WHO WANTS TO THROW A SPANNER IN THE WORKS FOR DMITRIY MEDVEDEV?

The second meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Sochi, specifically initiated by the Russian president, was not marked by a breakthrough in the Karabakh settlement process. But a certain shift was apparently recorded. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the parties at least reached a common understanding on the preamble to the document prepared by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. The very continuation of the dialogue is encouraging, indicating that the possibility of a peaceful settlement has not yet been exhausted. Otherwise, Azerbaijan, as previously stated by President Ilham Aliyev, would have refused to negotiate.

In any case, it was clear from the very outset that the peace process has not yet reached a level at which we could expect a breakthrough from the Sochi meeting. Another point is that while the Azerbaijani leadership went into negotiations with hopes of progress and a constructive spirit, the Armenian side predicted failure, attempting to predetermine the outcome of the meeting, as well as diminish the significance of Dmitriy Medvedev's initiative.

This is clearly evidenced by a statement made not by some Armenian politician, but by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan himself, immediately before his trip to Sochi. "No breakthrough is expected in the Karabakh settlement in the near future," he said, adding that "an artificial acceleration or deceleration of the process is unlikely to be of benefit to the negotiations."

It is notable that Nalbandyan's statement was made in concert with reports in some Russian media, which, even at a time when the President of Russia initiates another meeting between the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, continue to argue that it is of benefit to Moscow to freeze the conflict. Here is a small excerpt from an article entitled "Freeze Karabakh" published in the newspaper "Vremya Novostey": "Russia is playing a massive game with Turkey, which may result in changes in the disposition of forces in the South Caucasus. That's the main thing, not the Karabakh issue. On the one hand, Moscow's activity must show the Armenians that there is no cause for concern about the Russo-Turkish rapprochement. On the other hand, Russia is also important to Azerbaijanis: to show the West that Baku always has an alternative foreign policy vector. So Russia's activity does not arouse opposition from any of the parties. The intrigue in the South Caucasus has become too multifaceted to ignore the risks. If in Sochi the parties once again demonstrate their restraint in taking a step back, the impossibility of a step forward will not worry anyone. It is better to negotiate than not to negotiate. And there is no other way to avoid deterioration in the frozen conflict than a deeper freeze. The Rosbalt news agency went even further. "More and more analysts are inclined to think that Azerbaijan remains 'proudly isolated' on the question of the Karabakh settlement," says the article headlined, "Aliyev on the verge of giving up Karabakh". It adds that "given the existing balance of power, Azerbaijan clearly must make concessions to Armenia in order not to lose everything". In any case, Rosbalt has already become "famous" for its anti-Azerbaijani attacks and for inciting ethnic hatred in a multiethnic country. In order not to appear groundless, we should cite a few more agency headlines: "Azerbaijan will consist of five autonomous regions", "Nagornyy Karabakh: status quo as the lesser of two evils", "The twisted spring of the 'Talis issue'" etc.

It is no secret that a number of the Russian media openly interfere with Russia's peacekeeping mission in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement. This was said by the head of the policy analysis sector of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, Fuad Axundov, at an international media summit in Moscow back in December last year. He was speaking about the media coverage of situations in "hot spots".

"I would very much like the Russian mass media to relax and allow the two nations (Armenia and Azerbaijan) not to return to the 1980s and 1990s," Axundov said at the forum, expressing surprise at the allegation in a number of Russian mass media that the freezing of conflicts is ostensibly of benefit to Russia. He cited as an example the media in other countries - mediators in the Karabakh settlement - the United States and France, where it is impossible to find similar assertions about the intentions of their countries.

"They have no less freedom of speech than we do, but there is some sort of responsibility there," said the representative of Azerbaijan.

A question arises: who wants to throw a spanner in the works for Dmitriy Medvedev? Why do such reports appear on the eve of the talks brokered by the President of Russia? Given the image of the same Rosbalt news agency, it becomes clear that these points were given to the agency by Yerevan and its patrons in Russian circles. It seems that certain forces in Russia itself are seriously concerned about successful political moves by Dmitriy Medvedev. These forces effectively control Yerevan officials, as the Armenian foreign minister would not have made a statement playing down the Russian president's initiative against the wishes of his own patrons.

Here is another question: why did Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan need to travel to Sochi, if he did not hope for progress in the negotiations? Unlike the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, he does not know how to ski.