IT IS GETTING "HOTTER AND HOTTER"AT THE FRONT

The situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the line of the Karabakh front, which became extremely tense last year, persists to this day, continuing to threaten the already fragile peace process. Reports of intense firefights, reconnaissance and sabotage operations and those killed and wounded resemble a summary of hostilities. The number of those killed on the Armenian side has reached 17 and on the Azerbaijani side - 3, while dozens of people were wounded.

In this regard, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, his Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan, a number of military officers and lower-ranking officials burst out with threats. According to Armenian statesmen, they sound "strong", although very uncertain. Here, the assumptions about the use of new military equipment and new tactics by the Azerbaijani side are combined with ranting about some asymmetric responses, "surprises" for Azerbaijan and even warnings about the "right to pre-emptive strikes" on hardware and troops. In short, usual propaganda verbiage designed to hide the confusion and fear of Armenian rulers before the growing power of the Azerbaijani armed forces and the inexorable liberation of the occupied lands by military means in case of complete failure of the peace talks. The ratio of casualties is such that it is not possible to hide the facts and avoid clarifications on why the much-vaunted Armenian army was not up to par.

Armenian leaders seasoned the usual set of propaganda cliches not only with "strong" expressions, but, as usual, attributed the motivation of their own provocative actions to the Azerbaijani side. After all, against the background of the continuing decline in the local currency - the dram (its current rate against the dollar corresponds to its name - it is a real drama), rampant inflation, poverty and unemployment, it is precisely the Armenian authorities that need to distract the population from rebellion against the current criminal-oligarchic regime by means of military hysteria. Sargsyan and Ohanyan turned their country into an "outpost" of Russia, which, according to the figurative expression of the host of the programme "Access Code" on Ekho Moskvy, Larisa Latynina, can walk all over Armenia. Therefore, Yerevan needs to calm down the raging emotions through a threat of another major war with Azerbaijan and neutralize anti-Russian demonstrations in connection with the shooting of seven members of an Armenian family in Gyumri by a serviceman of military base 102, Permyakov.

The interest of the Armenian leadership in tensions at the front on the one hand and their deep concern about the possible consequences of their own acts of provocation on the other is also evident in the fact that President Sargsyan himself and his Defence Minister Ohanyan were forced to issue explanations and warnings, while the Azerbaijani side limits itself to responses from the press service of its military and diplomatic agencies. A press release issued by the Ministry of Defence notes that the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan will constantly increase their military capabilities and fight till the last drop of blood to restore the territorial integrity of the country and to hoist the Azerbaijani flag in all the occupied territories, including Susa and Xankandi. According to the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, all responsibility for the tense situation on the frontline rests entirely with Armenia - the invader state that has violated the principles and norms of international law and the UN Charter. It indicates that it is precisely the presence of the Armenian armed forces in the territories of Azerbaijan that creates tensions which threaten regional stability and security.

In such a tense atmosphere, which is not conducive to peace talks, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met with the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick (USA), Pierre Andre (France) and Igor Popov (Russia), and the personal representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office, Andrzej Kasprzyk, in Krakow during his working visit to Poland. During the meeting, the release of hostages taken by Armenians, Dilqam Asgarov and Sahbaz Quliyev, was raised with the OSCE Minsk Group. They exchanged views on the process of negotiations on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the plan of activities of the OSCE Minsk Group in the coming year. Drawing attention to systematic sabotage by the armed forces of Armenia, Mammadyarov said that their objective is to hinder the process of negotiations. Repeating the official position of Baku, the minister said that it is first of all necessary to withdraw the armed forces of Armenia from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

Based on the results of the Krakow meeting between Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and the OSCE Minsk Group, a brief statement was published, expressing concern at the recent military incidents and calling for Azerbaijan to adhere to its commitments on the peaceful settlement of the conflict and Armenia - to take steps to eliminate tensions. This document has a working character and, in fact, is of no legal or political importance. About 50 of such papers on behalf of the OSCE Minsk Group have been produced during the conflict. Who remembers and quotes them? But the Armenian media and some marginal politicians rushed to make profound conclusions on the basis of this brief statement about the "adoption of a geopolitical decision to preserve the status quo in the Karabakh conflict and, accordingly, maintain the US-France-Russia format under the leadership of the West. Maintaining the status quo is direct and indirect recognition of the rights of Armenians to Karabakh." They interpret the statement as if the co-chairs directly accused Azerbaijan of violating the ceasefire and attempting to criticize the Minsk Group and it could logically be followed by the international recognition of Karabakh.

What can we say? Firstly, the statement of the OSCE Minsk Group was made after talks with Elmar Mammadyarov and, of course, it focuses on Azerbaijan. According to the results of their upcoming meeting with Eduard Nalbandyan, the focus will be on Armenia. Secondly, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are only middle-ranking officials of relevant foreign ministries of the Russian Federation, the United States and France. Long gone are times when the visit of an OSCE Minsk Group cochairman, for example, Vladimir Kazimirov, and his words were perceived as something significant. Now Azerbaijan does not allow anyone to dictate anything to it. Suffice it to recall the public dressing-down given by Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov to the US co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, James Warlick, last year over his inappropriate and ambiguous tweets on sensitive aspects of the Karabakh settlement.

The profound conclusions of the Armenian media from insignificant events and their interpretation as a "geopolitical turn" are very typical for Armenian ideologists and politicians. This is a special "Armenian disease", which manifests itself in the inspirational exaggeration of everything that appears to be more or less a chance to realize their excessive and ill-founded national ambitions and aspirations. This manifests itself in the international recognition of the so-called "Armenian genocide" and legalization of the secession of Nagornyy Karabakh. Therefore, it is not worth emphasizing this statement of the OSCE Minsk Group and especially the Armenian rantings on this subject. It is much more important that the risks of armed confrontation grow, but there are no signs that the negotiation process is breaking the deadlock.

The well-known American political scientist Paul Goble, commenting to Trend on the prospects for the resolution of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in the coming year, said that he expects no progress in the peaceful settlement. "I do not think that Armenia wants it, and I do not see Moscow prompting Yerevan to do this," he said. According to experts, the Kremlin will push Armenia to take action only if it needs something significant from Azerbaijan. But this is unlikely despite the recent tensions between Azerbaijan and the West. According to Paul Goble, excessive rapprochement with Russia would mean an end to all the things Azerbaijan has been working on over the past two decades.

But the lack of progress in the peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict does not mean the imminent resumption of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war, although it is obvious that the risks in this regard have substantially increased. For example, the director of the Russian Centre for Military Forecasting, Anatoliy Tsyganok, commenting on the escalation of tensions on the line of contact between the armed forces of the parties, said that war in 2015 is unlikely. "Azerbaijan is well aware that thanks to oil reserves, it has enough resources and they will gradually increase. This suggests that Azerbaijani military equipment becomes more powerful, and in about eight years it should be enough. At the same time, a very difficult moment is maturing: the training of the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan is completely different. The Azerbaijani side is being trained by a representative of NATO - Turkey, while Armenia is training on the Soviet, Russian ideology. The style of NATO armed forces is as follows: we may suffer maximum damage and then re-gain strength, and on the Armenian side - it is quite the opposite. Anyway, I believe that there will be no war this year, and in 2016 - we will see," he concluded.

Anyway, prudence and balanced response to the provocative statements and actions of the Armenian leadership in the implementation of military response are not superfluous, and Azerbaijan should make such decisions in close consultation with its ally Turkey and other partners.

In the meantime, the OSCE chairman-in-office, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, and OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier have urged the parties to the conflict to respect the ceasefire. As for the plans of the Minsk Group, it has already been announced that the co-chairs are planning to meet with Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandyan soon and then visit the region. It is important that in their diplomatic baggage they bring not familiar and unproductive calls for the consolidation of the ceasefire and confidence-building measures, but specific proposals to begin work on the text of a comprehensive peace agreement.