AFTER 30 YEARS

12 September is once more a fateful day for Turkey. Exactly 30 years ago to the day, the country experienced another military coup which outlawed political parties and adopted a constitution limiting a number of civil liberties; to change it a new generation was required.

The turnout at the current referendum which changed the country's basic law was 77 per cent, and 58 per cent of them said "yes" to the 26-point package of amendments developed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Thus voters expressed their support for the current prime minister for the sixth consecutive time.

In the 11 most volatile south-eastern regions of the country, populated mostly by ethnic Kurds, the level of support for the amendments reached 95 per cent. The western and southern coasts of the republic traditionally support opposition forces, while the country's third largest city, Izmir, confirmed its image as a "fortress of Erdogan's opponents". Here, 63.47 per cent of citizens voted against the amendments.

In Istanbul, 54.84 per cent of voters supported the ruling party's package of proposals, while in Ankara support reached 54.23 per cent.

Voters in 63 provinces said "yes" to amendments to the basic law, and only 18 provinces rejected the government's proposals.

The opposition's campaign against the referendum, calling for a boycott of the vote, bore no fruit. In principle, opinion polls predicted success for the ruling party, although by a smaller margin, but there are some clear differences about Erdogan's current victory.

For the first time in recent years, the ruling party focused all its resources to influence the organizations and individuals that carry weight in Turkish society. Particular emphasis in this case was placed on the leaders of trade unions and confederations of industrialists who are traditionally able to change the balance of forces in favour of the opposition, since 12 per cent of voters were undecided until the last day.

An important factor was that almost all media outlets favoured the amendments to the constitution. In recent weeks, leading newspapers and magazines published messages urging support for the proposals, and this while the price of one such full-page message could cost 30,000 dollars.

The ruling party used every opportunity to campaign, including iftars. The JDP was simultaneously able to exploit the anniversary of the military coup, which the older generation still remembers.

The weaknesses of the opposition, which turned the lead-up to the referendum into an election campaign, also played into the hands of the prime minister's supporters. What's more, the circle of the prime minister's opponents, who actively campaigned against the adoption of the package of constitutional changes, was limited to the leaders of opposition parties. The fact that the authorities' opponents did not want to allocate large budgets for campaigning against the government's initiative did not go unnoticed either. Supporters of the Nationalist Action Party were not seen at all.

Besides, during all 120 days of the campaign, leading TV channels kept the popular critics of the government off the screen, not least due to the financial resources behind the ruling party's campaign and the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself.

All this resulted in a majority of voters supporting the package of amendments, although, as some polls show, 80 per cent of the population did not even grasp the essence of the government's proposals.

With regard to the proposed reforms, the civil courts are now able to try the military for crimes against the country. The reform also repeals Article 15 of the constitution, which guaranteed immunity for the 1980 coup organizers. Further, retired officers will be able to file suits with the civil courts, while deputies elected to parliament will be able to keep their seats even if their party is banned by a court.

The biggest controversy was caused by plans to change the composition of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors, which is responsible for appointing judges.

The draft package of reforms suggested that the Constitutional Court would be expanded from 11 to 19 members. Of these, 16 would be appointed by the president and 3 by the parliament. The number of members of the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors would increase from 7 to 22.

The controversy around the restructuring of the judicial system is not coincidental. After all, the courts had become a major obstacle to many of the reforms that the prime minister attempted to enact over the past eight years. This applies, in particular, to the notorious lifting of the ban on Muslim headscarves in public places.

Given that new members of the Constitutional Court will be appointed at a time when the ruling party controls 60 per cent of the seats in parliament and the presidency, the political preferences of the leading bodies of the judiciary may change overnight.

In 2008, the ruling party narrowly escaped a ban on its political activities by the Constitutional Court, getting away with a fine. This action was initiated by judges who argued that the ruling party was leading Turkey towards an Islamic state. The prosecutor supported the initiative, but the opponents of the Islamization of society fell short by just one vote of outlawing Erdogan's party.

As expected, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his chief opponent - the leader of the Republican People's Party (RPP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu - secured voters' support in their home provinces. The government's initiatives were backed by 76.05 per cent of voters in Rize, the prime minister's native province, while 80.83 per cent of residents of Tunceli Province, where Kilicdaroglu was born, on the contrary, said "no" to the proposals.

Incidentally, the leader of the Republican People's Party did not take part in the voting, which also dealt a blow to the image of the opposition.

According to RPP representatives, Kemal Kilicdaroglu could not find his name on the voting lists. As it turned out, after his election as RPP leader, Kilicdaroglu had changed his place of residence, which was not noted by the local authorities. As a result, the government's main opponent simply did not get a chance to exercise his right to vote.

Subsequently, Kilicdaroglu said that he was upset by the outcome of the voting, and asked his supporters to forgive him for not going to the polls. "With the decision to adopt amendments that satisfy only half the people in the country, Turkey cannot move forward. But I respect the outcome of the referendum. If early elections are announced, we are ready to fight," he said.

By the way, there were some incidents. The law enforcement authorities arrested more than 200 people who tried to sabotage the referendum.

In the south-eastern province of Batman, 54 people were arrested for their role in a campaign to intimidate the population. They sent out threatening letters demanding a boycott of the voting. In Van Province, 20 more people were arrested for calling on people not to participate in the referendum. In the neighbouring province of Sirnak, a group of people who refused to vote provoked clashes with the police, throwing a firebomb at the police. The police used tear gas and water cannons. Similar clashes occurred in the province of Mardin. A large number of offenders were detained in Istanbul. They also tried to force the population to boycott the referendum, according to Interior Minister Basir Atalay.

The first politician to make a statement was the leader of the opposition Nationalist Action Party, Devlet Bahceli. He said that "Turkey has entered a period full of darkness and danger." "The grave consequences of such developments are clear. We warn the prime minister about this and urge him to call early parliamentary elections," Bahceli said.

By the way, residents of Bahceli's home province of Osmaniye did not support his position and said "yes" to the amendments.

Erdogan, in turn, said that "after the feast marking the end of the month of Ramadan, a feast of democracy has appeared". "The turnout was about 77-78 per cent. In the last referendum, this figure was around 67 per cent. We have crossed a historical threshold in our struggle for the rule of the law and the future of democracy," Erdogan said.

He recalled that the day of the referendum was the anniversary of the 1980 military coup, after which the existing constitution was adopted. "Everyone has won: those who said 'no' and those who said 'yes'. The losers are only those who resist change and hold putschist views. For Turkish democracy, it is a new page," the prime minister underlined.

The European Union welcomed the results of Sunday's referendum on constitutional reform in Turkey, describing it as "a step towards joining the EU". The voting demonstrated "the sustained commitment of Turkish citizens to reforms aimed at improving their rights and freedoms", said European Enlargement Commissioner Stefan F?le.

At the same time, he observed that a lot will depend on the implementation of the changes made to the basic law. F?le added that "the EU will do everything in its power to assist it". US President Barack Obama chose to personally congratulate Erdogan, calling him in connection with the outcome of the referendum.

In conclusion, I would like to note that the current referendum is unlikely to be the last in a series of changes to basic Turkish law and is just a springboard for complete renewal. Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not hide this. He noted that in the event of victory in the 2011 general elections, he will initiate the adoption of a new version of the constitution. The results of the referendum will greatly strengthen Erdogan's position. His Justice and Development Party intends to remain in power for a third term after the July 2011 elections. 

The current situation has a very serious economic background. After all, it was precisely after Erdogan came to power in 2002 that Turkey entered a period of rapid economic growth and stability. During this time, the country's GDP has tripled. Therefore, the business community and the growing middle class bank on an Erdogan victory. They hope that the success of the reforms will contribute to future prosperity and attract more foreign capital.