THE CURSE OF THE PHARAOHS,

The unrest spreading across a number of Arab countries has become the central theme of international geopolitics of late.  The causes and possible consequences of the current developments for these countries and for the world political map are being analyzed at different levels.  There is every reason to say that the upheavals in Arab countries will eventually expand to geopolitical proportions.  These events affect the political systems and social policies of the authorities and the rights of the population in Arab states in general.  At the same time, taking place in a particular area for an extended period of time, they call for extreme sensitivity.  Leaders of all major powers have expressed their attitudes towards the processes currently under way in Arab countries.  But before reviewing the geopolitical implications of these processes, let us examine their underlying domestic political causes.

The anatomy of the protests of the ''masses'' against the ''leadership''

Citizens of Arab countries are protesting against the form of political governance and social policy of their leaders.  And the 'dumping' of US diplomats' cables added fuel to the fire.  The protesting Arabs believe the truth of the information disseminated about their leaders and demand that they are brought to account.  Even the resignation of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt did not particularly calm the masses.  Similar processes are under way in Bahrain, Libya, Jordan, Yemen and Algeria.

An important aspect of this issue is the non-observance of democratic principles of governance.  It can be said with certainty that Egyptians want their society to be open.  This is further confirmed by slogans chanted at supporting rallies in Turkey and Pakistan.  Thousands of people in these countries have voiced their support for the Egyptians precisely because of their demands for democracy and their refusal to put up any longer with totalitarian government.  Thus protests against social policy and the existing form of government are an important part of the anatomy of these processes.  It can be said in this light that the upheavals in Arab countries are essentially the consequences of a deepening rift between the authorities and the public.  It seems that the development of democracy in some Muslim countries, in Turkey in particular, has played a considerable role here.  Among other reasons are living standards for the majority in Arab countries, which are much lower than in Western countries.

And finally, an extremely important geopolitical aspect should not be omitted.  The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become an insurmountable obstacle on the path of regional development.  Apparently, the international players concerned deem it necessary to refresh the political forces in Arab countries, and perhaps in Israel too, to remove this obstacle because, going by past experience, these political forces have proved incapable of adopting the rational approach necessary to tackle the problem.  This means that, first, the upheavals in Arab countries will inevitably end in the ruling parties being replaced.  Second, similar processes maybe expected to take place in Israel, although perhaps in a more peaceful and civilized form.  At any rate, if major changes take place in a coherent geopolitical area, they cannot be unilateral. This logic requires change in other countries of the region too.  The first thing US President Barack Obama told Turkish prime minister during his visit to the country, was this:  "We have changed, so must you."  Apparently, by change the United States means changing governance and social policy and accelerating democratic development in the states in question to change the political atmosphere in the Near and Middle East in general.  All this demonstrates that there is a link between the processes which are under way in Arab countries and the geopolitical situation in the region.  In this respect, there are other implications to focus on.

The Arab world and Iran:  When will the air clear?

It would seem that to believe Iran has nothing to do with these processes would be wrong.  After all, if this is a matter of the spread of democracy from West to East, Iran is a very important destination on this route.  In light of the current developments in Arab countries, this issue may be viewed from two angles.  The first stems from the issue of energy security.  Until the Iran issue is resolved, the system of energy security for the West will not operate to its full extent.  The current rise in oil prices on international markets proves this.  Second, the question of bringing a democratic regime to power in Iran remains relevant.  If Arabs change, Iran will lose many supporters in its confrontation with the West.  First and foremost, Iran will not be able to remain a role model for Muslim Arabs.  Second, the operations of a number of radical groupings sponsored by Iran will be greatly hindered.  Greater democracy in Muslim countries will also influence Iranian society.  There are already signs of this:  Iranians are demanding a change of ruling regime.  However, expecting an easy solution to the Iran issue would be naive.  The essence of this statement can be made clear by examining it in the context of the history of religious groupings and their attitudes towards present-day political processes.  This is a question of the attitudes of long-standing religious organizations of the Near and Middle East towards the developments in Arab countries.

Players on the other side of the ''red line''

Groupings created under the flag of Islam are usually perceived by political circles in the West as illegal.  Whether this is right or not merits separate discussion.  But the reality is that the political activities of organizations with strong Islamic identities are watched with caution.  Even the political elites in Muslim countries themselves generally maintain a cooler attitude towards the idea of religious rule.  Despite this, a number of Islamic groups do influence the political environment and sometimes even decide the destiny of political power.  The Muslim Brotherhood is an example.

They are frequently mentioned in connection with the current developments in Egypt.  There are reports of the possibility of their participation in a new government.  What does this mean?  What will be the reaction to the presence of a group operating under the flag of Islam in the government of an Arab country?  What effect will these factors have on democracy in Muslim countries in general?  This leaves open the question of how Iran will use the possibility of legitimisation in the political arena of players who are 'on the other side of the red line'.

Conclusion

At all events, people in Arab countries are demanding modernization of their societies.  The dramatic lag in the standards of living in the Middle and Near East behind those in Western countries was not the least important cause.  To all appearances, the recent events will result in very serious changes across a huge geopolitical area.  In the context of international politics, it is necessary to make special mention of some of the causes of current developments.  First:  tensions in the geopolitical confrontation between the great powers in the Near and Middle East have reached a peak.  Western countries and Russia have started a new phase in the struggle for control of the region.  The information disseminated during Russian President Medvedev's visit to Palestine testifies to this.  On the other hand, private visits to the region by high-level officials from the West, first and foremost from the United States, must not be ignored.  Second, to achieve a final settlement of the Iraq problem, change is needed in the geopolitical layout of the Near and Middle East, because the oil-rich Arab countries must enjoy guaranteed stability if Iraq is to keep a government which suits the West's interests and if the process of creating a global system of energy security is to be completed.  But this cannot be expected of a society which is based on corruption and tribal psychology.  Regimes which can check the activities of separatist and radical forces must rule in the region.  Third, it is already clear that the leak of US diplomatic correspondence pursued concrete geopolitical goals.  To understand what the outcome might be, it is necessary to monitor closely the processes unfolding in Arab countries.  Fourth, the main target is Iran.  If Arab states become more democratic, pro-Iranian radical religious groups will be neutralized.  And most importantly, the Iranian people will sense the strengthening of the democratic atmosphere in other Muslim states.  The chances of taking on Iran and renewing the political regime there will increase.  It follows that this time, the West has chosen a subtler and more effective method:  isolating Iran geopolitically.  Figuratively speaking, economic sanctions are to be replaced by ideological ones.