MINSK CHANCE

For the first time since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for almost a year, the light of a real peace settlement is looming. According to the results of 16-hour talks between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, which took place in Minsk, documents that can lay the foundation for a long-term solution to the Ukrainian crisis were signed.

It is hoped that within the framework of the so-called "Norman format" involving the presidents of Russia, Ukraine and France and the German chancellor, historic agreements were indeed reached, which, in case of compliance with their conditions, can lead to a long-awaited breakthrough in resolving the armed conflict that has killed thousands of Ukrainian citizens.

The talks in Minsk, we can say, were unprecedented since the summit participants had extremely rich and tense discussions that were not suspended even during the night (from 11 to 12 February), on the basis of which the sides adopted decisions that can potentially resolve the deadliest conflict in modern Europe.

Simultaneously with the summit of the "Norman Four", the contact group held a meeting, which was attended by the leaders of the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR", Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitskiy, former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, the Russian ambassador in Kiev, Mikhail Zurabov, and the special representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office, Heidi Tagliavini (who joined the summit later).

All indications are that the participants in the Minsk talks originally intended to agree on the terms of a real, not formal peace. The fact that they already have the bitter experience of the previous agreements in Minsk, which, after their agreement in September last year, only partially reduced the intensity of the armed conflict in the Donbass and were no longer respected by all parties to the conflict in recent weeks, seems to have played its role here. But the main incentive to the peace agreement is that everyone is tired of the Ukrainian conflict. First of all, Ukraine itself is tired as it is exhausted by the fratricidal confrontation in the south-east of the country accompanied by numerous victims. Russia is tired as it entered a tough geopolitical confrontation with the West because of Ukraine, which dealt a serious blow to its economy. Finally, Europe is tired too as its major powers - Germany and France - are extremely concerned about the possible spread of the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict to the entire continent and undertook the mediation mission in its settlement.

According to the results of the Minsk talks, two documents were adopted. The first one was signed by the contact group, including representatives of the "DPR" and "LPR" and was aimed at implementing the Minsk agreements. The second document is a statement by the leaders of the four countries about their support for the peace process.

The main provisions of the Minsk agreement are as follows: a ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the OSCE, the release of hostages, withdrawal of foreign weapons, units, equipment and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE, constitutional reform in Ukraine before the end of 2015 and the adoption of a permanent law on the special status of the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The analysis of this document raises a number of questions. The first one relates to the fact that Russia denies its military presence in south-eastern Ukraine. In this case, will it withdraw its military forces and hardware from the Donbass, the presence of which in the region is insistently claimed by Kiev and the West?

Another important issue is the activity of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR". Will there be some control over their activities? Or rather will Moscow make the pro-Russian separatists admit Ukraine's sovereignty over the Donbass, as stipulated by the Minsk agreement, even if the latter, according to the same document, will get a "special status"? The fact that the Kremlin has all the levers of influence on militias in the southeast of Ukraine is proved by the very course of the Minsk talks. It became known that representatives of the "DPR" and "LPR" did not agree to sign the agreement to the very end, insisting first on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the city of Debaltseve surrounded by militias. But then they nevertheless agreed to sign the final document. In this regard, French President Francois Hollande thanked his Russian counterpart for the pressure exerted on the militia.

Meanwhile, the subsequent course of political and legal processes around the rebellious south-east of Ukraine will first of all depend on what exactly the constitutional reform in the country will be and what the "special status" of Donetsk and Luhansk implies. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko categorically made it clear that there is no agreement on any federalization of his country or the autonomy of Donbass. The Russian leader, meanwhile, stated with confidence that Ukraine "will conduct constitutional reform that will take into account the interests of the population of Donbass".

Such discrepancies that affect the cornerstones of the Ukrainian domestic settlement, perhaps, carry a time bomb. However, the good news is (and this is fully confirmed by the course of the negotiations within the framework of the "Norman format") that all parties involved in the Ukrainian crisis are aware of the enormous risks that originate from the armed confrontation not only for long-term stability in Ukraine itself, but also for security in Europe and throughout the world.

In this context, further relations between Russia and the European Union seem very important. The latter introduced a package of new sanctions against Russia from 16 February. However, in light of the Minsk agreements and possible peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, the restoration of full cooperation between Russia and Europe is possible. This is related to the vital interests of all continental security. It is no accident that French President Francois Hollande called the agreements reached in the Belarusian capital "a relief for Europe".

The US position is of great importance for the Ukrainian settlement and its impact on global and European security. The American political elite are largely aggressive towards Russia and its Ukrainian policy. The USA is implementing its own strategy to oust Russia from its traditional sphere of influence, and in this sense, the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, between the Russians and a people closest to them, i.e. Ukrainians, meets Washington's anti-Russian and anti-Eurasian plans. It is not in vain that certain circles in the United States continue to actively play up the theme of possible "lethal" weapons supplies to Kiev. It is precisely with the aim of preventing this scenario that the Europeans stepped up efforts for the early peaceful solution to Ukrainian conflict. As can be seen, Europe is torn between dependence on American military-political support and financial power and the desire to keep at least part of its independence from the allied overseas superpower. As for the latter, the truce in the Donbass confrontation can also be beneficial to Washington (at least tactically), which already has enough problems in the world even without Ukraine.

But the most important thing, of course, is the question of a real ceasefire in Ukraine and the saving establishment of a peaceful life for the Ukrainian people. After all, the events around the country clearly show that the world centres of power, by and large, are quite indifferent to the question of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. It is in the interest of anyone, but not of the Ukrainian people, to secure the country's image as a testing ground for a confrontation between the great powers. So the Minsk agreement may have given Ukraine a chance to stop the mad fall into the abyss of bloody chaos and realize that the protection of the national interests of Ukraine is in the hands of the Ukrainians themselves and nobody else.