COMMON SENSE

Dmitriy Medvedev, President of the Russian Federation, paid a visit to Azerbaijan on 2-3 September. Although this was already his third visit to our country since being elected head of the Russian state, it attracted close attention from the general public, media and analysts.

This was largely to do with the fact that President Medvedev had paid a state visit to Armenia in late August and signed an agreement there to extend the term of the lease for the military base in Gyumri. Armenian politicians and analysts interpreted this as a broadening of Russian guarantees in the eventuality of resumed military action in Nagornyy Karabakh and also as a commitment to freely provide the Armenian army with weapons and hardware.

Considering the fact that the Armenians, in essence, rejected the compromise proposals contained in the Minsk Group's updated Madrid principles for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, the signing of the Armenian-Russian agreement on extending use of the military base in Gyumri appeared to be indirect encouragement of the obstinacy and obstructive behaviour of Serzh Sargsyan's government. The Azerbaijani leadership and public expected explanations during the Russian president's visit to Baku.

They were given directly and publicly. In the presence of journalists, Dmitriy Medvedev noted the great importance for Russia of stability in the Caucasus.

"We are interested in peace and order here. This is exactly how the results of my visit to Armenia should be viewed. There are no underlying or other considerations here," the Russian president said. He also stressed that the signing of the agreement with the Armenian side does not change any conditions of principle in the agreement: "It only means one thing - the lease on the base will be prolonged by several years."

The Russian leader's visit to Azerbaijan worked to a full programme and included discussion of issues relating to bilateral relations and an exchange of opinions on problems of regional security and cooperation. The head of the Russian state was accompanied by the deputy prime minister and presidential plenipotentiary to the North Caucasus, Aleksandr Khloponin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Energy Minister Sergey Shmatko, and Gazprom president Aleksey Miller. In view of Azerbaijan's durable ties with many Russian regions, the official delegation also included the leaders of Dagestan and Ingushetia.

On day one of the visit, an official reception was held at the Gulustan palace in honour of Russian Federation President Dmitriy Medvedev and his wife Svetlana Medvedeva. Official talks were held on day two, first between the presidents only and then including members of the delegations. Upon their completion, there was a ceremonial signing of agreed documents, and a news conference was held.

Medvedev visited the Avenue of Honour, paid tribute to the memory of Heydar Aliyev and laid a wreath on his grave. Among other ceremonial events that should be noted was the awarding of the Russian Federation president with the degree of doctor by Baku State University; the diploma was solemnly presented to him in the presence of the faculty and student body.

Upon the completion of official talks, the Russian and Azerbaijani leaders, together with their wives, took a stroll round the historical part of the city; they viewed Maiden Tower, the caravanserai and the Old Mosque and visited the Arts Centre. Then they took a ride on a motortruck along the seaside promenade, viewing the sights of old and new Baku and the seaside panorama.

At first sight Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan may not seem so fruitful. Although the signing of an agreement on gas supplies and another fixing the borders between the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan and regulating water intake from the borderline River Samur, is  important in the context of the development of bilateral relations, it does not imply a qualitatively new level. However, it spoke volumes that presidents Ilham Aliyev and Dmitriy Medvedev publicly demonstrated their good personal relations and repeatedly stressed the strategic nature of the partnership between the two states.

It is obvious that Moscow does not expect, either now or in the future, movement from Azerbaijan towards the Russian military and political orbit. Baku maintains the multi-vector nature of its foreign policy. Thus, at the joint news conference on the results of the talks, President Ilham Aliyev deemed it necessary to stress that the increase in gas supplies to Russia should not be interpreted politically and that we have enough reserves to provide other directions, too, including the European gas pipeline Nabucco which competes with the Russian South Stream project.

Nothing specific was said in the summary of President Dmitriy Medvedev's visit about the possible supply to Azerbaijan of the S-300 Favorit air defence system, about military and technical cooperation, or about the future fate of the Qabala radar station, whose lease expires in 2012. However, news agencies reported that these issues continue to be the subject of intensive work.

The topics discussed by the presidents included the course of the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the situation concerning Iran and the problem of delimiting interests and the status of the Caspian Sea. Concerning the status of the Caspian, some prospects are apparently discernible, since it was announced after the presidential talks that a top-level summit of Caspian states could take place in Baku even before the end of this year. However, as expected, nothing revolutionary happened concerning the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Some of our analysts claim that the Russian leadership simulated constructiveness, giving Azerbaijan the illusion that it is ready to use its influence to bring the Armenians to a compromise acceptable to Azerbaijan. In reality, Russia played the diplomatic game of temporizing in order to preserve the existing situation. This is quite a convincing explanation, albeit not the only one.

I cannot rule out that the growing uncertainty and tension over Iran's nuclear programme might have impelled Moscow to take a break from the Karabakh settlement. If the process moves towards the dangerous scenario of a military clash, regional geopolitics may change radically. Such a course of events is fraught not only with major risks but also, depending on the success or failure of the USA and NATO, certain possibilities for Russia.

One can presume that President Medvedev tried to persuade the Azerbaijani leadership to wait a little. He linked this to the difficult situation facing Serzh Sargsyan who, given the current sentiment among Armenians, apparently cannot consent to the Madrid principles without running the risk of losing power. The Russian leader denied that the recent Russian-Armenian military agreement depended on Yerevan's observable obstinacy on the Karabakh settlement. He noted that meetings between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, with the participation of the Russian president, had become regular. He also stressed that "the intensity of these contacts should not decrease and Russia is ready to honour its commitments within the Minsk Group".

President Ilham Aliyev thanked his Russian counterpart for his mediating mission. "I am confident that the Russian president's personal participation plays a positive role, and talks with his involvement are the most effective," he said.

At the same time, one cannot forget previous statements by Ilham Aliyev that we will have to rely more on our own strengths. Azerbaijan's economic, diplomatic and military strengths are increasing and we are in a position not only to bear the burden of the conflict but also to increase pressure on the opposing side in every respect. It is Yerevan which has difficulty in enduring counteraction from Baku and it has to resort increasingly often to external help.

The ongoing occupation of Azerbaijani territories by Armenia, not for nothing known as Russia's "outpost" in the region, is telling upon Azerbaijani-Russian relations, too, in one way or another. Despite this, the Russian-Azerbaijani partnership cannot be held hostage to the Karabakh conflict and Armenian ambitions. Russia is the only world power directly bordering on Azerbaijan. Despite the hard consequences of the 2009 year of crisis in the global economy, trade between the two countries is growing dynamically. Mutually beneficial cooperation in the energy sphere is advancing. The Russian language and culture have remained more widespread in Azerbaijan than in the other states of the South Caucasus. About 200,000 Russians live in our country and many hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis live temporarily or permanently in Russia for economic, educational and other reasons. Therefore, while strengthening the strategic partnership with fraternal Turkey and developing relations with the USA, NATO and the EU, Azerbaijan is not allowing any reduction in the level of relations with Russia. Baku believes that pro-Armenian sentiments in certain circles in that country need to be juxtaposed with its specific interests and benefits from the partnership with Azerbaijan. This is especially important in the eventuality of a failure of talks and a military option opening up for the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories.

The Yerevan-based newspaper "168 Zham" has noted that, unlike the Armenian-Russian alliance, the Azerbaijani-Russian strategic partnership has a specific, bilateral and mutually beneficial economic filling. The newspaper described as Yerevan's public humiliation the fact that in parallel with signing the agreement on increased supplies of Azerbaijani natural gas to Russia, Gazprom announced a forthcoming increase in the price of the gas it supplies to Armenia. Other newspapers said that Armenia had received only a piece of paper extending the term of use of the military base in Gyumri for another 24 years, whereas Azerbaijan is negotiating with Russia the supply of an important defence system like the S-300 Favorit.

In conclusion, we should note that affinity and good relations between leaders and peoples are undoubtedly important in politics. It is good that these are present in Azerbaijani-Russian relations. However, in the long term, interests determine states' policies and it is important to use the two countries' economic, resource and geopolitical advantages and opportunities to this end as fully as possible.