ROUND ONE: NO SCORE

Moscow continues its mediation mission on Karabakh, and in both Baku and Yerevan the results of the meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in Moscow on 24 January are being discussed with understandable interest. Official comment was quietly optimistic and, as always, scant in detail. Neither Baku nor Yerevan is in any hurry to disclose the details. For his part, Aleksandr Lukashevich, official spokesman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, had this to say about the talks: "Questions of a settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh problem were discussed at the meeting, taking into account the instructions given by the presidents at the tripartite summit in Astrakhan on 27 October 2010. This was the fourth meeting between the ministers in the past three months, which indicates the intensity of the work being carried out in this format." The Russian diplomat said that the possibility of a visit to the region by the co-chairmen of the OSCE's Minsk group was also discussed. 

The statement, to put it mildly, offers plenty of scope for comment. First of all, the fact that a visit to the region by the co-chairmen was discussed is the most eloquent proof that Russia's mediation is not being seen as a rival to, or substitute for, the work of the OSCE's Minsk group where Russia, like the US and France, has the status of co-chairman.

Furthermore, what Lukashevich had to say could equally be seen as either testimony to very modest results from the talks or as claims of a breakthrough. On the one hand, visits to the region by the co-chairmen are a quite regular occurrence. On the other hand, Azerbaijan has stressed more than once that it will not hold talks for talks sake. Translated from diplomatic language this means that it only makes sense for the co-chairmen to come when there is a chance of kick-starting the talks. That said, the day before the meeting all kinds of predictions were being made about their outcome, from frank scepticism to optimism. For example, Novruz Mammadov, the head of the Azerbaijani presidential administration's foreign relations department, told journalists that the meeting between the heads of the Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian Foreign Ministries in Moscow should define the direction of the settlement talks. 

For their part, experts have been pointing to another factor: despite all the recent geopolitical "shifts" in the region, Moscow still has unique potential for influence on Armenia and on Azerbaijan. Besides, the Kremlin realizes that standing aside from participation in a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict means finally losing influence in the region which, for perfectly understandable reasons, it cannot allow to happen.

In any event, Rasim Musabekov, political analyst and deputy of the Milli Majlis, pointed out in an interview with a correspondent of the Interfax-Azerbaijan news agency that the fact that Russia is more au fait with the situation than the other co-chairing countries of the Minsk group could give a positive boost to Moscow's role in Karabakh conflict mediation. "Russia, unlike the other co-chairing countries, is a neighbour of the sides involved in the conflict and is more acquainted with the processes occurring in the region. Russia is a strategic partner of Armenia and also intends to elevate its relations with Azerbaijan to the level of strategic partnership. Naturally, there is no possibility of Russia standing outside these processes. Russia has always, as it were, been a part of these processes," said Musabekov.

Many experts are warning that, despite the outward calm, tension in the conflict zone continues to rise. Thorbjorn Jagland, Secretary-General of the Council of Europe, who plans to visit Azerbaijan in the near future, warned in an interview with ANS that the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone could get out of control. "Incidents on the troop contact line, which have led to loss of life, could have the worst possible consequences. Until the conflict is settled, the risk of a resumption of war will remain. Azerbaijan and Armenia, by joining the Council of Europe, committed themselves to a peaceful settlement to the conflict. I hope there will be no further tension." Jagland noted. At the same time, the CE's secretary-general stipulated that the talks were being held within the framework of the OSCE's Minsk group and was beyond the competence of the Council of Europe. "But if we can contribute to the Minsk process in any form we shall be very happy to do so. In order to multiply efforts to achieve peace and restore stability, it is extremely important to ensure the supremacy of law. This is very important for a settlement not only to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict but to all 'cold' conflicts," Jagland pointed out.

Experts, too, are expressing concern. "The Karabakh detonator is cocked - bellicose rhetoric can be heard ever more clearly in Baku and Yerevan," notes the Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper. Most of all, the paper writes, "observers are alarmed by the excessive increase in Baku's military spending".

The newspaper continues: "According to a statement by Samir Sarifov Rauf oglu, the Azerbaijani Finance Minister, in 2011 the country's military budget will increase by 90 per cent, to 2.5bn manats (3.1bn US dollars). If you consider that in addition, 1.087bn manats (1.36bn US dollars) will be spent on the defence industry, then the overall expenditure of the military and defence budget will be 4.46bn US dollars, or 8.9 per cent of Azerbaijan's Gross Domestic Product. Georgia had almost the same ratio of national defence expenditure to GDP in 2008, before its inglorious incursion into South Ossetia."

Azerbaijan, let us remember, favours a peaceful settlement to the conflict. But Baku is emphasizing that if that does not bring results then Azerbaijan reserves the right to restore its territorial integrity by any means, including military. During his brief visit to Moscow, Elmar Mammadyarov gave an interview to the Arab editor of the Russia Today channel, in which he reaffirmed that Azerbaijan is striving to establish peace and stability in the Caucasus region and this applies, first and foremost, to a settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But, at the same time, the Azerbaijani foreign minister recalled that "in the 21st century it is impossible to build and maintain neighbourly relations by closing one's eyes to the occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territory and the ethnic cleansing of the Azerbaijani population from these territories". It is clear that this warning was not addressed only to Armenia. Finally, Yerevan cannot but ponder the fact that the country is in point of fact at a political impasse, and its isolation continues to solidify. Its attempt to split the alliance between Azerbaijan and Turkey has failed.

In a recent statement addressed to Yerevan in a speech to the PACE plenary session, Turkish president Abdullah Gul again recalled that Yerevan should not count on the opening of borders until the Azerbaijani lands are liberated.

And the hopes Yerevan places on Moscow are not being justified, either. Whilst Armenia demands that Russia immediately 'punishes' Azerbaijan for increasing its military spending (!) Moscow is developing its strategic cooperation with Baku.

Naryshkin's recent visit to our country and the opening of the Russian humanitarian centre are eloquent examples.

Theoretically, all this should prod Yerevan towards more constructive behaviour at the talks, which would meet the interests not only of Azerbaijan but Armenia, too. The problem, however, is that to backtrack from its aggressive policy on Karabakh would be political suicide for the present leadership. And (Armenian President) Serzh Sargsyan's recent interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio station confirms, alas, one's worst fears - that Yerevan is still not ready for peace. However, in the current situation, this is too much of a blow to the authority of a Moscow fully determined to achieve tangible results from its mediation.