PEACE SCENARIO

Theodore Karasik is currently Director of Research and Development at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA). He has worked on issues of security and terrorism concerning Central Asia, Russia, the Caucasus and Arabian Peninsula for 20 years. Since the 9/11 attacks, Dr Karasik has also concentrated on terrorist tactics and the targeting of critical infrastructure in the United States, Europe and the GCC states. 

Dr Karasik has a background in basic geology and petroleum geology, directly related to his previous work on the Caspian and Persian Gulf regions. He served as an expert on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia for the US Library of Congress.

This is not a full record of the experience of an expert whom we asked to comment on some issues of regional and global importance. But even this much information is enough to understand how well Dr Karasik knows his subject. His comments helped us to get a better understanding of the real state of affairs.

- The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf represents six Arabic states. What do you think they have managed to achieve against Iran so far? Further, what is the real point of their policy against Iran?

- The GCC, although not always acting in unison, is making great strides to protect itself from a possible Iranian attack. They are making headway in the areas of military superiority, which is most important. In addition, they are working hard to avoid any possible Iranian incursion. The real aim is to prevent Tehran from establishing regional hegemony and influencing events in the GCC states. So far, there has been much success and when Iran, for example, makes noises about the Shiites of Bahrain, this is for Iranian domestic consumption.

- Is Iran's desire to take control of the Persian Gulf realizable? 

- At this juncture, no. It is important to remember that the Iranian expatriate communites of the GCC, as well as the Shiites, are not supportive of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

- In one of your interviews, you said Iran's nuclear weapon is more dangerous for the Arab states than for the USA and Western countries. How do you substantiate your opinion?

- There are two scenarios here. One is that Iran would use a weapon somewhere locally with resultant catastrophe, or there could be an accident resulting in radioactive contamination, or both. Moreover, whatever happens, the US and Western countries will get sucked into any regional conflict that happens to go nuclear from the Iranian side.

- What punitive sanctions may be imposed on Iran in the near future?

- There only appears to be one option now. Military attack by aircraft on specific nuclear targets and IRGC assets. Sanctions are unlikely to work.

- Some analysts consider that the USA has failed in its Iraq and Afghanistan policies. If that is true, what results may the USA get from its Iran policy?

- The US's credibility in the region is at stake and you can already hear rumblings from policymakers about a new regional architecture for safety and security in the national interest.

- The Arab states declare Nagornyy Karabakh to be an integral part of Azerbaijan, both within international organisations and in bilaterial relations. But when it comes to a solution of the conflict, the West and Russia play the main role? Why?

- The reason is that Arab states may say they support Azerbaijan on Nagornyy Karabakh, but there is no follow-through from them. The OIC, for example, although it means well and is very important, has no teeth. This means that the West and Russia take a bigger, more proactive interest because of their status in world and regional politics today.

- What authority do the Arab countries have in the world today? Are they capable of influencing the solution of any conflict?

- The Arab countries of the GCC possess the ability to help influence the solution of any regional conflict, whether in the Persian Gulf or the Caspian Basin. The two areas are interlinked by history, energy, cultural anthropology, and transnational concerns. Arab states have a vested interest in conflict resolution and you see that two of them - the UAE and Qatar - are playing very active roles. These roles will only grow in the future as regional tensions rise and the global economic crisis begins to reverse.