HOSTAGE TO EYJAFJALLAJOKULL

Most of us have long taken the achievements of civilization (which also have a few side-effects) for granted. We insolently push buttons on remote controls, flipping hundreds of TV channels, obtain access to almost any information in a matter of seconds thanks to the Internet, leave most of the work around the house to be done by clever equipment, go shopping online, find ourselves on the opposite side of the earth in a matter of hours via a fast plane… It is therefore no wonder that people begin to feel they are absolute masters of the planet and to underestimate the power of nature.

The barely pronounceable Eyjafjallajokull volcano has proved many people wrong. It erupted 200 km east of Reykjavik on 14 April. It could be said that this was a wake-up call for mankind, which has proved that something beyond our control can happen at any time and affect the lives of millions.

Eyjafjallajokull subsided and erupted with fresh ferocity over several days. The Icelander left traces of its rampant activity across an area from the east coast of Canada to central Siberia, from Novaya Zemlya to the Far East. And of course, most of the ash was thrown into the atmosphere above Europe, leading to the closure of airline communications and the cancellation of hundreds of flights. Most of us heard for the first time that volcanic ash poses a threat to a plane's turbines. The engines of two planes which flew into a cloud of ash over Indonesia and Alaska failed for this reason in the 1980s. 

Meanwhile, when losses arising from the grounding of flights became threatening, many businessmen, experts and politicians began claiming that the decision was not justified and that the chaos imposed by the cancellation of flights could have been avoided. The media immediately speculated about "imperfect and incomplete scientific research based on inaccurate information". It turned out that the program used to calculate the direction of the ash cloud was designed in the late 1980s, in the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, to predict the movement of particles in the air. In the case of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, the accuracy of these calculations is under suspicion - no test flights were carried out through the cloud and the only information available was from ground radar. The media also recalled that "after 11 September 2001, fearing further acts of terror, US airspace was also closed for several days". "We will never find out how reasonable it was to close European airspace. Fear in this case is based on the experience of certain pilots who have flown through a volcanic cloud, "while the rest is just speculation", the Austrian Der Standard writes. 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has gone even further, accusing European leaders of inaction and causing chaos. According to Giovanni Bizignani, director of IATA, "Europe made the decision without assessing the risks, without consultation or coordination and without responsibility." He added that the crisis had become a "European disgrace" and "European turmoil". Western experts have also voiced their doubts regarding the "EU's capacity to act resolutely in an emergency situation". It might seem that there was no place for doubt if human lives were at stake, however, the volcano eruption has enabled many to have a closer look at the EU's capacity for true unity. European journalists note that the decision to shut down European airspace was made by every country separately. For example, London was going to rescue UK citizens stuck abroad with the aid of the Royal Navy…

European newspapers wrote in fury that following the adoption of the Lisbon agreement, anti-crisis efforts were to be coordinated by the incumbent EU president, Herman van Rompuy. Fuel was added to the fire by the EU transport commissioner, Siim Kallas, who acknowledged that the crisis could have been avoided if there had been control over air communication in the European system.

It occurred to European governments only some time later that it was necessary to develop a collective approach to the situation and establish a single board to manage European airspace. 

Meanwhile, the number of people affected by the volcano points to the level of globalization which, on the one hand, brings us closer together and provides more opportunities, but, on the other, makes everything much more mutually dependent and vulnerable, in both favourable and unfavourable phenomena and processes. As a result, even a minor problem can assume gigantic proportions. This is exactly what happened to the financial crisis, which was born in the USA but affected the same Iceland most of all; or swine flu, which spread quickly from one country to another late last year. 

The Icelandic volcano was no exception to the rule - a geologically ordinary eruption unexpectedly led to billions in losses across many economic sectors and undermined the plans of many people, from presidents to ordinary workers. Azerbaijan was not unaffected either, having to cancel international activities and visits by politicians and sportsmen.  

The Christian Science Monitor writes that the Icelandic volcano dealt a blow to the Kenyan floriculture which commands a considerable portion of the African nation's GDP (orchids reach Europe by plane). Producers of the most varied range of goods, from oil (the demand for aviation fuel dropped, while the price of vessel fuel surged) to food, have also been affected. As a result, the shortage of everyday goods, especially those sold in fresh condition, has been felt by ordinary consumers. Of course, travel agents have had a difficult period as well, but the greatest damage has been inflicted on airlines, which had only just recovered from the global recession. They have lost a total of $1.7 billion. 

While businessmen were calculating their losses, the media published apocalyptic forecasts. The French Le Monde believes that the volcano has taught people a lesson in humility. "We are only passengers on Earth, which acts as it wishes…" Der Standard reminds us that "natural calamities are too diverse to be reflected by a mathematic formula…" The Washington Post came to the conclusion that the volcano is retribution for the way we treat nature and "signals the start of many years of volcanic activity which will put an end to our civilization". Scientists have also recalled the eruption of another Icelandic volcano, Lucky, in 1783, which led to the discharge of 120 million tons of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere. It brought about major changes in climate (summer became hotter and winter colder), which led to droughts, floods and which had bitter implications for agriculture. 

At the same time, some specialists maintain that Eyjafjallajokull could awaken an ever bigger volcano, Katla, located 20 km east and believed to be connected to its "brother" by a magmatic channel. Katla is about 10 times bigger than Eyjafjallajokull and has a thicker icecap. Therefore, the interaction between cold water and hot lava would lead to a more powerful eruption of ash. According to The Independent, every time Eyjafjallajokull erupted in the last two millennia (in 920, 1612 and between 1821 and 1823), Katla also erupted within the next six months. 

Etna in Italy is also showing signs of awakening from hibernation. It must also be remembered that there are around 30 active volcanoes in Russia's Kamchatka. Further, it is said that the ancient volcano located in the Yellowstone National Park is also showing signs of activity. One can't help recalling the dreadful images from the film "2012". The most active zones of volcanic activity are Iceland, Ethiopia, the Hawaii, the Caucasus and Kamchatka. Elbrus, in fact, is also a sleeping volcano.

Nikolay Zharvin, doctor of philosophy at Moscow State University, told RIA-Novosti that, as far as Icelandic volcanoes are concerned, they may be affected by a melting glacier in Greenland, which penetrates several kilometres into the lithospheric plate. As the glacier melts, the plate straightens out. 

"Iceland is known to be located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge - a zone in which two oceanic lithospheric plates split. Movement in the Atlantic Ocean is not very great - about 2 cm a year. However, in the Pacific Ocean, for example, there is movement of 15-20 cm a year (particularly active is movement near the Nasca plate). The earth's crust at mid-ocean ridges is very thin (this is specific to two oceanic plates - when continental or oceanic and continental plates move, the crust actually becomes thicker). Iceland is a kind of a staple in this situation, hindering the movement of oceanic plates. But this staple could break if Greenland glaciers melt to a critical thickness. In this case, a gigantic explosion would take place in the region of Iceland, provoking movement in all lithospheric plates. It would release a previously unseen volume of ash (causing the setting in of a permanent night) and cause unprecedented tsunamis, which would sweep away not only the coastal cities of North America and Europe, but also all living things within hundreds or even thousands of kilometres…", said Dr. Zharvin.

Whether or not this is true, the role played in this "end of the world" scenario by Greenland's melting glaciers cannot but make people think, especially in the wake of the failure of the climate summit in Copenhagen… 

However, it is gratifying that people have not lost their sense of humour. Of course, some were in no mood to laugh, but all Russian-speaking users of the Internet were mocking the hardly pronounceable name of the Icelandic volcano. "News presenters are terrified: the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull could in the near future be joined by pyroclasting streams from the Mexican mountain Popocatepetl."

Europeans, better informed about Iceland's economic woes, were also in humorous mood: "Iceland's last wish: spread my ashes over Europe", "Breaking news: Icelanders will stop the volcano only when their debt is forgiven", "Icelanders have got it all wrong. We said: Give us cash. Not: give us ash." 

Therefore, in the wake of the Icelandic volcano, the expression "Living on a volcano" has suddenly acquired an altogether different meaning, much closer to reality. 

Modern science can work wonders, but seismological forecasts of volcanic activity still leave a lot to be desired. And this means that our well-furnished houses in big, beautiful cities could become infernal traps at any moment.

Nature can undermine any human plans, even those involving politics and economy. We are not masters of this planet, we are only guests…