possess the resources will make their decisions with consideration for the current state of affairs.  It all hinges on whether or not Europe will demonstrate real interest in supply of resources from Central Asia instead of using the project to get the natural gas which it receives from Russia at a cheaper price.  Ultimately, the decision will be made by the leaders of the supplier countries based on what the strategic benefits will be.