"NATO OF THE EAST" OR "COLOSSUS WITH FEET OF CLAY"

The 10th jubilee summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which now includes Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, was held in Astana in mid-June. 

Since the SCO is rightfully considered the biggest regional organization in the world and includes the most promising economies, the event drew significant international interest. Suffice it to say that SCO countries are home to more than half of the world's population. The organization includes two permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia and China) and a G8 member (Russia), two nuclear states (Russia and China, while two observer countries, India and Pakistan, have a nuclear weapon too), two of the world's most rapidly developing economies, the largest energy consumers and countries with the biggest populations (China and India), as well as two countries of the BRICS (Russia and China, while India is an observer).

The Shanghai Group of Five was set up by Russia, China and three Central Asian republics in 1996. In 2001, it was transformed into the SCO in line with the so-called "Shanghai spirit" - a spirit of mutual confidence, neighbourliness and cooperation in the political, economic, scientific and cultural spheres. Initially, it was meant to be a defence alliance in the fight against terrorism, extremism and separatism. Annual anti-terror exercises called Peace Mission are still held by the organization. 

It is said that the existence of the Regional Anti-Terror Structure (RATS) has already prevented more than 500 acts of terror. 

However, the boundaries of the Shanghai organization significantly expanded in the first decade of its existence. The SCO is now focusing on promoting economic relations. In the years of its existence turnover within the organization has increased seven times. By the end of 2010, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of SCO countries constituted $3.6 trillion. There is a Business Council and an Interbank Association within the SCO, the economic forum is conducted on a regular basis, a program of multilateral trade and economic cooperation covering a period until 2020 is being implemented. Member countries always talk about the possibility of introducing their own currency backed by gold. Interaction among member countries is expanding to cover such areas as education, public health, environmental protection, etc. 

At the end of the meeting, the heads of state adopted the Astana Declaration. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev disclosed the supranational ideas that have been branded the "five good causes" of the SCO. The first good cause is to step up the fight against terrorism, extremism and drug dealing. Nazarbayev suggested setting up a Conference to resolve territorial and regional conflicts so that preventive measures could be taken in potential "hot spots" of the organization. This is indeed quite necessary for the SCO because the organization provided practically no response to the developments in Kyrgyzstan.

Secondly, Nazarbayev suggested that work should be started on establishing a single transport and energy area of the SCO. According to the Kazakh president, the first step has already been taken - the construction project of the century, the 8,700-km motorway 

linking Western China to Western Europe, is already under way. 

The third cause is the establishment, within the SCO, of new mechanisms for close economic cooperation in order to eliminate obstacles to investment and trade and bring food security and water use issues to the fore. The suggestion is to set up a new entity within the SCO, the Water and Food Committee at the level of ministers.

The fourth suggestion concerns the establishment of a Council on Emergencies (in view of last year's fires in Russia and Kazakhstan and the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan).

And, finally, the fifth supranational priority is the establishment of an institute for the prognostication and elaboration of a single vision of SCO development.

The SCO leaders approved the Anti-Drug Strategy for 2011-2016 in Astana. Member-states are particularly concerned about drug trafficking from Afghanistan where opiate growing has increased 10-fold in the last decade. In fact, it turns out that global warming is also responsible for the increase in the turnover of drugs - new mountain paths are emerging due to the ice melting, leading to an increase in trafficking. 

SCO countries believe that this issue should be dealt with at the level of the UN, and that an international investigation is required. Meanwhile, quite a significant volume of drugs is grown in the SCO countries proper, given the abundance of difficult-to-access mountainous places there.

As for Afghanistan, considering the situation in the country and the recently announced US plans to start the drawdown of US troops, this is a sore issue for the SCO. Its member-countries are wary that the departure of the USA from Afghanistan will plunge this country into chaos which will inevitably affect its neighbours. Particularly prone to the spread of radical ideas is Tajikistan, but a clear threat is also posed to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The territory of Central Asia has many hidden threats. Precisely a year ago the world was watching a bloody drama unfold in Kyrgyzstan during clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the country's south. As a result, hundreds were killed, wounded and went missing. The SCO, as a collective force, did not venture to intervene. 

Besides, countries of Central Asia, which largely represents a desert and semi-desert landscape, are becoming increasingly susceptible to clashes over access to drinking water. While the water situation is quite tense, some regional countries are rich in other resources - natural gas and oil. So the fight for access to natural resources is closely intertwined with political intrigues over various energy projects. In fact, foreign players are actively involved in the process. 

The situation has been made even more complex and tense by the so-called "Arab spring". For instance, according to Russian media, President Dmitriy Medvedev had a long and tense discussion with Uzbek President Islam Karimov behind closed doors. According to observers, Russian experts believe that the likelihood of disturbances in Uzbekistan, following a scenario observed in Middle Eastern countries, is quite high. Uzbekistan, and indeed other Central Asian republics, is a very complex country, and domestic instability in any of these countries may jeopardize the entire region. 

Accession of new members to the SCO has been an issue for several years now. Four countries, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan, currently have the status of observers, two countries, Belarus and Sri Lanka, have the status of "partners in dialogue", and there are three invited members, Afghanistan, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Association of South East Asian Nations - ASEAN.

India and Pakistan want to have the status of permanent members, which, of course, will significantly expand the geographical component of the SCO and the scope of its responsibility. But this is a very difficult decision for the organization, even considering its vast potential and ambitions. 

It must be remembered that Pakistan today is no less problematic than Afghanistan in terms of the spread of radical ideas. At the same time, India and Pakistan, both nuclear powers, are in a territorial conflict with each other. Besides, as is the case in China, India's rapidly growing economy is preconditioning a great demand for the energy exported from Russia and Central Asian countries. 

Another issue is the reaction of the USA to the possible accession of Pakistan. On the one hand, Islamabad is Washington's close ally in the region and receives huge funds for the fight against terrorism, but, on the other, the two countries have a long list of complaints about each other. So the White House is unlikely to be pleased with the strengthening position of Pakistan. Another US ally in the region is India which is competing with China economically and especially in terms of access to natural resources.  

At the same time, the USA would certainly welcome assistance in the fight against terror. Something Russia and China are not ready to do on their own can be easily accomplished by the SCO. 

Finally, what are the Middle Eastern prospects of the SCO, an organization whose summits are always attended by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? The crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear program has been moved to the backburner due to the developments in Libya, Syria and Yemen and the radical changes in Tunisia and Egypt. But this cannot last for too long, and Tehran's nuclear ambitions will soon come back into the focus of the international community. The SCO is unlikely to take on so much responsibility.

So what does the next decade hold in store for the SCO, an organization some describe as the "Asian NATO" and others as a "colossus with feet of clay"? On the one hand, its scale and ambitions are its obvious advantages, but, on the other, a clear weakness. 

The Shanghai organization, which was not even taken seriously in the beginning, has managed to prove its significance. And despite the critics saying that all the SCO does is conduct summits to take collective pictures, this is not true. The question is whether the organization can identify the threats it is facing, take reasonable risks without which there can be no development. Can it become a real guarantor of regional stability? 

Special attention should be paid to the rivalry between leading powers - Russia and China, primarily in Central Asia.  

Most likely, the future of the SCO lies in a balance between the national interests of all its members, security and joint economic projects. In other words, the strength of the organization is still in the very spirit of regional cooperation.