WHEN INTERESTS MATCH

In anticipation of the next meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia with the mediation of the Russian president, the regional media are once again full of comments that Russia is taking the initiative, Moscow is strengthening its clout in the region, this, in turn, is encouraging the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to intensify their efforts in the peace process, etc.

What is the view of Western experts on this subject? Cory Welt, the associate director of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies at George Washington University, helped us to answer this question. He specializes in Eurasian politics and security and US foreign policy towards the region. He has been a researcher of Caucasus history and regional politics for many years.

The American expert shared with us his views on the role and position of the mediator countries in the peace settlement of the Karabakh conflict both in the format of the Minsk Group and individually.

- William J. Burns, the undersecretary of state for political affairs, met the OSCE  Minsk Group recently and mentioned the obligations of the USA on the Karabakh problem. Can we see this as intensive efforts by the US government to settle the conflict and, if so, what is the reason?

-The failure of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochment process at least had the effect of clarifying to the US government the critical importance of simultaneously making progress on resolving the Karabakh conflict.

- What exact measures or significant attempts have been taken by the Obama administration to solve the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict so far?

- It was President Obama, together with Presidents Medvedev and Sarkozy, who went public with the Basic Principles put forth by the Minsk Group for resolving the Karabakh conflict. This was an important step that provided, for the first time, a transparent vision of the way forward for resolving the conflict. It was also a necessary step to promote open discussion on the merits and risks of this internationally-backed proposal. It allows supporters of the Basic Principles to both sell its merits to all parties and to think harder about how to minimize their risks.

- How do difficulties between Russia and the USA affect the settlement process? Does the OSCE Minsk Group perfom its duties well?

- I believe that Russia sincerely supports a conflict resolution process that is based on the Basic Principles and, more specifically, an interim solution that allows for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from most territory outside Nagornyy Karabakh and de facto self-government for Nagornyy Karabakh for the indefinite future. At the same time, I believe that Russia doesn't want to be a peacemaker for nothing; it has certain interests in being a guarantor of the conflict resolution process. After getting Azerbaijanis and Armenians to agree to the Basic Principles - a hard enough challenge - the next challenge will be to get Russia and the United States, together with the EU, to agree on an international peacekeeping format that is in all parties' interests.

- Armenia is called an outpost of Russia in the South Caucasus. Can we say that Russia backs Armenia and directs its policy?

- It's inaccurate to say that Russia "directs" Armenia's policy. It doesn't need to. Be assured that Armenia is pursuing the foreign policy that Armenians themselves want to pursue. But at the same time, it is impossible to ignore the reality of the Russian-Armenian military alliance. Russia values Armenia for providing it with a secure, long-term presence in the South Caucasus. It therefore cannot be expected to "sell out" Armenia in the course of its peacemaking efforts. Still, if Moscow perceives Armenian acceptance of the Basic Principles, including withdrawal from territories around Nagornyy Karabakh, to be in Russia's interest, then we can expect it to more firmly persuade Yerevan to agree to them.

- What is the reason for the international community's awkward attitude towards Azerbaijan on Karabakh? Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev recently stated that the four UN resolutions on Karabakh still remain unfulfilled, though the recent resolution on Libya was instantly implemented and, consequently, NATO forces are taking part in military operations in Libya today.

There are different kinds of UN resolutions - ones that come into being in order to facilitate action already agreed upon by major powers, and the rest - those that are proposed only to express the position of various states, with little anticipation of immediate action. The resolution on Libya was the first kind; UN resolutions of the second kind are, for better or worse, ignored all the time.

- In March 2011, a nine-year-old Azerbaijani boy living on the front line was killed by the Armenian military. The Azerbaijani leadership has repeatedly addressed international organizations and demanded an end to crimes against Azerbaijani civilians during the cease-fire, but Armenia has not been exposed to any pressure. What is the reason?

Any killing of civilians along the cease-fire line is an immense tragedy and crime. There is a growing recognition that the kind of violence that has been seen along the cease-fire line is unacceptable and must be addressed. Clearly, removal of all snipers along the line - and a stepped-up international monitoring presence - is a necessary step to move the conflict resolution process forward. Such violence is tragic in and of itself, but it also raises the prospect of an inadvertent escalation of conflict.

- How did and will Azerbaijan's economic development influence its political activity on the international scene?

Azerbaijan's economic growth can, first and foremost, have a positive influence on social and political development within the country. If it also raises attention to Azerbaijani interests and gives Azerbaijan the kind of confidence needed to allow it to play the role of a regional state, then it can only be welcomed. In any case, Azerbaijan's Eurovision victory may prove more significant to its international policy over the next year than its economic development.