TWO KOREAS, ONE PROBLEM

The greatest upsurge in tension in the Korean Peninsula in the last 50 years has left the whole region face to face with the threat of large-scale war. Efforts by diplomats, who stepped in after the North Korean artillery bombardment of the South Korean island of Yonphendo in the Yellow Sea, are not helping. The situation is hotting up.

In recent weeks, the US has been trying not only to put pressure on China, Pyongyang's only "ally", but has been making every effort to display its military presence in the region, carrying out joint military exercises one after another.

Initially, the US military conducted exercises with South Korean troops. The manoeuvres were held from 28 November to 1 December, west of the South Korean coast. Washington and Seoul immediately announced plans for a new stage of exercises. This was followed by eight-day joint exercises with the Japanese navy, code-named "Keen Sword 2011". But the largest exercises in the last 25 years covered the island of Okinawa and involved South Korean military observers. Thus Washington highlighted its close partnership not only with Japan but also South Korea.

In this context, the position of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is quite significant. At a tripartite meeting with the foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan, she said that "the provocative and belligerent behaviour of North Korea threatens peace and security in Asia". The parties agreed that Pyongyang's actions were "a violation of the armistice agreement of 1953" and threatened it with "serious consequences".

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, openly declared that he had a "sense of urgency" about the need to strengthen cooperation on security between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul to deter North Korea.

The expert community in the West is also inclined to believe that in the event of a further significant deterioration in the economic situation in North Korea, Pyongyang might face a choice between an attack on the Republic of Korea and civil war. The North Korean leadership probably thinks that the US is unwilling to intervene, or will do so to a very limited extent, fearing a repeat of lessons from the first Korean War, when the Chinese sided with the northerners. It is possible that a nuclear attack would be launched against American troops and naval groups or on the territory of Japan where the US has bases.

For Pyongyang, the "nuclear programme" factor is certainly a trump card, especially if we remember that just a few days before the shelling of the South Korean island, the northerners displayed surprising openness. They showed the American physicist Siegfried Hecker several thousand centrifuges, used to enrich uranium at a plant in Yongbyon.

At the same time, it is wrong to assume that Pyongyang has completely rejected diplomacy. Open US pressure on North Korea's sole partner in the region - China - forced the northerners to seek support from another big neighbour - Russia.

In mid-December, Moscow was visited by North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun, who stated ahead of talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that his country was ready to rely on its nuclear programme to defend itself against the US and South Korea. The North Korean minister stressed that Washington's stance was the main obstacle to a resumption of six-party talks on a settlement in the Korean Peninsula.

As for Moscow, it urged North and South Korea to refrain from "actions that provoke tensions" and called for a resumption of the six-party talks.

In parallel, Pyongyang is continuing its active discussions with Beijing. Against the backdrop of escalating tensions, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il met a senior Chinese representative, Dai Bingo, who handed him a message from the Chinese leadership.

China's position is well known. China calls for urgent multilateral talks to defuse tensions in the Korean Peninsula, but Washington, Seoul and Tokyo reject the idea, saying that Pyongyang should not be rewarded for its aggressiveness. Only Moscow supported Beijing's proposal.

It is interesting that the controversial website WikiLeaks also tried to drive a wedge into relations between China and North Korea. According to a US diplomatic dispatch published in the Western media, China, South Korea and the US have allegedly held talks about a possible merger of the two Koreas. According to the website, Washington and Seoul think that a unification of the Koreas is possible, given the economic difficulties facing the DPRK and the political changes in the country.

With regard to China's interest in this matter, Seoul reportedly discussed trade incentives for Beijing to "help alleviate China's concerns about the prospects of having a unified Korea as a neighbour".

However, one should not overlook the "unfriendly" attitude of the current Seoul leadership towards the DPRK. Back in August, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak proposed a plan for unification with North Korea and expressed confidence that, despite ideological differences, the two Koreas would eventually unite. The South Korean president's plan suggested three stages. The first stage includes the establishment of peace and security in the peninsula, meaning first and foremost, the nuclear disarmament of the DPRK, the second stage - economic integration, aiming to boost the North Korean economy. After that, according to Lee Myung-bak, the Koreans would be able to overcome the differences between the two systems and create a unified state.

The South Korean leader offered to introduce a special tax to raise the funds necessary to implement unification. By some estimates, the creation of a unified Korea might cost Seoul over $1 trillion.

In parallel, the South Korean authorities decided to prepare seriously for possible new attacks by the DPRK. It was reported recently that all inhabitants of islands located near North Korea will be issued with gas masks. At present, according to the South Korean authorities, only 30-40 per cent of the population in the northern islands have such protection. In addition, on 15 December, civil defence exercises were held across the country to accommodate people in special bomb shelters.

Polls show that more than 60 per cent of South Koreans favour the creation of a unified state, but over the longer term, given the high costs involved.

Against this background, Tokyo's position is quite interesting. It views the worsening of the situation in the region and Washington's war plans without any great enthusiasm. The Japanese media quoted officials as claiming that it was too early to take part in new joint military exercises with the US and South Korea.

Indeed, multilateral military exercises are not directly related to the defence of Japan, and its constitution limits the use of armed forces to situations in which the country is threatened with invasion. However, Tokyo does not mind strengthening its air defence system, for which it needs Washington's support.

Japan's Ministry of Defence has already announced that it intends to deploy Patriot aerospace defence complexes across the country. These anti-aircraft missile complexes are currently installed at only three air force bases. Japan's defence programme for 2010 sees North Korean missiles as a "threat". Among the missiles possessed by North Korea, the Japanese authorities are particularly concerned about medium-range ballistic missiles, whose range is about 1,300 kilometres.

Washington's inability to win over Beijing, amid Moscow's open unwillingness to escalate the situation in the region, suggests that the best case scenario in the Korean Peninsula is to maintain the status quo.

It is quite possible that the efforts of China and Russia will soon lead to a resumption of consultations with the DPRK, which recently had a positive impact on the situation in the region. August 2003 saw the beginning of talks on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, involving high-ranking diplomats from Russia, North Korea, South Korea, USA, China and Japan. As a result, the DPRK not only froze its nuclear programme, but proceeded to dismantle the Yongbyon reactor.

However, the dialogue stalled in 2009 after the US and the DPRK failed to agree on how to verify North Korea's list of nuclear programmes, while Tokyo and Seoul refused to comply with obligations to supply fuel for power plants in exchange for North Korea giving up its nuclear programme. In response, Pyongyang said, in spring 2009, that negotiations were futile and it tested nuclear weapons.

The situation is forcing the US to give the green light to a "revival" of six-party nuclear negotiations with the DPRK, and this should be done with an eye to China's interests. There is still no alternative to diplomacy.