A CONVINCING VICTORY, BOYCOTT AND HOLIDAYS…

A convincing victory at the parliamentary elections on 12 June did not insure Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) against political woes.

Barely two weeks after polling day the Central Electoral Commission withdrew the mandates of a number of candidates who had been convicted for political reasons, and although the rights of most of them were soon restored, the scandal refused to go away. At the same time, it was not only independent candidates, supported by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party, who were hurling criticism at the AKP , but also Ergodan's main opponent - Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the Republican People's Party (CHP).

The very first session of the parliament of the 24th convocation began with a scandal. On 28 June deputies of the Republican People's Party declared they would refuse to take their oaths of office. They gave as their reason the arrest of two MPs who had been arrested as part of a major investigation into the preparation of a coup d'etat by the Ergenekon organization. The arrests were made after the parliamentary elections.

"We will attend parliament but we will not take the oath," Kemal Kilicdaroglu said. "We will not take the oath until our deputies, who have the right to vote, are allowed to."

The decision of the 135 deputies of the CHP was also supported by 35 independent Kurdish deputies. They took this step after one of their colleagues - Hatip Dicle - had been stripped of his mandate. The CEC considered that Dicle, who had been handed a 20-month sentence for propaganda of the terrorist PKK, did not have the right to be elected to parliament.

Unlike Kilicdaroglu's supporters, the independent deputies preferred not to go to Ankara at all but to travel to Diyarbakir with its mainly Kurdish population, thereby voicing their protest at the CEC's decision in the Dicle case and the verdict of the court which refused to release six candidates of the Peace and Democracy Party who had been elected to parliament.

It is quite possible that the PCP's decision to boycott parliament could be a reason for holding partial early elections. According to the current constitution, such elections are held if the number of vacant seats in parliament is 5 per cent or over. However, Erdogan is hardly likely to "fill the gap" with his own supporters because this will seriously displease the population in the country's southeast regions and put paid to the dividends gained from his policy of broadening the cultural rights of ethnic Kurds. The forces advocating extremism would benefit the most.

So, 170 out of the 550 deputies elected to the Turkish parliament failed to take the oath. Of course, the decision by Kilicdaroglu and the independent deputies will scarcely interfere with parliament's work, but such a course of events is of symbolic importance because it highlights differences between the authorities and the opposition and between the opposition parties themselves.

The opposition's decision led to the immediate and very sharp displeasure of the government. "The country doesn't want a boycott. The opposition's objective is to make law-making more difficult and to provoke a new spiral of political tension," Prime Minister Erdogan said.

Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu preferred to criticize not only Erdogan's supporters but also members of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP), headed by Dovlet Bahceli. Unlike the Republicans and the independents, the 53 deputies from the right-wing MHP attended the first seven-and-a-half-hour session of parliament and took the oath.

This led to a storm of accusations against Bahceli. "We shall not betray our supporters," Kilicdaroglu said, meaning that one candidate from Bahceli's party had also been denied access to the swearing-in ceremony. The court had refused to release retired General Engin Alan, who had been elected to parliament from the MHP. He, as one of a number of former top brass in the army, is also accused of taking part in a plot to overthrow the Tayyip Erdogan government.

Members of the Turkish public and human rights supporters have frequently criticized the legal authorities' refusal to release opposition members who have been elected to parliament. At the same time, they have pointed out that there are no legal obstacles to their release because no judgement has been passed on them and, consequently, they have a constitutional right to be elected and to be voted on to legislative bodies.

It has been suggested that the prime minister is worried at the possibility of parliamentary debates being initiated on the question of the investigation into the failed coup, and if that is the case, everything may go off course. In other words, the public will learn "more than is necessary" about the Ergenekon trial.

The current crisis has also become a sort of result of the lack of a clear delineation of concept between the branches of government. In essence, the opposition is demanding that the government reverse judgements, and that means political pressure on the courts, and if verdicts are overturned, the whole state system in the country is completely discredited. This will demonstrate that the government has control over the courts. And Turkish law has no precept for the release of prisoners on receipt of a deputy's mandate.

As far as the president's position is concerned, Abdullah Gul followed the first session of parliament for an hour and a half and the following day delegated Recep Tayyip Erdogan to form the 61st Turkish Cabinet of Ministers.

Finally, it is worth recalling all the work that has been done to adopt Turkey's new constitution. The new edition of the Basic Law, prepared by Erdogan's supporters, is not supported by the opposition. And the ruling party will not achieve its objective on its own because it does not have a constitutional majority of 367 votes. Furthermore, Erdogan's party will not be able to call a referendum on the constitution, for which 330 mandates are required.

The new constitution can only be adopted by agreement with the opposition, but the latter's actions show that concessions are possible only if its demands are met: i.e. the release of their colleagues from custody and recognition of their status as deputies.

The current constitution was adopted in 1982 after the last coup in 1980, and it was because of this that the opposition blocked Erdogan's initiatives.

It has to be said that as of the beginning of July Turkey is two steps away from political chaos. Some people are calling for the immediate dissolution of parliament and emergency elections. Proponents of this initiative claim that the electorate will not accept the opposition's arguments, and that mans the percentage of support for Erdogan's party could be increased from 50 to 60. According to this scenario, such a step would allow the Justice and Development Party to secure its long-awaited 367 seats and thereby get the new constitution adopted and avoid a referendum.

At the same time, another scenario is possible whereby a number of Republicans will switch to the Erdogan camp. Basically, the ruling party, which has a portfolio of 326 mandates, needs five seats to submit the new edition of the constitution to a referendum where Erdogan's initiative will certainly succeed. 

Nobody expected that the "political spring" in Turkey would end so quickly. At best a crisis has been "put on ice". In other words, the parliament of the new convocation will go off on holiday and leave the subject open.

However, this could lead to instability in the country and be a direct blow to the economic argument - the main trump card in the government's hands. That is why the incumbent government will do everything possible to solve its problems.

It is quite possible that a number of legislative acts will be urgently reviewed and so the subject of the "imprisoned deputies" will fade away. But time will tell if the prime minister will support this decision.

One thing is clear and that is that the next four years of government of the Justice and Development Party will be the most difficult of Erdogan's career. The weakening of positions in parliament will be a blow to reforms and reduce their success factor.