UNITY PLAN FOR APHRODITE'S ISLE

The Cyprus problem has been one of the Europe's biggest headaches for almost half a century now.  In the last couple of years, there has been renewed hope of a long-term settlement.  UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's visit to the divided island is evidence, although there is no reason yet to talk about a smooth process of negotiation between the leaders of the Greek and Turkish communities on Cyprus.

Ban Ki-moon's appeal

While on Cyprus, Ban Ki-moon expressed his confidence that the governments of the southern and northern parts of Cyprus would soon reach agreement.  He stressed that this would require "courage, flexibility, foresight and a desire to achieve compromise."  "No one is under the illusion that any of this is easy. Peace negotiations never are.  But the time is ripe to push ahead. I am convinced these two leaders can achieve a mutually beneficial solution," said the secretary-general.

Ban Ki-moon urged the leaders of the Greek and Turkish communities of Cyprus, Dimitris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat, to accelerate talks to reunite the island.  The settlement plan for the Cyprus problem envisages the creation of a two-community, two-zone federation with a federal government and a single mission in the international arena.  Essentially, it is a modernized version of the plan proposed back in 2003 by then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.  His plan was to create a federal republic of two equal states, Turkish and Greek.  However, in the 24 April 2004 referendum, the Greek population of Cyprus rejected Annan's plan, while the majority of Turkish Cypriots voted for it.  Despite this, the Greek part of the island acceded to full membership of the European Union, as the internationally-recognized Republic of Cyprus, and the status of the northern part of the island remains unclear to this day.

The visit by the UN secretary-general was a demonstration of support for the Cyprus settlement plan.  Ban Ki-moon's initiative was successful, despite the fuss over his visit to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is not internationally recognized.  According to the initial itinerary, TRNC leader Mehmet Ali Talat was to receive the UN secretary-general at his residence.  However, it emerged later that Talat expected him at the presidential palace.  Greek Cypriot leaders perceived this as a Turkish "trap" for the UN secretary-general, intended to indicate indirect recognition of the "pseudo-state."  But still, this development, which was interpreted differently in the two parts of Cyprus and which has once again demonstrated the complexity of the conflict and the difficulty in achieving a peaceful settlement, also showed that there are grounds to hope that compromise is possible.  The negotiating process between the sides was given yet further impetus to intensify, with the UN secretary-general's support.

The talks between Christofias and Talat

Direct talks between the leaders of the two parts of Cyprus have been under way since September 2008.  Mehmet Ali Talat and Dimitris Christofias hold regular bilateral meetings at the residence of the UN secretary-general's special envoy in Cyprus, former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer.  The symbolic start of the talks was marked by the demolition of the wall dividing the Greek and Turkish communities in April 2008.  For the first time in recent decades, a checkpoint was opened in the Cypriot capital Nicosia, on the UN "green line" which divides the Greek and Turkish parts of the island.  The fact that Nicosia was considered the last divided capital in Europe attached great, if not historic, importance to the event.  The checkpoint between the north and south of Cyprus is on Ledra, the central street of Nicosia which had become a tragic symbol of the division of the Island in 1974, when Turkish troops were deployed in Cyprus to protect ethnic Turkish Cypriots from persecution by local Greeks who sought the island's incorporation into Greece.

In fact, it was Christofias and Talat who reached the political decision to open the checkpoint on Ledra.  Precisely these two politicians achieved a breakthrough in a negotiating process which had been frozen since 2004, after the failure of the referendum on the Annan plan.  It merits special mention that the rise to office in February 2008, in the Greek part of Cyprus , of Christofias, a supporter of reunification of the island and the establishment of federal relations with the Cypriot Turks, helped to change Nicosia's hitherto unyielding position.  Christofias is the mouthpiece of that section of the Greek and Greek Cypriot societies which realises the impossibility of subduing the Turkish Cypriots and therefore find it wiser to agree to federalization of the island and the preservation of its political integrity.  It is no accident that immediately after his election as president of the Republic of Cyprus, Christofias negotiated with the head of northern Cyprus the establishment of a group of experts to prepare an agreement towards settlement of the years-long conflict.

However, real progress in the talks has thus far been reached only on the issue of joint governance on the island, whereas other problems, such as questions about the border, property and security, are still far from resolution.  In the mean time, the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus expires on 15 June 2010.  The force was created on the basis of a 4 March 1964 resolution by the UN Security Council to prevent a resumption of hostilities between the Greek and Turkish communities on the island and to help maintain order.  This expiry date largely drives the intensification of United Nations' mediation.  On the other hand, the European Union also demands that the negotiation process be intensified, although it reserves criticism only for Turkey.

Turkey's importance and European "mere pretexts" 

The Cyprus issue remains one of the main obstacles to Turkey's accession to the EU.  Just recently, the EU Foreign Relations Committee voted on a report on Turkey by a member of the European Parliament from the Netherlands, Ria Oomen-Ruijten.  In particular, the report recommends that Ankara immediately withdraws its troops from Cyprus.  Commenting on yet another expression by Brussels of its position on the prospects for Turkey's accession to the EU, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:  "In the talks with Turkey, the EU does what it would not do to any other country.  All the conditions stipulated are mere pretexts."

Ankara believes that the ongoing talks between the Greek and Turkish communities of the island are the "last chance for peaceful regulation."  This opinion was stated in an article by Suat Kiniklioglu, deputy chairman of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party and member of the Turkish Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee, on the Project Syndicate analytical web site, published back in September 2009.  Voicing Ankara's official view, Kiniklioglu urged the European Community to admit that the ongoing talks provide an historic opportunity:  "Either the island will be reunited according to the UN plan adopted by both sides, or the status quo will have to be changed by some other method."  Turkey needs to change the status quo to put an end to the isolation of Northern Cyprus.  In addition, Ankara draws attention - and quite justly, too - to the fact that the Turkish Cypriots do not deserve the attitude shown towards them by the international community, if only because, in contrast to the Greek Cypriots, they supported peaceful regulation in the 2004 referendum.  Ignoring the opinion of the Turkish community might have a negative effect on the security of the whole of the Balkans, Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean region, that is, in areas where the "United States and the EU have vital interests," Ankara warns.

Certainly, Turkey knows very well that the West will never recognize Northern Cyprus as an independent state.  Thus Ankara has no illusions, despite even the "Kosovo precedent," when the West recognized the independence of the breakaway Serbian regions.  At the same time, Ankara believes that a settlement of the Cyprus problem will make an important contribution to the success of its talks on accession to the EU.  Not to mention the fact that Turkish Cyprus will automatically become part of the EU following reunification, and this will enable representatives of North Cyprus to be elected to the European Parliament and promote Ankara's interests there.  Turkey also maintains, with reason, that after the Greek Cypriots, Athens, too, will cease raising objections to its accession to the EU.

As for the West's position, both the EU and the United States are greatly interested in reconciliation on Cyprus.  The confrontation between Turkey and Greece is absolutely unacceptable to the West, as both countries are NATO members.  In particular, Washington does not want instability in the European part of the Mediterranean, right next to the "hot" Middle East.  The United States is also interested in speedy Turkish accession to the EU, which, in Washington's opinion, will strengthen the pro-US vector in Brussels.  Recent developments in the Middle East, including Ankara's counterterrorism operation in the north of Iraq and the broadening of Turkey's role in the region, have persuaded Americans that a powerful Turkey is a valuable ally which can be used to promote US interests in Europe and the Eurasian corridor much more effectively.

Of course, the road to peace in Cyprus will not be easy.  But the fact that the parties to the conflict have finally decided that the division of Aphrodite's isle offers no prospects, inspires hopes of success in the negotiating process.