THE NUANCES OF MISSILE DEFENCE DIPLOMACY

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has urged member countries to back the creation of a missile-defence system to protect Europe and North America. The remarks trigged debates indicating the burning nature of matters concerning Euro-Atlantic security.

Surprise from Turkey

Rasmussen said that the danger of missile strikes against Europe was rising and the creation of "an efficient missile defence system is a challenge which can be dealt with".

The issue will be debated at the NATO summit in Lisbon on 19-20 November. Meanwhile, Turkey has found itself at the centre of an intrigue which is developing as preparations for the summit continue.

The point is that the USA - the main force in the Euro-Atlantic missile-defence system - wants some elements of the anti-missile shield to be based in Turkey as well as in Europe. Washington even made such a proposal to Ankara, but the latter turned it down. At least for now.

The reason is Ankara's unwillingness to be involved in a project that might become clearly anti-Iranian or anti-Russian. Turkish diplomats say openly that they cannot accept Iran, Syria and Russia being viewed as states posing a missile threat. "We do not see any danger coming from neighbouring countries to the security of Turkey or NATO member states," said Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

Ankara strongly opposes the idea of naming any country as a threat to the alliance. That is understandable - Turkey is keeping to its foreign policy doctrine of "zero problems with neighbours" and does not want to be involved in projects that may spoil its ties with neighbouring states. Ankara makes it clear that it will back the US and NATO's new missile-defence plan only if it is convinced that there is a real threat to all NATO members. Turkey also wants the planned missile-defence system to protect its territory in full, not in part, if need be (i.e. if a real threat is proved to exist).

Meanwhile, the USA hopes that Turkey's refusal to station the missile-defence system on its territory is not its final decision. US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates said his country would not ask Turkey to allocate new bases for missile-defence systems, "but we expect Turkey to back NATO plans to create a territorial missile-defence potential in Lisbon". 

The US Assistant Undersecretary of Defence for European and NATO policy, James Townsend, made some very interesting remarks. He said Turkey would have to decide on at least two issues at the Lisbon summit. First is Turkey's vote on stationing NATO missile-defence elements on its territory, and second is the role that Turkey wants to play in the process. "The US views Turkey's behaviour not as uncertainty and resistance, but as an attempt to balance something which it knows is important for European, transatlantic and Turkish security and its compliance with Turkey's political plans for the region," said Townsend.

Probably trying to persuade Turkey into approving the NATO initiative, the USA, as reported by Israeli media, told Turkey that reconnaissance data on missiles to be deployed in Turkey as part of the missile-defence system would not be given to Israel. 

At the same time, Ankara's stubbornness may be regarded as another message to Europe. Turkish political expert Sertak Aktan said Ankara might use the situation for its own interests and propose limited cooperation on the project in exchange for US pressure on France and Germany to unfreeze Turkey's application for EU membership. The expert puts the quite reasonable question: why should Turkey station "new missiles for Europe? Europe where we aspire to be, but cannot get admission."

Europe clearly understands Turkey's increasing importance for European security.

There is a clear dissonance between the desire to use Turkey to repel possible threats from the Middle East and the unwillingness to admit Turkey to the EU. But it has to be solved one way or another. In any case Mark Leonard, the co-author of a new report by the European Council on Foreign Affairs, is sure that "Turkey is a growing regional state. To keep Turkey onside, Brussels should accelerate the process of its admission to the EU."

But France and Germany are still blocking Turkey's admission to the EU. The two countries are now much more interested in Russia, to be more precise, in the development of partnership with the "great eastern partner" as the need for a new, unified European security system is growing.

"From Vancouver to Vladivostok"

France and Germany backed Rasmussen's idea to set up a "missile-defence shield from Vancouver to Vladivostok" by uniting the US missile-defence system with that of NATO and with national missile-defence systems in Europe, including even Russia.

In a special communiqu?, the Elysee Palace voiced its hope that "a decision may be made in Lisbon on the basis of a realistic project which corresponds to the change in the missile threat, which may be caused by certain projects in the Middle East". President Sarkozy believes that the implementation of the project must be accompanied by "a dialogue with Russia aimed at cooperation".

Thus, a closer strategic dialogue between Europe and Russia - which has been developing since the start of the post-Soviet era - is quite possible. "French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have long-standing disagreements. But it seems they are unanimous about one thing: Europe needs Russia to maintain its significance in the international arena and peace in its backyard," says the New York Times.

A trilateral meeting of French, German and Russian leaders in Deauville has shown Paris and Berlin's preparedness to expand the dialogue with Moscow. Although it is a difficult task to reconcile the Europeans' Atlantic bias with Russian involvement in the EU security system, common threats and interests make for a strategic rapprochement between Europe and Russia.

The French paper Ouest-France says "France - which keeps to its containment force - wants to reconcile Atlantic solidarity with efforts to back Russia's European aspirations." "The reforming president, Dmitriy Medvedev, has changed the Kremlin's style so much over the past two years that the world has almost forgotten Vladimir Putin's tough manners… The world has changed and Russia has changed as well. Moscow needs foreign investment and partners and it has turned to Berlin and Paris in the first instance. The Kremlin intends to be involved - economically, politically, strategically and militarily - in the formation of a new balance of forces in Europe." 

Immediately after the meeting with Sarkozy and Merkel, Medvedev voiced Russia's readiness to consider NATO's proposal on missile defence. But he added "it is still too early to speak about any specific forms of cooperation".

Meanwhile, the idea of creating one missile-defence system in Europe has triggered talks about Russia's possible admission to NATO - something that seemed absurd yesterday. Russia's Chief of General Staff, Nikolay Makarov, mentioned the issue in an interview with Russia's Channel One TV. "It is too early yet to raise the issue - the country and society are not ready," he said. But analysts viewed the word "yet" as a key word in his remark, indicating that the country's top political and military leaders do not rule out the possibility of Russia joining NATO in the foreseeable future. The reason is obvious. As Makarov said "Russia and NATO have many common threats and challenges".

In late October, General Makarov visited Brussels to attend a meeting of the EU chiefs of staff. The Russian media recalled that he had visited the NATO headquarters in Brussels in early 2010. Following the talks there, military ties between Russia and NATO - which were frozen after the Russian-Georgian war in 2008 - were fully restored. Moscow and Brussels signed agreements on holding regular command and staff exercises to test the compatibility and interaction of troops, and exchanges of officers for training and other events.

In September 2010 important Russia-USA and Russia-NATO agreements were reached during Russian Defence Minister Anatoliy Serdyukov's visit to Washington. Agreements on the expansion of NATO transit to Afghanistan through Russia were signed, and the creation of a European missile-defence system and joint use of the Qabala radar station in Azerbaijan were discussed during the visit. 

Following the talks, a US representative suggested that Azerbaijan's Qabala radar station might be part of NATO's missile warning system.

The USA's interest in joint use of the Qabala radar was officially confirmed by Robert Gates. In his opinion, neither Russia's plans to create new ballistic missiles, nor the US programme of missile-defence systems in Europe contradicts the two countries' partnership.