WHY TALK NONSENSE?

The Karabakh negotiations are usually viewed in a stage-by-stage context. We are used to talking about rounds in the talks, which date back to the establishment of the OSCE Minsk Group, the Prague process, the Madrid principles, etc. Finally, the meetings in Sochi are taking us to the so-called last round at this stage - the Kazan summit. But what if we try to rewind the chronology of events and look at the work done over a general plan? This work is supposed to result in a peace treaty which requires the presence of a "roadmap". 

But in essence, work on this "roadmap" has been under way since 2004 when the so-called Prague process emerged. The Madrid principles revealed at a meeting of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers in 2007 (and updated in 2010) represent the very "roadmap" that determines a form of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement. In fact, the "roadmap" is not even supposed to be signed. It is only an annex to the official document, the peace treaty. 

And Azerbaijan's position on the issue is very explicit. As indicated by the Azerbaijani president at the 12 July Cabinet meeting on the results of the socioeconomic development in the first six months of 2011, Azerbaijan unequivocally stated at the trilateral meeting in Sochi in early 2010 that it is accepting the updated Madrid principles tabled by co-chair countries.

"I think that this option may be accepted. Of course, these are fundamental principles. Talks should be conducted on this basis and a peace treaty is to be prepared in the end. Of course, when a peace treaty is ready, the final decision will be made by the people of Azerbaijan," Ilham Aliyev said. 

"Moreover, Azerbaijan is still adhering to the same position as in 2010 after Sochi: we are ready to start working on the wording of the peace treaty on the basis of what has been agreed. Kazan has given us the opportunity to move forward. We knew that there were still issues to be agreed, but they would be part of the peace treaty anyway, and if there is goodwill, lets start working on it at once without waiting for the next stage of talks on the fundamental principles. Let's work on the peace treaty," Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said in an interview with Interfax.

Baku is making it clear that it is ready to continue the talks and move on to the next stage. "I think certain progress has been made, and we can easily go on to the peace agreement. The fundamental principles are already there, and there is understanding as to where we are going in terms of the peace process. Within the fundamental principles there are details that have not been agreed yet. So what is the point in tripling the effort if they will still be part of the peace treaty? Why talk nonsense? Let's work on the peace treaty at once, not on a political document," the Azerbaijani foreign minister says. 

What about Yerevan? We understand that Armenia did not accept the updated fundamental principles in Sochi and said it wanted to further elaborate them. 

As a result, many experts are saying that there was no progress between Sochi and Kazan. 

And that is correct with a minor clarification. There is no progress not in the work on the principles, but in the Armenian position, which the Kazan meeting confirmed again. The essence of the Madrid principles is no secret, they have been repeatedly spoken about by politicians, political analysts and experts.

Strange as it might seem, Baku always has to repeat that it wasn't Azerbaijan who invented these principles and that they emerged as a result of international mediation. They have emerged because the existing status quo is unacceptable not only for Baku, but also for the entire region, for co-chair countries. This has been repeatedly stated at the international level, including the G8 summit.  

But Armenia is trying to go into detail over and over again. This is the reason for a recent statement from Yerevan that Baku has made "10 provisos". 

"There were fewer than 10 provisos, and the Azerbaijani president simply repeated what he had been saying for the last two years," Elmar Mammadyarov said in the interview...  

But if we go back to the stage-by-stage terminology, the next step in the negotiating process is work on the wording of the peace treaty which is being developed on the basis of a "roadmap" - the same stage-by-stage principles that form a single plan. And it is important to distinguish between stages of fundamental principles and stages of the negotiating process. 

It is clear that the demonstration of a constructive approach to the talks is tantamount to a "political suicide" for Armenian leaders. This has already happened and is common knowledge. It is difficult for Sargsyan to acknowledge to his people that he will sooner or later have to agree to the stage-by-stage settlement agreed to 14 years ago by Levon Ter-Petrosyan who was overthrown shortly afterwards. 

Armenia cannot put up with the obvious fact. The sides have been speaking about it in plain language for years, but always disagreeing in the end.

The culminating point of the whole process is Nagorno-Karabakh's status exclusively within the Republic of Azerbaijan, as is required by international law. Time is ticking, and it is getting increasingly difficult for the isolated Armenia to just feed its people because of its incessant territorial claims. We can imagine the plight of Karabakh Armenians! Azerbaijan has something to put on the table. "Meanwhile, we can provide ethnic Armenian citizens of Azerbaijan living in Nagorno-Karabakh with necessary arguments that they will be more interested in living in prospering Azerbaijan," Elmar Mammadyarov says. 

Yerevan knows that its game is up and its only chance is to use the traditional delaying tactic. But those who think that they can still take a long time-out in the Karabakh talks will be disappointed.