"THE GATEWAY TO ANTARCTICA LIES THROUGH "THE SOUTH ATLANTIC KUWAIT"

If a loaded gun hangs from the wall, it can fire at any moment. The same applies to unresolved territorial disputes - the situation may spiral out of control at any time. Alarming signals have started to come in from the southern Atlantic Ocean, reminding the world of events of nearly 30 years ago - the Argentine-British war over the Falkland Islands.

As the army of Argentina, controlled by a military junta, landed on the Falklands in 1982, Margaret Thatcher's cabinet adopted a resolute response. The ensuing military operation claimed the lives of 650 Argentineans and 258 British soldiers. Buenos Aires suffered a crushing defeat, but still considers the islands its own. Although relations between Britain and Argentina cannot be called enmity now, the question of the Falklands, as shown by recent events, could lead them to crisis point at any time.

The Falkland Islands, which the Argentineans call the Malvinas (Islas Malvinas), are an archipelago of 2 large and about 200 small islands in the South Atlantic Ocean more than 400 km from Argentina and 13,000 miles from Britain. Britain has controlled the archipelago since 1833 (since 1983, the islands have had no relations with Argentina). The Falklands have no indigenous population - its residents (about 3,000 people) who are mostly descendants of immigrants from England and who seem happy to be subjects of the British Crown, are mainly engaged in fishing, sheep farming and tourism.

The situation around the Falkland Islands was once again exacerbated by a geological survey conducted offshore by the British oil company Desire Petroleum, 100 kilometres north of the islands. Argentina immediately called the test drilling a violation of UN resolutions on the issue. Buenos Aires used words like "colonial approach" and others in the same spirit. Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner issued a decree according to which any ship bound for the Falkland Islands through Argentine territorial waters must obtain special permission from Buenos Aires. The head of the Argentinean cabinet, Hannibal Fernandez, said that the resolution "makes it possible to protect not only the sovereignty of Argentina, but all natural resources" in the area.

In response, London said that the Falkland Islands were "reliably protected" - British naval forces were put on high alert. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown stressed that the British military stationed in the South Atlantic would resist any attempts to disrupt connections between the Falkland Islands and the outside world. "I do not think we should condone Buenos Aires, because we know what it led to last time," said Andrew Rosindell, secretary of the British Parliamentary committee on the Falkland Islands.

 It is notable that Argentina asked the US to mediate in its dispute with Britain, and the US State Department expressed its readiness to help resolve the differences. However, London said in reply that it sees no need for any mediation or intervention by the US. The British authorities are confident that their actions do not violate international law and that, therefore, there is nothing to talk about.

However, the dispute between Britain and Argentina cannot but worry the international community - especially now, when there are numerous "frozen" (and not so frozen) territorial conflicts around the world. However, many experts believe that, if necessary, several ways could be found to resolve the situation and London and Buenos Aires will probably agree in a way that will turn the oil hidden off the Falklands shores into dollars for both sides. Britain's Deputy Foreign Secretary Chris Bryant emphasized that Argentina is an "important partner" of London, with which it collaborates in the G20. The fact is that, for the time being, even experts find it difficult to say whether oil extraction near the Falklands is economically viable - because of problems with production and transportation. At the same time, Argentinean politicians do not hide the fact that they are consciously trying to make oil extraction from the islands less convenient and more expensive for Britain. Even if everything goes according to London's plan, the industrial extraction of "black gold" from around the Falklands may begin only in many years' time.

We can conclude here that an attempt to reach the oil lying near the islands (it is a very impressive figure - up to 60 billion barrels, because of which the Falklands are now called the "South Atlantic Kuwait") may be something of a prelude to much more ambitious plans. We should not forget the transport importance of the disputed islands - they are not only the South Atlantic Kuwait, but also a gateway to Antarctica, which scientists predict to be fabulously rich in various minerals. In addition, this part of the earth possesses huge reserves of fresh water, which has now become a luxury for many people on our planet.

Thus, the islands are not only an important transit point en route from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific, but they also make it possible to control the southern Atlantic and approaches to Antarctica. They also serve as the key to Argentinean and British claims to a presence in Antarctica. There is no doubt that other players in this exciting and hidden game, such as Australia, New Zealand or Chile, are waiting with bated breath...

By the way, some observers believe that the worsening of the situation surrounding the islands may even be profitable for Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner. The fact is that Argentina will soon hold presidential elections and Mrs Kirchner's popularity rating is quite low. The country's economy, as well as a number of corruption scandals associated with her, leave little hope for a radical alteration in the situation. In such circumstances, shifting voters' attention to the question of the ownership of the islands would be ideal - almost all Argentineans believe that the Malvinas belong to their country.

By the way, we can say that the 1982 war over the Falklands was "a piece of luck" for Margaret Thatcher - a "drowning" politician ended up back on top of the political Olympus due to the patriotic sentiments of a nation looking at the world through the haze of a victorious war. Apart from Thatcher, the Royal Navy also received a new lease of life... The military junta that was then in power in Argentina also tried to benefit from the war, but the forces were clearly unequal, and Britain's victory was inevitable.

Meanwhile, it is significant that the political tensions around the Falklands highlighted once again some aspects of the relations between the US and Latin America. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently toured several Latin American countries. It was obvious that this time Washington's attitude to the age-old conflict over the islands in the South Atlantic was defined by the main purpose of Clinton's trip - to enlist support for tougher UN sanctions against Iran and at the same time, to improve the US' image in the region.

Specifically, the White House wanted Brazil to join its plans against the Islamic Republic, as it has voting rights at the UN Security Council. But Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva clearly showed that he had his own opinion on that score. Brasilia is not only against tougher sanctions against Iran, but is even going to expand and strengthen its relations with Iran. In particular, Lula da Silva plans to visit Tehran soon. Some other Latin American countries have similar positions on Iran.

Also, at a recent summit in Canc?n Latin American and Caribbean states agreed to establish a new regional bloc (the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States), which does not include the United States or Canada. According to Mexican President Felipe Calderon, the organization will develop ways to achieve further economic cooperation between the countries within it (including the possibility of creating a single monetary unit), as well as ways of representing the regional interests of the group at international level. Particular attention will be paid to cooperation in the energy sector, the development of the general infrastructure, social and cultural integration, as well as the development of united action in the event of natural disasters and other emergencies.

Although it is for now only an intention, Canada and the United States have every reason to worry that the new organization may eventually try to replace the Organization of American States (OAS) in which the pace is set by the USA. In particular, such concerns were expressed by Arturo Valenzuela, the State Department official responsible for relations with Latin America.

Latin American countries are more clearly tending towards harmonizing their positions, realizing common interests and getting rid of any external political or economic influence. The position of the Barack Obama administration on the coup in Honduras has played a special role here recently. Many Latin American capitals saw it as displaying double standards and hints of insincerity. Also, some Latin American nations do not like the US embargo on Cuba and the events of ten years ago in Haiti. In addition, Latin American countries have actually become less dependent on the US economy, and the presence of other players - the EU, Russia and China - is becoming more evident in the region. By the way, Latin American states, albeit in words and without obligation, expressed support for Argentina over the Falkland Islands...

The process of escaping US influence has begun in Latin American countries and, according to many observers, it is already irreversible, although the White House's positions in Latin America are still very strong, and Clinton's visit cannot be called a failure. Furthermore, relations cannot be called really friendly between all Latin American countries.