REGION OF TENSION

2014 was a year of upheaval in the Middle East. The region was gripped by a whole number of conflicts and wars which are leading to significant geopolitical shifts that threaten to impact on international stability and security.

The ghost of Islamic State

Exactly a year ago, at the beginning of January 2014, the world's media released a story that a unit of the al-Qa'eda terrorist organization had declared parts of the Iraqi province of Anbar the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL). This militarized structure, which conveys the ideas of the radical Salafi movement, openly expressed its intention to create a caliphate throughout the Islamic world. After occupying territories in north and north-west Iraq, Baghdad and the remaining part of Iraqi territory, as well as Syria, were named as the next targets of ISIL, which a little later renamed itself Islamic State (IS).

Basically, the emergence of an organization like IS on the political scene of the Middle East came about as a result of the bloody events which for four years had been unfolding in Syria. Al-Qa'eda, which had become notorious through its brutality in Iraq and had been virtually eliminated in 2004, re-emerged during the armed conflict in Syria. Various Salafi structures, including Jabhat an-Nusra and IS, which advocate so-called "jihadism" and operate in close inter-action with one another, cut their teeth in battle amid the powerful support which the external foes of the Syrian regime began to provide to its internal enemies.

There is convincing proof of a link between the ascent of IS in Iraq and the events in Syria. Together with Jabhat an-Nusra (the most bloodthirsty force within the Syrian opposition, which has virtually embarked on a path of the physical extermination of the supporters of President Bashar al-Assad and representatives of the traditional religions in Syria, especially the Shias), Islamic State not only extended its power to parts of Syrian territory but also took the decision to attack neighbouring Lebanon. It was motivated by a desire to force the Shia Hezbollah movement to cease its support for official Damascus and withdraw its forces from Syria. IS has not got as far as Lebanon (at least, not yet), whereas Syria has fully tasted the fruits of the "feats of arms" carried out by the "jihadis" of Islamic State.

Syria still in its sights

Meanwhile, over the past year in Syria there has been a radical shift in the civil war in favour of the government forces. A real possibility of a peaceful settlement to the Syrian conflict was established after the external powers, principally the US and Russia, which have interests there, agreed not to allow direct external military interference in the Syrian conflict provided all chemical weapons in Syria were destroyed. By the way, official Damascus successfully passed the test of the destruction of this arsenal. Against the background of this process, Moscow and Washington were able to organize a round of negotiations, provisionally entitled "Geneva-2", with the participation of representatives of the Syrian authorities and the moderate opposition.

Another important event in the kaleidoscope of the events in Syria was the holding on 3 June of the country's first ever presidential elections. Although several candidates took part in them for the post of head of state, there was no doubt from the outset about Bashar al-Assad's victory. He reaped extra dividends in the run-up to the elections from the new victories by the Syrian Army over the rebels, especially the liberation from the militants of the Christian town of Ma'loula.

However, the real opposition, both moderate and radical, did not recognize Assad's victory at the elections. It was also ignored in the West, especially the US, which insists on Assad's removal from the post of head of state as a necessary condition of a Syrian settlement.

But a much greater threat to Syria's future was presented by the expansion of the "Jihadist movement" which preaches a "war to the end" and is striving to create a clerical state. The positions of the Islamist radicals strengthened as a result of Islamic State's invasion of Syrian regions bordering on Turkey - events which provoked a new major war in this much-suffering country, but this time with the participation of the international coalition formed by the United States against IS. 

War of the new coalition

In setting out the strategy of the international anti-terrorist coalition, US President Barack Obama laid stress on air strikes against Islamist positions both in Iraq and Syria. Washington's desire to broaden the scale of its military operation against IS through Syrian territory led to a supposition that Washington was using the war against the terrorists scrambling for power in Iraq and seeking to seize neighbouring countries to solve its own geopolitical tasks with regard to Syria. Incidentally, Turkey, too, is openly pursuing this same goal including, first and foremost, the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

At first Ankara stated that it would not take part in ground or any other combat operations against IS in Iraq. There are, of course, a number of grounds for Turkey's decision to distance itself from direct involvement in a new military campaign under the aegis of the US. First of all, one should note a reluctance to participate in the process of strengthening Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, which is inevitable in the context of the military operation to eradicate IS.

However, later, in response to the sharp exacerbation of the situation in Syria, and the establishment of partial control by the radicals over the Syrian town of Kobani, which is populated mainly by Kurds, Turkey announced its intention to join the war against IS. It is significant that the Kurds and the pro-American coalition were counting precisely on Turkey as a power capable of squeezing out the radical Islamists from the Kurdish populated regions of Syria occupied by the latter. However, after the Turkish parliament handed over a mandate to the country's armed forces to carry out cross-border operations in Syria and Iraq, official Ankara did not join in direct armed actions against IS. The reason is all to do with this same Syrian conflict - Ankara has made it clear that it links the ground operation against IS with the aim to overthrow the Syrian regime. And, by all accounts, the nature of the war of the international coalition against IS will depend on to what extent the western allies use the new anti-terrorist campaign as an instrument of an offensive on the positions of the Syrian government forces. 

Israel, Palestine and the unending conflict

Meanwhile, the core of the regional conflict - the stand-off between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and the whole Arab world in the broad sense - continues to actively impact on the overall panorama of Middle Eastern politics.

In the summer, Israel carried out another military operation - Protective Edge - in the Gaza Strip. The main objective of the operation was the removal of the military facilities and infrastructure of the Hamas movement. The Israelis failed to fully achieve their tasks, just as they failed in Operation Cast Lead six years ago. However, they still struck a blow against the united Palestinian leadership. In point of fact, Tel Aviv resorted to its latest military campaign soon after the two leading Palestinian organizations Fatah and Hamas had created their government of national unity. Effectively, the Palestinian radicals, who are perceived by the Israelis as terrorists, received virtual legitimization. 

In Israel itself, meanwhile, one of the most uncompromising politicians in the country - Reuven Rivlin - who is calling for an extension of the Jewish settlements, took office as head of state. He had to begin his work in rather adverse international conditions inasmuch as Tel Aviv's military operation, which has led to heavy casualties among the Palestinian civilian population, was generally condemned by the international community. Moreover, a number of countries, mainly members of the European Union, began to raise more strongly the question of the need to recognize Palestine's independence. By the end of the past year Sweden had already recognized Palestine as an independent state. Similar resolutions have also been adopted by parliaments in Britain, Ireland, Spain and France. Europe, as is known, traditionally condemns Israel for its occupation of Palestinian territory and, moreover, believes that recognition of Palestine will persuade Tel Aviv to seek a compromise with Ramallah more actively.  

The momentary calm in the Holy Land, which was established soon after the completion of Israel's military operation, flared up again in November when clashes began in the Temple Mount region of the Islamic holy places - the Al-Aqsa and Qubbat as-Sahra mosques. Arab politicians see the reason for the escalation of the situation in Israel's desire to review the status quo in the Temple Mount region. Israel, for its part, denies that it is pursuing such plans and places all responsibility for the continuation of the conflict on the Palestinian radicals.

The protraction of a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, which the mediatory efforts of the so-called "Middle East quartet" (the US, Russia, the EU and the UN) have been unable to overcome, only reaffirms the need for a fundamental solution to the key problems of the conflict. These include, first and foremost, the status of Jerusalem, the construction of the Jewish settlements on the West Bank and the creation of a Palestinian state. Unless these questions can be resolved on the basis of the principles of international law, there can be no possibility of a Middle East settlement.