TALKS DEADLOCKED AGAIN

Last month was marked by diplomatic activity towards the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. As most analysts predicted, Erdogan's government remained faithful to its public assurances that without progress towards a settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Upper Qarabag, the Zurich protocols would not be approved by the Turkish parliament and the border with Armenia would not be opened. Ankara was not too impressed by persistent persuasion from Washington and Brussels that these two processes should not be linked. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, who paid a brief visit to Baku on 19 April, informed the Azerbaijani leadership of this and other Turkish plans.

In response to Ankara's firm stance, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said, in an address to the Armenian people on 22 April, that Yerevan had suspended the process of ratifying the Armenian-Turkish protocols. He emphasized that Armenia, while respecting the calls and genuine desire of US President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev, is not pulling out of the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations. Sargsyan said further that all reasonable periods envisaged for the ratification of documents had already expired. On the same day, the coalition of parties included in the government majority decided to take the Zurich protocols off the Armenian parliamentary agenda. 

In this way, Serzh Sargsyan and his supporters may have softened slightly criticism of the futile "proactive" foreign policy, but they could not reverse developments. On 24 April, President Barack Obama did not pronounce the word "genocide" in his traditional address, while the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict returned to the centre of regional politics. The lack of progress on a settlement presents the most serious risk to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. 

As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated explicitly at a special meeting on army construction at the Defence Ministry on 23 April, "The war is not over. Only the first stage is." The fact that this is not just the military rhetoric that Azerbaijan is accused of has been confirmed by a report from Defence Minister Safar Abiyev, who provided specific facts about strengthened military potential and the army's capacity to resolve the task of freeing the country from the Armenian occupying forces. 

Azerbaijan has to spell out these unpleasant military alternatives primarily because the Armenians intend to keep on dragging out the process of talks. Yerevan's alleged readiness for compromise has turned out to be a diplomatic game intended to disguise its reluctance to give up its unreasonable claims on both Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Armenians clearly hope that Ankara and Baku will display a lack of flexibility and can then be subsequently blamed for the failure of talks, while Yerevan will continue to seek political support and financial and economic alms from the superpowers. This obvious ploy is now bulging at the seams. 

In any case, it is a fact that Armenia is not accepting the updated Madrid principles, which crowned three years of wearisome talks involving more than 10 meetings between the presidents and innumerable meetings and visits by foreign ministers and co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group. The excuse that Yerevan had given its consent to the Madrid principles back in 2007 cannot mislead many people. There is the impression that Armenians deliberately feigned approval at the beginning, trying to create a semblance of constructiveness. When Azerbaijan said yes, the government of Serzh Sargsyan had to show its cards. At the same time, Armenia cannot say an outright no to the superpowers which actually feed it, due to its own lack of resources. This is why Yerevan is trying to manoeuvre. But this can't last forever.

The Russian and US co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group arrived in Baku on 21 April to conduct consultations. They held talks with President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov. According to the co-chairmen, the negotiations were quite positive and constructive.

"I have observed, as always, President Ilham Aliyev's aspiration to resolve the Upper Qarabag conflict peacefully. US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also attach special importance to a negotiated settlement of the conflict," US co-chairman Robert Bradtke told journalists. 

He added that the updated Madrid principles contain provisions on which the parties are to agree and the co-chairmen will continue to work on that. 

This was the last visit for Russian co-chairman Yuriy Merzlyakov, as he has received a new diplomatic appointment. He has been replaced by Igor Popov, an experienced diplomat and formerly Russia's ambassador to Mozambique and Swaziland. More recently, he was deputy director of the department for CIS countries. This rotation, however, is unlikely to change Russia's mediation. It has long been beyond the competence of foreign ministry officials, because Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev has been personally involved in the Upper Qarabag settlement process in recent years. It was to him that Serzh Sargsyan rushed shortly after returning from the USA. 

It appears that the Armenian president did not hear anything reassuring in Washington, as had been the case in Paris earlier. The Armenians are not ready to accept the updated Madrid principles, sign a peace agreement on this basis or to begin vacating occupied lands. But the more time passes, the more difficult it becomes for Yerevan to reject the mediators' proposals by diplomatic casuistry and information and propaganda campaigns. Contrary to positive official statements, Sargsyan is well aware that the Azerbaijani army has become considerably stronger and is capable of destroying Armenia's defences by artillery and rocket fire without making direct contact with the opponent, especially in plain areas adjoining the Iranian border.

In order to prevent this, the possibility of withdrawing Armenian troops from the Agdam and Fizuli Districts has emerged, as recently reported by the Turkish media. If this option is realized, there will be a demilitarized zone between the Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. By stepping back to the second line of defence, the Armenians will feel much safer. At the same time, Yerevan could show it was being constructive - there would be grounds for a Turkish-Armenian d?tente, while talks around the Madrid principles could be continued without a requirement for immediate acceptance. 

In the meantime, Iran has offered its services as mediator to the parties; Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki has stated Tehran's intention to initiate a trilateral meeting between representatives from Baku, Yerevan and Tehran to discuss the prospects of a Qarabag settlement. It was reported earlier that Iran had sent proposals for a resolution of Upper Qarabag to Yerevan and Baku. Azerbaijan, in the words of Foreign Ministry spokesman Elxan Poluxov, gave a positive response to the suggestion, while Armenia remained tight-lipped. However, a high-ranking diplomatic source has told Armenia Today that Yerevan will only pursue a conflict settlement within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Today, Yerevan's room for manoeuvre has shrunk considerably. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Yerevan to shy away from decisions leading to a withdrawal of Armenian forces from occupied territories. The superpowers which patronize Armenia and at the same time act as co-chairing countries in the OSCE Minsk Group have to think about ways of reaching a negotiated settlement to the conflict. The Armenians may shy away from Iranian mediation, but they can no longer keep Turkey away.

Meanwhile, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen, joined by their French colleague Bernard Fassier, have held talks on future action in Moscow. The US co-chairman had said in Baku that the mediators were already behind schedule in moving the negotiating process forward, having done nothing in the last few months. Another attempt is to be made by Russian President Medvedev at the CIS summit in Moscow in May (to mark the 60th anniversary of victory over Fascism) to bring Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to an agreement which would open the way for a negotiated settlement to the Upper Qarabag conflict. This would be quite appropriate for parties which fought together, shoulder-to-shoulder, against Nazism and will be meeting again to celebrate a common victory. 

So far it is difficult to predict future developments. This will largely depend on two factors: first, on how Washington, Paris and Moscow conduct themselves - they are certainly capable of bringing Armenia to its senses and curtailing its ambition; secondly, it depends on their readiness to guarantee political survival to Serzh Sargsyan and to allocate additional financial and economic assistance to crisis-stricken Armenia. It may not be certain which of the parties to the conflict, Armenia or Azerbaijan, would benefit from a delayed settlement, but the fact that further procrastination is not in the interests of peace is beyond doubt.