THE COLLAPSE OF RADICALISM

In all societies, even in the most developed ones, there are groups of people who always see everything negatively. Colour-blindness has nothing to do with it. Such is the credo of radicals who are ready to sacrifice even state and national interests to achieve their own selfish aims.

History has repeatedly proven the failure and danger from revolutionary change in various states. That is why, today, most societies prefer an evolutionary path of development, rejecting radical change and upset. Azerbaijan has also taken a path of stable and consistent development, as has been repeatedly confirmed by the reports of the most influential international organizations and financial institutions.

But the wave of revolutions in several Arab countries seems to have inspired and radicalized part of the Azerbaijani opposition. The political forces that failed miserably in the last presidential and parliamentary elections decided in a sort of magic manner that zero hour had come for them. Hastily knocking together an amorphous Public Chamber from outsiders, the radical opposition announced its intention to begin a series of mass protests, including 'a revolutionary coup' in Azerbaijan. The executive authorities of Baku were literally inundated with appeals for permission to hold peaceful protests. In all these appeals, they asked for the busiest places in the central parts of the capital. All alternative territories proposed by the capital's executive authorities were strongly rejected, and that's understandable. The radicals' task is to make their actions look like mass protests, which is why busy public and transport areas appear to be the most suitable places. In this case, everyone nearby could be designated as protesters with a 'clear conscience'. That is why the radicals were trying to hold their unauthorized rallies in Baku's Fountain Square.

But the rally of 'many thousands' attended by several hundred people was quickly foiled by the police. The radical opposition again chose Fountain Square to hold its next 'peaceful' unauthorized rally, hardly increasing the rally of "many thousands" to 400-500 people this time and reporting to their patrons that the rally was attended by 5,000 protesters. As the police tried to disperse the illegal protest, the 'peaceful' crowd began to break windows of nearby shopping pavilions, shops and buses. Some entrepreneurs suffered serious material damage. Especially rampant protestors were temporarily detained and subjected to administrative punishment.

This scenario suited the radical opposition, which intended to trumpet the violation of human rights in Azerbaijan to the whole world. Although it would not harm them to examine the legislation of European countries whose democratic values the Azerbaijani opposition likes to manipulate.

In France, for example, they begin to disperse an unsanctioned rally after two warnings. Force is used against aggressive individuals. Citizens who continue to volunteer to participate in such rallies may be sentenced to imprisonment for one year or fined up to 15,000 euros. If a detainee conceals his face, he may get up to 3 years' imprisonment and be fined up to 45,000 euros. Incitement to participate in illegal rallies entails up to 7 years' imprisonment and a fine of 100,000 euros.

In the UK, any citizen who fails to inform the police of an intention to conduct a rally is fined one thousand pounds. Unauthorized change in the date, time and route of an agreed rally is subject to a similar punishment. For ignoring the recommendations of the police in this connection you can be arrested for up to 3 months or be fined 2,500 pounds sterling.

No less stringent penalties and criminal sanctions are provided for in Germany's legislation for participation in unsanctioned rallies and gross violations of public order. Here is the latest example. On 11 April, policemen guarding the Capitol in Washington arrested the mayor of Washington, Vincent Gray, and five members of the District of Columbia council, including its chairman Kwame Brown. The senior officials participated in a protest during which some 200 officials and activists blocked the street next to one of the US Senate buildings. They were protesting against the decision of the lower house of Congress which had made a compromise with the administration of President Barack Obama in adopting the draft budget for the 2012 fiscal year. The police allowed the protesters to sit on the street for about 30 minutes, and then proceeded to arrest them.

Against this background, the reaction of some European institutions and the diplomatic missions of individual countries in Azerbaijan to the suppression of the radical opposition's attempts to stage unauthorized rallies is quite unconvincing and biased. This is probably due to a lack of knowledge about the true state of affairs. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry made appropriate and adequate statements. They said that while preventing unauthorized rallies, the police acted entirely within the framework of the law as the state's responsibility is to ensure public order and security for all citizens. The authorities will not allow violations of the law and attempts to destabilize the political situation, which endanger the lives and health of citizens, just to please a handful of destructive forces. It was also noted that Azerbaijan had never expressed its attitude to activities undertaken by various forces in foreign countries, believing that it is the internal affair of states. And it would be good if foreign representative offices acted within their mandates and did not interfere in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan.

Meanwhile, there were no radical opposition leaders among the protesters arrested in Azerbaijan for the simple reason that the leader of the Musavat Party, Isa Qambar, the leader of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party, Ali Karimli, and the head of the Public Chamber, Panah Huseyn, were not among the protesters. Sending their "soldiers" to "fight", the "generals" of the opposition chose to sit in their native penates, sipping fragrant tea and signing another appeal to embassies and international organizations about the violation of principles of democracy in Azerbaijan. All this is reminiscent of the tragic days of January 1990 when the same actors did the same and left civilians under heavy fire and tanks of the Soviet army. And then, as if nothing had happened, they declared themselves "heroes" of the national struggle for independence and came to power on this wave.

But analysis shows that today the radical forces have no chance of coming to power in a revolutionary way. Azerbaijanis, who had enough of revolutionary upheavals in the early 1990's and during the one-year reign of the current opposition, favour the evolutionary path of development. This is evidenced by numerous polls.

By virtue of a consistent policy to develop all spheres of public life, solve socioeconomic problems, upgrade the infrastructure, strengthen the country's defence and its position in the international arena and, most importantly, to ensure stable growth in the population's welfare, the rating of the authorities, including President Ilham Aliyev, is rising.

In this regard, the results of an opinion poll conducted by the Ray monitoring centre last month are quite indicative. The poll was conducted on 28-31 March among 850 residents of Baku. It was found that if presidential elections were held next Sunday, 83 per cent of the capital's residents would vote for Ilham Aliyev. Asked whether "Ilham Aliyev secures the interests of people like you", more than 70 per cent of respondents said "Yes". About 65 per cent of respondents see no alternative to Ilham Aliyev as the country's president.

It should be noted that in the implementation of numerous programmes for the development of the country's regions, Baku and its villages are the core line of the socioeconomic policy of the Azerbaijani leadership. We should also note the factor of personal control by the president over the implementation of the planned programmes and prompt intervention in problems. And the question of the sharp tightening of the anti-corruption policy has been raised separately lately, which also affected the growing popularity of the authorities among the population.

In addition, the Azerbaijani leadership does not deny the presence of a number of issues the opposition is manipulating. But if the opposition uses these problems to achieve their political goals, the government sets specific targets to address them. Simply put, you do not need to burn the whole house to fry an egg, as the radicals demand. Hence, the negative attitude of the population to opposition protests.

The Ray monitoring centre also tried to learn how residents of the capital see the protest euphoria of the opposition. The study showed that the action of the radical forces did not go unnoticed among the population. Judging by the poll results, a third of Baku residents first heard about these actions from the interviewers, while the remaining two thirds were aware of events or had heard something about them. Only 8 per cent of respondents approve the holding of these rallies, while the vast majority is "against" (67 per cent) or find it difficult to answer (25 per cent).

Answering the question "Would you participate in these rallies if they were held next Sunday", only 3 per cent of the respondents answered "yes" and another 4 per cent chose the answer "more likely than not". And 93 per cent said a firm "no" and "rather no than yes".

A similar picture emerged in the blitz survey recently conducted by the opposition newspaper Bizim Yol in the city. Almost all citizens interviewed by the reporter opposed the holding of unauthorized rallies in the city centre, considering them a violation of the rights of other citizens to normal activity and rest.

Thus, the mood in society and the acceleration of reforms in the country nullify the radical opposition's demands for the resignation of the Azerbaijani authorities. The ideologues of the "dissatisfied" have no new progressive ideas, while former populism and hysterical cries of "all out!" irritate today's social consciousness.

This, perhaps, dictates the mass exodus from the ranks of the opposition parties observed recently. The number of those who have left their ranks already exceeds thousands. These people are seriously irritated by the fact that the leaders of the radical opposition who have not worked anywhere for many years lead a luxurious life, denying themselves nothing and sending their children to the most prestigious foreign universities. "How did the unemployed leaders of radical parties get such fabulous money?" their former colleagues ask.

On the other hand, almost every day, the opposition camp is rocked by news of a split in the leadership of a number of political parties and among their leaders. For example, if the political council of the National Democratic Party has announced its chairman almost a traitor and declared support for the Public Chamber, the Liberal Party, headed by Lala Sovkat, and Citizens and Development Party, headed by Ali Aliyev, spoke out against the Public Chamber, which includes their former allies. That is to say Krylov's fable "The Swan, the Pike and the Cancer" is still relevant to the opposition camp.

Despite these circumstances, the leaders of the radicals do not want to really assess the situation and the possibilities, not to mention the fact that they do not take into account the national and state interests that could be seriously affected if the political situation in the country destabilized.

In this context, it is worth paying attention to the recent statement by the main opponent of the current authorities of Armenia, the Armenian National Congress leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan, whose appeals make 50,000 protesters, not some radical 400-500, take to the streets. "We do not intend to rush things, we will act within the law and Constitution, achieve the fulfilment of our requirements step by step, avoiding the emergence of social riots and political turmoil in the country. We are doing this not because we deny the legitimacy of revolutionary methods, but solely to avoid the increasing risk of Azerbaijan resuming hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone. If anyone is wary of these concerns, I have no doubt that Azerbaijan will not hesitate a moment and take advantage of any serious unrest in Armenia," the leader of the Armenian opposition said.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan's personal experience in this issue can be trusted. After all, when he was president of Armenia, the Armenian armed forces, taking advantage of the political chaos and the struggle for power in Azerbaijan, occupied 20 per cent of our territory. Moreover, it is noteworthy that those who are trying to provoke society played a key role in the struggle for power in Azerbaijan. But something different attracts attention in Levon Ter-Petrosyan's statement.

The main opponent of the Armenian authorities refuses to resort to revolutionary methods in domestic politics only so as not to allow Baku to take advantage of this. Although once he wishes, the Armenian population, choked with poverty, will rise up to overthrow the ruling criminal clan from Karabakh. It is no secret that the socioeconomic situation in Armenia is so catastrophic that it absolutely does not compare with the situation in Azerbaijan, which all international organizations have recognized as a leader in economic growth not only in the region, but for a number of parameters in the world. Revolution in Armenia, as a classic said, requires only one spark. But it is absolutely clear that Ter-Petrosyan operates in the national interests of his own country. And in whose interest is the radical opposition in Azerbaijan operating?