"OIL OF THE FUTURE"

Event of centuries-long significance

Whereas, currently, 40 per cent of the capital's population have continuous water supplies and 60 per cent are supplied to a schedule, after the commissioning of the Oguz-Qabala-Baku pipeline, about 75 per cent of the city's residents will have constant, clean, high quality water that meets World Health Organization standards.

This event may rightly be compared with such historical events as the laying of the famous Sollar water pipeline by Haci Zeynalabdin Tagiyev in the early 20th century and the construction of pipelines to supply water to the Abseron Peninsula from the Kura River under the leadership of Heydar Aliyev in the 1970s.

However, the Azerbaijani government is not going to stop here and plans to implement new, large-scale projects aimed at securing full water supplies, not only for the people of Baku and Sumqayit, but for the whole country. Specifically, under the project "Reconstruction of the Samur-Abseron Irrigation System", it is planned to complete the construction of the Taxtakorpu reservoir with a total capacity of 268 million cubic metres of water in the current year. A hydroelectric power station with a capacity of 25 megawatts and the Valvalacay-Taxtakorpu and Taxtakorpu-Ceyranbatan canals will also be constructed. The implementation of these projects alone will solve completely the problem of life-giving water and will supply irrigation and industrial water to a vast region of the country, including the cities of Baku and Sumqayit and other towns on the Abseron Peninsula. The reconstruction of the Samur-Abseron irrigation system and the construction of the Taxtakorpu reservoir create a powerful incentive for further expansion of land reclamation work in Azerbaijan. In total, taking into account the projects that have already been implemented, Azerbaijan will launch 16 different reservoirs between 2008 and 2015. The functioning of these important projects will strengthen the economy of surrounding areas in the near future, create new industries and modernize existing agriculture. The strategic importance of these projects becomes more apparent as you study the problem of fresh water globally.

The world is thirsty

The annual growth in the world's population and global economic development eventually lead to an increased demand for fresh water. Today, the depletion of the world's fresh water resources is one of the most serious global problems facing mankind. This problem is possibly the highest priority. It is particularly acute in economically underdeveloped countries and in countries whose economy is dominated by agriculture. This issue is especially pressing in Africa and Asia. It is not for nothing that fresh water is called "the oil of the future". Scientists estimate that 97.5 per cent of total water reserves on Earth are salty water. Fresh water accounts for only 2.5 per cent of global water resources. 75 per cent of water is "frozen" in mountain glaciers and polar caps, another 24 per cent is underground and 0.5 per cent is "dispersed" in soil in the form of moisture. Ultimately, the most accessible and cheapest sources of water, concentrated in rivers, lakes and other surface waters, account for little more than 0.01 per cent of total world reserves. Currently, the world uses about 55 per cent of a year's supply of fresh water. Of this, 70 per cent goes to irrigation, 20 per cent to industry and only 10 per cent to the needs of the population. Currently, 20 per cent of urban and 75 per cent of rural people in the world lack fresh water. According to American experts, over one billion people currently lack access to potable water. And very soon, this number will increase to 3 billion. Scientists project that after 25 years, mankind will face the greatest challenges in ensuring water supplies. And there is a danger that the world's fresh water resources will be totally depleted by 2100. Some authoritative experts of world renown in the field of ecology argue that the unresolved status of this problem may even initiate a third world war. It is no coincidence that a series of discussions at the UN was devoted to resolving this issue.

Great drought?

The UN does not exclude the possibility that in the near future, more than 2.5 billion people in 46 countries may find themselves in conflict zones because of the lack of fresh water and climate change.

Today, there are specific "water" conflicts and fierce disputes over fresh water reserves. According to some experts, deep divisions in this area might cause serious conflict between Central Asian states.

In April 2009 Almaty hosted a summit of the founder states of the International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). In discussing equitable water use (allocation of fresh water resources) in Central Asia, significant differences emerged between the fraternal countries. The shortage of water has become a serious problem for Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which are located in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Uzbekistan is categorically against the construction of powerful hydroelectric power facilities in the upper reaches of the region's trans-border rivers. According to Uzbek President Islam Karimov, after the commissioning of the Rogun hydroelectric power plant in Tajikistan and the Kambarata-1 and 2 hydroelectric power plants in Kyrgyzstan, the negative effects of these projects will aggravate the situation in the water and energy balance in the region and reduce the volume of water entering Uzbekistan. Therefore, Tashkent insists that before proceeding with the construction of large hydroelectric power stations, it is necessary to obtain the consent of neighbours and conduct an international study under UN auspices. In turn, having been in the grip of political and economic crisis almost throughout the post-Soviet period, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan cannot afford supplies of energy at world prices and, therefore, intend to develop their own hydropower. Uzbekistan's position is supported by Turkmenistan and, especially, Kazakhstan. According to some experts, the sharp division of the Central Asian countries into two groups on this issue will inevitably lead to a regional split.

What is disturbing is that this dispute may draw in other countries - on the side of one or other bloc. The problem of fresh water led to tough confrontations and armed clashes between Egypt and Sudan, Iraq and Syria, Iraq and Turkey and Syria and Turkey in the last century. The latest tensions associated with Turkey were due to the fact that in the 1990s, Ankara wanted to implement the Great Anatolia Project (construction of dams) in the basin of the Tigris and Euphrates. The basin of the Jordan River is also the subject of a long-lasting conflict between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. In the period from 1948 to 1955, during the first years of Israel's independence, regional countries failed to reach mutual understanding and create a regional plan for the development or distribution of water resources. In 1955, Israel established a national water company to divert water from the Jordan River to southern Israel and the Negev desert, where the population was constantly increasing. In response, Syria and Jordan began building a dam in 1964 to change the course of the Banias and Yarmouk Rivers and prevent Israel's national water company from achieving its goal. The tensions that arose from those actions caused the 1967 war. During the war, Israel bombed the dam, captured the Golan Heights, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and expanded its access to the Yarmouk and Jordan. This enabled Israel to strengthen its control of the three largest sources of fresh water, which include the sources and upper reaches of the Jordan River, about half of the Yarmouk River and the coastal area of the upper reaches of the Banias. As a result, Israel was able to implement a number of large irrigation projects. In the autumn of 2002, the construction of a water intake station by Lebanon on the Wazzani border river caused a sharp deterioration in relations with Israel. Tel Aviv said that water intake from Lebanese border rivers was reason enough to start a war. The conflict "brewed" for some time, but following the beginning of the last Israeli-Lebanese war, a dispute arose over the ownership of Shaba'a farms, an area rich in fresh water. After its withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, Israel retained control of this border area. Now it is not clear at all who has the legal right to use this land claimed by Israel, Lebanon and Syria. And all this is over fresh water reserves.

There are serious contradictions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Back in the late 1970s, Cairo threatened to bomb dams which Ethiopia was building on the upper reaches of the Nile with US support. Similar tensions took place between Egypt and Sudan in the mid-1990s. A lack of water and agricultural land was a significant factor in the tragic conflict that unfolded between Sudan and Chad. Incidentally, one of the biggest causes of tension associated with water resources is the discrepancy between the number of people and the amount of fresh water. As a result, local friction may arise, for example, between tribes over grazing rights or ownership of wells, as was the case in Ethiopia.

The boundaries that exist on the map in the Middle East and North Africa are largely a result of continuous conflicts over water, truces and peace plans. Water problems that threaten the national security and internal stability of states are becoming a catalyst for confrontations in the region. UN reports entitled "Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis" devote much attention to water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa. The region, which is home to 5 per cent of the world's population, has only 0.9 per cent of the world's water reserves. The number of countries in need of water in the Middle East and North Africa increased from three in 1955 (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) to 11 in 1990 (including Algeria, Somalia, Tunisia, the UAE and Yemen). It is expected that a further seven countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Oman and Syria) will join this list by 2025. In this context, the former British Defence Secretary, John Reid, predicted possible wars over fresh water in the next 20-30 years. Among the biggest hot spots is the Jordan River, which may give rise to serious conflict between Israel, Palestine and Jordan, as well as the Euphrates (Turkey - Syria), the Nile (Egypt - Ethiopia), the Brahmaputra (China - India), the Ganges (Bangladesh - India ) and the Okavango (Angola - Namibia).

Developed countries are also beginning to experience water shortages. Thus, the supply of fresh underground water in the US "melts" by 0.3 per cent a year. Among rapidly developing countries, China and India are very thirsty, despite the relative availability of water. The uneven distribution of water within the country and the large population are the "culprits". More than 300 cities in China are experiencing a shortage of fresh water. Pentagon specialists claim that global warming will lead to wars. After a quarter of a century, South America, Africa and Australia will continue to experience droughts. Cereal crops will fall by 25-30 per cent. The constant famine in Africa is also associated with the lack of life-giving water. Agriculture requires huge water resources. For example, in order to grow grain for one loaf of bread, you need to use about one ton of water and to grow a kilo of rice - half a ton.

In this context, it is impossible to ignore the occupation of 20 per cent of Azerbaijani territories, which creates very serious additional problems in ensuring fresh water supplies in the country. The occupied territories are important not only as military and strategic high-altitude areas. They are also areas where many fresh water arteries originate. This situation creates serious problems in providing fresh water to the population and the agricultural sector in districts surrounding these territories. According to many experts in the field of agriculture, it has already reduced the productivity of the agricultural sector by 30 per cent in these areas. The Tartar River that runs through the Armenian-occupied Kalbacar district is of special importance.

Given all these realities, there is no doubt that the shortage of one of the most important resources will lead to tensions in the world in the near future. It suffices to see what methods some countries have resorted to in the fight for traditional energy sources, to understand how fierce the struggle for fresh water will be. If without "black gold" mankind will "only" become poor, without the "oil of the future" it may simply die out. Proceeding from this assertion, the Oguz-Qabala-Baku water pipeline can be compared to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. The infrastructural projects being implemented in Azerbaijan show that the country is effectively investing its revenues from today's oil and gas in the future, including in the "oil of the future".