LESSONS OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

The escalation of the fighting in Donbass has defined the Ukrainian conflict as the focal question of current world politics. It was the main subject of discussion during the 51st international security conference in Munich and also forced Europe's leading powers - France and Germany - to come forward with an unprecedented diplomatic mission.

To arm or not to arm…

The prospect of an even worse exacerbation of the situation in Donbass became obvious in the context of US Secretary of State John Kerry's visit to Ukraine. This was preceded by an explicit appeal by the future head of the Pentagon, Ashton Carter, to provide military aid to the Ukrainians. This was Washington's reaction to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's statement that Kiev needed supplies of modern weapons from NATO. The Ukrainian leader expressed a similar position in his speech at the Munich conference, repeating again and again that Ukraine needs weapons' supplies from the West. Since they are only required for defensive purposes, Poroshenko said, it was not a question of heavy weapons.

So far the US has agreed only to supply Ukraine with so-called non-lethal weapons, i.e. bullet-proof vests, night-vision goggles and medical kits. Although US Vice-President Joseph Biden ruled out the possibility of American weapons' supplies to Ukraine, the influential New York Times said that many representatives of Barack Obama's administration, as well as the Commander-in-chief of the US and NATO forces in Europe General Philip Breedlove, are leaning towards providing "lethal military aid" to Ukraine. In point of fact, the question of expanding American military supplies to Ukraine was, by all accounts, one of the main topics of discussion during John Kerry's visit to Kiev.

Meanwhile, against the background of an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, a number of European leaders, who are extremely worried at the possibility of the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis spreading to the whole continent, have begun to make diplomatic attempts to achieve a speedy cease-fire in Donbass. It was with this objective that French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel made visits to Kiev and Moscow, facilitating the start of a new round of talks on Ukraine.

In the first instance, it is obvious that one of the main motives of Hollande and Merkel's mediation mission was a desire to prevent the West being drawn into a military conflict in Donbass, which some circles in the US are so actively trying to do. The French president made it abundantly clear that Paris was pushing for a new round of negotiations because it doesn't support the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine and its joining NATO. And in her speech at the Munich security conference the German chancellor, having expressed confidence that the Ukrainian crisis cannot be resolved by military means, stressed that supplies of western weapons to Ukraine would hardly help to settle the crisis. "I don't believe that sending arms to Ukraine will scare Russia," Merkel said.

Merkel's statement caused acute dissatisfaction among America's "hawks". The head of the Senate Armed Services Committee, John McCain, even presumed to describe Merkel's statement as "foolishness". However, US Secretary of State John Kerry rejected reports in the world's media that a split had occurred between the European Union and the United States over policy towards Russia. He said the USA and Europe were united in their desire to solve the Ukrainian crisis by diplomatic means.

The way Europe proposes resolving the Ukrainian conflict is shown by Hollande and Merkel's peace plan. Although the details of it have not been disclosed, it may be said categorically that it is based, first and foremost, on the principle of Ukraine's territorial integrity. There are reports from the "camp" of the participants in the "Normandy format" negotiations (Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France) that Hollande and Merkel propose a withdrawal of heavy weapons from Donbass, an exchange of prisoners and autonomy for the region within Ukraine.

The latter marks a significant change in the position of Europe, which had not previously focused attention on the need to decentralize Ukraine. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius made a significant speech at the Munich conference in which he spoke about the possibility of providing Donbass with a special status because the current situation could demand that Kiev carry out a decentralization of power.

However, Kiev is making a great show of the fact that it will not accept the broad autonomy of the south-east of the country. Petro Poroshenko's statement in Munich that in order to implement such decisions it would be necessary to change the country's constitution and hold a referendum points to disagreement of the Ukrainian authorities with the calls to decentralize the country. And this is not surprising, since Kiev will not enter in principle into direct talks with the self-proclaimed "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, regarding the "DPR" and the "LPR" not just as separatist, but terrorist organizations. Nevertheless, there is still the possibility of a peaceful breakthrough in the Ukrainian crisis.

Meanwhile, it is clear that the Ukrainian conflict will be resolved in a context of peaceful geopolitics, but also a further development of antagonism between Russia and the West. Although recent events around Ukraine have pointed to certain disagreements between the USA and the European Union, it is clear that the latter will not be able to rid itself of American "patronage". That is why the West continues to project itself as an integral system of civilization, regarding Russia as one of the key barriers in the path of strengthening the global leadership of Euro-Atlanticism. It was not by chance that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the Munich security conference that the strategic partnership between Russia and the European Union has failed the test of durability. "It is the culmination of the course which the West has been conducting for the past 25 years to strengthen its influence in the world arena." 

However, there are still encouraging factors linked with the recognition by influential European leaders and the European public that the conflict with Russia must not reach the point of no return, behind which hovers but one prospect - a new world war. It is precisely the realization of this terrible threat that governs the calls for creating a unified system of security throughout Europe. Specifically, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has admitted the possibility of building "a greater Europe from Vladivostok to Lisbon" - the dream of the greatest European politicians, including the founder of the Fifth French Republic, Charles de Gaulle. But at the same time, Merkel, naturally, substantiated her remarks by adding that the creation of a "greater Europe" depends on a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

Mirror conflicts

However, there is also no doubt that turning Europe into a compact zone of peace is possible only on the basis of a settlement not just to the Ukrainian conflict, but other conflicts, too. This was clearly pointed out by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the Munich security conference. At a panel discussion "Beyond Ukraine - Unresolved conflicts in Europe", the head of the Azerbaijani state said that "the tragic situation in Ukraine also draws attention to other protracted conflicts, in particular the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict which has been going on for more than 20 years". Ilham Aliyev recalled that the conflict in fact began even before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and after that it merely deepened, as a result of which internationally recognized Azerbaijani territories were occupied.

During a "round table" meeting, the Armenian representative turned to the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and accused the Azerbaijani army of shelling Armenian positions and for increasing tension on the front line. President Aliyev's response was clear: "Sure enough, it is a tactic of the Armenians to always place the blame on us. They occupied our lands, violated the norms of international law, committed genocide in Xocali [Khojaly], destroyed our historical and religious monuments and put the blame on us. One has to ask, what are Armenian troops doing on occupied territories? What are Armenian troops doing in Agdam? If they don't want to die, then don't go to Agdam. Stay at home, in Yerevan, in Gyumri, in your own country. There is enough room for you in your own country. There are not that many people left in Armenia, so what are you doing in Agdam and Fizuli [occupied Azerbaijani districts]?"

Touching upon the problem of double standards in world politics, the Azerbaijani president called for all conflicts in the countries of the former Soviet Union to be considered from the same standpoint, because our country's territorial integrity has the same value as Ukraine's territorial integrity.

"I think that the lessons of the Ukrainian conflict should be closely studied," Ilham Aliyev stressed. "If the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been settled, perhaps there would not have been a conflict in Ukraine, because they have the same scenarios, the same violation of territorial integrity and the same outcome - occupation and separatism. They are like a mirror. For that reason, of course, we expect the same attitude from the international community and the world's leading countries."

In this context Ilham Aliyev answered a question by a Bundestag deputy, Philipp Missfelder as to whether the Azerbaijani president did not regard as double standards the fact that sanctions are not being imposed against Armenia, whereas sanctions were launched virtually straightaway in the Ukrainian conflict.

"Double standards are a reality," Ilham Aliyev said. "Especially now, when we see sanctions being applied, we ask: why are sanctions not being imposed against Armenia? After all, they've done exactly the same. So why are sanctions not being applied to them? Probably because they have a very strong world diaspora protecting Armenia from all potential adequate measures. When the policy of double standards is not applied by the international community the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict will be very quickly resolved."

Indeed, a settlement of the conflicts that are tormenting Europe is possible only on the basis of consensus criteria, in full concordance with the norms and principles of international law. Otherwise, as we have seen from the example of the Ukrainian conflict, the destinies of whole peoples become hostage to the geopolitical ambitions of the world centres of power. The latter, without doubt, merely isolates conflicts from a long-term settlement, with all the ensuing distressing consequences for the lives of millions of innocent people.

AT FIRST HAND

"What are Armenian troops doing in Agdam? If they don't want to die, then don't go to Agdam. Stay at home, in Yerevan, in Gyumri, in your own country. There is enough room for you in your own country. There are not that many people left in Armenia," - 

Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan