UKRAINE BREAKUP

The military conflict in eastern Ukraine is becoming increasingly fierce. Reports coming from Ukraine resemble nothing but the summary of hostilities. The growth in intensity of bombardment is accompanied by increased numbers of victims of a fratricidal war, the blame for which Kiev officials and Donbass separatists pin on each other.

According to official UN data alone, more than 5,000 civilians have been killed since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. Despite the grave consequences of the ongoing war, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine says that it "builds up reserves in all places where the fighting is going on" while Donbass separatists warn about the intention to "push the front line further away." It is clear that the measures declared by the parties to the conflict are fraught with even greater destructions and suffering of civilians.

Russia, which is accused by Kiev of supporting Donbass separatists, says that the reason for the sharp deterioration of the situation in the south-east of Ukraine is the desire of the Ukrainian authorities to resolve the conflict by military means. In the opinion of Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed during his telephone conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, the Ukrainian authorities have embarked on violent suppression of Donbass. Moscow still believes that the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is only possible through a political dialogue between Kiev and representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

But such an approach is totally contrary to the position of Kiev which demands the immediate cessation of Russia's interference in the internal affairs of Ukraine. The country's authorities do not intend to enter into direct negotiations with the self-proclaimed "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, which are viewed by Kiev as "terrorist organizations".

In order to regain control over the south-east of the country, the government of Ukraine has taken the decision to introduce a state of emergency in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Of course, this move of Kiev has been flatly rejected by Donbass militias who view this action of the Ukrainian authorities as the desire to completely isolate the "people's republics" and to establish control over the movements of the Donbass residents.

The refusal of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to accept a deal proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin can be regarded as an indicator of the deepening alienation between Moscow and Kiev, which apparently has already become irreversible. The corresponding letter of the Russian leader addressed to his Ukrainian counterpart primarily contained an appeal to withdraw heavy weapons from the front line.

Mutual recriminations and refutation of the arguments contained in the criticism of the opposing party make options to overcome the escalation of hostilities in south-eastern Ukraine only more confusing. Meanwhile, the international background characterized by ever increasing confrontation between Russia and the West is not conducive to rapprochement of positions of the opposing forces in Ukraine either.

Commenting on the situation in eastern Ukraine at a recent meeting with St Petersburg students, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kiev refuses to follow the path of peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbass and that the Ukrainian army is in fact a NATO legion which pursues the geopolitical objective of Russia's containment rather than national interests of Ukraine.

The answer to this statement came directly from Brussels, from the headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance. After completion of an extraordinary meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Commission, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Putin's statement about the presence of the Alliance's legion in Ukraine. He went on to voice an opinion that completely coincided with charges levelled by Kiev: "In recent weeks, Russia has supplied hundreds of pieces of advanced equipment, including rocket systems, heavy artillery, tanks, armoured vehicles and electronic warfare systems. We call on Russia to stop its support for the separatists immediately, to stop destabilizing Ukraine and to respect its international commitments".

However, Stoltenberg did not focus on the issue of "geopolitical containment" raised by Putin, though elements of such pressure from the West are all there. The fact that the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has extended its decision of last April and deprived the delegation of the Russian Federation of the right to vote and participate in the governing bodies of the organization also points to the desire of the West to isolate Russia politically. In response, Moscow is considering the suspension of the Russian delegation's work at PACE for a year and even the expediency of its further membership in the Council of Europe.

However, the confrontation between Russia and the West in the arena of economic struggle takes on a much more acute character. The US and EU are clearly aiming to bring Russia to the full economic degradation by tightening sanctions imposed against this country. In particular, the leaders of the EU member states instructed their respective foreign ministers to consider the possibility of extending anti-Russian sanctions as a response to Moscow's continuing support of Donbass separatists.

At an extraordinary meeting of the foreign ministers of the EU countries dedicated to the issue of Ukraine held in Brussels on 29 January, it was decided to extend the validity of individual sanctions against Russia and separatists until September 2015. However, the discussion of this issue once again demonstrated the existence of serious contradictions within the EU about Russia's role in the Ukrainian events. Thus, at the insistence of Greece, the requirement to impose new sanctions against Russia and attempts to make Russia directly responsible for the situation in Ukraine were removed from the document. While the position of Athens tallies with the negative impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the economy of Greece itself, the other reason for this phenomenon is also obvious. The new Greek government dominated by the left-wing coalition SYRIZA is trying to have the country's views considered in the European policy. It is no coincidence that Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias said that the policy of Brussels towards Russia is "formulated outside of EU institutions and is based on the interests of individual countries", and therefore "this strategy should be changed".

It is too early to tell whether European policy can really be changed under the influence of the Greek stubbornness. Yet the truth lies not only in the fact that Brussels has failed to adopt new sanctions against Russia as a result of the dissenting opinion of Athens but also in the fact that the foreign ministers of most EU countries continue to prepare an extended list of pinpoint sanctions against individuals and entities in connection with the crisis in Ukraine. Hence, anti-Russian strategy as a general trend in EU policy shall remain in force. In any case, the final decision on the entire range of sanction issues is expected to be adopted by the foreign ministers of the EU member states at the next ministerial meeting on 9 February. EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Federica Mogherini has confirmed that the EU is ready to enhance or reduce sanctions against Russia, depending on the situation in Ukraine.

A discussion of the possible consequences for Russia of tightening of Western sanctions has overshadowed the issue of the economic situation in Ukraine itself. Kiev has found itself in a no less complicated situation caused primarily by the fact that the global financial centres, which promised Ukraine all possible financial assistance at the beginning of last year's "Maidan", now demonstrate certain scepticism on this issue. Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde has signalled that the IMF is not ready to allocate funds for Ukraine amid continuing hostilities in Donbass. According to Lagarde, in determining the financial support for Kiev in the spring of 2014, IMF experts proceeded from the fact that the conflict in the south-east of Ukraine would be finished before winter.

Only the United States is trying to prevent a total economic collapse of Ukraine, while seeking to completely consolidate its influence on the official Kiev. Washington decided to provide Ukraine with 2bn dollars in the form of loan guarantees.

Furthermore, the US is ready to provide assistance to Ukraine for the restoration of infrastructure affected by fighting in the eastern regions of the country. This issue was discussed at a meeting of Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure Andriy Pyvovarskyy with US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Payette.

Promises notwithstanding, the continuation of the armed conflict in Donbass will not allow Ukraine to embark on meaningful economic development. This fact only imparts urgency to the need of achieving at least some breakthrough in the talks on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis at various negotiation venues. One of such venues can still be the Astana summit with the participation of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. However, this summit tentatively scheduled for mid-January has been postponed due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Donbass. Yet Kazakhstan, much to its credit, still reminds of its willingness to host the talks on the settlement of the Ukraine conflict, though the hope that the proposed dialogue will pull Ukraine out of the clutches of global forces, which locked horns over it in a fierce battle, seems to be very faint indeed.