TO CHANGE THE STATUS QUO!

The agenda of the G8 summit in the French resort town of Deauville was extensive. G8 leaders discussed international terrorism, the war in Afghanistan, the repercussions of the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the future nuclear policies of the world's superpowers, the Arab revolutions, economic hardship in Europe, the problems of the worldwide web, the post of the head of the International Monetary Fund, etc. 

Traditionally, the summit agenda has included the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy-Karabakh, i.e. its settlement within the OSCE Minsk Group format which is handled by the USA, France and Russia.

Of course, the news that the heads of the mediating countries had adopted yet another joint statement did not claim to hit the headlines. Its substance, however, did attract attention.

Medvedev, Obama and Sarkozy called on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan "to demonstrate their political will by finalizing the basic principles [of a settlement] during their upcoming summit in June".

"Further delay would only call into question the commitment of the sides to reach an agreement," says the joint statement of the three presidents.

"Once an agreement has been reached, we stand ready to witness the formal acceptance of these principles, to assist in the drafting of the peace agreement, and then to support its implementation with our international partners," the statement says.

"We reiterate that only a negotiated settlement can lead to peace, stability, and reconciliation, opening opportunities for regional development and cooperation," the co-chairing states said and urged leaders of the two sides "to prepare their populations for peace, not war", ITAR-TASS reports.

The leaders of the co-chairing countries stated that, "As a result of efforts by the parties and the co-chair countries at all levels, significant progress has been made. The latest version of the basic principles, as discussed in Sochi on 5 March, lays a just and balanced foundation for the drafting of a comprehensive peace settlement," says the joint statement. In the opinion of mediators, this document "provides a way for all sides to move beyond the unacceptable status quo".

We recall that this is the third joint statement by the Karabakh mediators. The first was made at a G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy, in 2009. Then, the US, French and Russian presidents tasked their representatives in the Minsk Group with "submitting to the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia an updated version of the Madrid document dated 29 November 2007 that would contain the latest suggestions of the co-chairs on the definition of the basic principles".

Proceeding from this imperative, the Minsk Group co-chairs prepared an updated version of the Madrid principles that could be seen as a transition to the next crucial stage in the negotiations. But while Azerbaijan quickly voiced its support for the updated Madrid principles, Armenia has yet to say whether or not it approves them.

In an effort to speed up the process of approval of the basic principles, the presidents of the USA, Russia and France decided, during the G8 summit in Canada in June 2010, to adopt another joint statement on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy-Karabakh. The statement contained an open call for the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to accelerate the approval of the basic principles so that work could begin on a peace treaty. But Yerevan seems reluctant to adopt the updated Madrid principles. 

The initiatives of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev, who has organized eight meetings with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in a trilateral format, have not persuaded Armenia to be more constructive either. Of course, the meetings were not futile. At least, they served as an opportunity to prevent the threat of a resumption of hostilities in the region and to bring the sides closer together. Another positive result of the meetings was the agreement on mutual exchanges of POWs and other humanitarian issues. But a breakthrough on the settlement issue remains elusive. 

However, judging by the latest statement of Obama, Sarkozy and Medvedev, the mediators are tired of waiting for the grass to grow under their feet. Describing the status quo as unacceptable and urging the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to complete work on the main principles, they established a specific timeframe. In an ideal world, the long-awaited breakthrough is expected to take place during a meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan in Kazan on 25 June. This call should first of all be heeded in Armenia - Azerbaijan has long stated its acceptance of the basic settlement principles proposed by the mediators. This means that the presidents of the USA, France and Russia have actually given Yerevan one month to make up its mind. 

The fact that the joint statement is aimed primarily at Armenia is confirmed by the reaction from the parties to the conflict. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has described it as a reassuring factor that the Minsk Group co-chairs have made a statement about changing the status quo for the first time. "The change of the status quo means that the occupying forces must withdraw from the occupied territories and Azerbaijan's territorial integrity must be restored," Ilham Aliyev said, confirming that the issue must be resolved in the near future. 

But while Azerbaijan appeals for a speedy solution to the problem, the Armenian side is trying to find guarantees of its security in the statement of Obama, Sarkozy and Medvedev, should there be a further delay in the conflict resolution. It is no coincidence that Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan has laid stress on the unacceptability of war, not on the demand to complete the approval of the basic principles within one month. 

If the basic principles are agreed, Armenia, as was stressed in last year's statement by the presidents of the USA, France and Russia, will have to withdraw from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Only then will there be "interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing security and self-governance, a corridor linking Armenia to Nagornyy-Karabakh". 

As for the legal status of Nagornyy-Karabakh, according to mediators' suggestions, it is to be determined in the future "by a legally-binding expression of will, the right of all internally-displaced persons and refugees to return, and international security guarantees, including a peacekeeping operation."