ONE VOTE FOR EVIL

" Armenians are inclined to kick up a row on any occasion. If they are not allowed into someone's house, or their plots are unmasked, or their thieves are put on trial, they immediately raise a rumpus and involve stupid or corrupt people from other nations."

Excerpt from "The Caucasus" by  V.L. Velichko, Russian 19th century researcher 

The beginning of the year 2010 was not very successful for Turkish diplomacy. Following the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Swedish parliament voted to recognize the so-called Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey in 1915. It is noteworthy that both the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Swedish parliament voted narrowly, by 23-22 and by 131-130 respectively, to approve the resolutions. 

But the Swedish parliament's resolution was not the first in this line. On 15 February, the British House of Commons has included in the summons a resolution recognizing the invented "genocide of Armenians and Assyrians in Ottoman Turkey". In early March the parliament of Catalonia, which unites four provinces in Spain, voted for a similar document. To tell the truth, the governments of these countries immediately dissociated themselves from the parliamentary decisions. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt voiced concern over the resolutions adopted. "This resolution was a mistake and it does not reflect the position of the Swedish authorities. History should not be politicized," said the Swedish Foreign Minister. But the resolution exists and it has caused great tension in relations between Turkey and these countries. In response, Turkey decided to recall its ambassadors from the USA and Sweden. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's planned visit to Stockholm was cancelled.  

Ankara regarded the decision taken by the Swedish parliament as a provocation. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said this openly to Carl Bildt. "I said that the decision taken by the Swedish parliament is inexplicable at a time when relations between Turkey and Sweden are developing successfully. I said that the decision was a provocation," Davutoglu said, after a meeting with his Swedish counterpart in Finland.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke even more clearly about the future of Turkish-US and Turkish-Swedish relations. "We will respond to this injustice," he said. 

Although the Turkish Prime Minister did not specify what retaliatory steps he meant, there is fervent discussion in the media and political circles as to how events will develop. Some analysts do not rule out a revision of Turkey-NATO joint military projects and a ban on the use of Turkey's air space and bases for the US Air Force and NATO.

As for Sweden, Svante E. Cornell, Director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University, told the Trend news agency that the parliament's decision would have a significant effect on the economy. "When France and Canada recognized the so-called genocide, their political and economic interests in Turkey were seriously affected," Cornell said.

On the other hand, the governments are unlikely to support the parliaments' decisions on the recognition of the invented Armenian genocide. Thus, it is most likely that Turkey will not revise its relations with these countries radically - there is a line that the sides will not cross.

Nevertheless, why have events of 100 years ago caused this wave of resolutions? Until now the West has not jangled the nerves of its main ally in the Islamic world, although Turkish diplomacy has to work hard every year in the run-up to 24 April, when the victims of the notorious Armenian genocide are commemorated.

One should probably look for the reasons in Turkey's retreat of last year on the Turkish-Armenian front. Ankara's gestures of good will towards Armenia might be called an advance, or the latest events to prove forecasts that a tiny manifestation of loyalty on the part of Turkey would serve only to increase the appetite of Armenia and its patrons abroad.

If that were not the case, the West would not have given a political assessment of the century-old events at a time when relations between Armenia and Turkey were moving towards normalization. This coincidence of circumstances casts doubts on the future of the Zurich protocols and, as Turkish President Abdullah Gul put it, "will damage efforts being taken to ensure peace and stability in the South Caucasus".

Another reason for this attack on Ankara may be the West's discontent with actions taken by Turkey in the region which go beyond the allies' interests. Many political analysts have described Turkey's rapprochement with Iran, Libya and Syria, observed over the past few years, as Ankara's desire to strengthen its position abroad, including in its dialogue with the West. However, analysts of the Region Plus magazine once said that these moves by Turkey might seriously impair its relations with the USA and Europe. In the context of promoting national interests and strengthening its positions abroad, ties with the West are more important to Turkey than those with Syria and Libya. 

However, a further escalation of tension in relations is not advantageous for the West, in particular for the USA. For Washington, Turkey still is a right-wing force in NATO and the largest allied army. For a Europe stuck in crisis, Turkey is the 16th biggest economy in the world.