2009TH PAGE OF HISTORY

The global financial and economic crisis dominated all aspects of international life in 2009 and this was true, first and foremost, in politics.  The agendas of all the high level summits, forums, conferences and meetings organized in 2009 included the need to combat consequences of the crisis.

The world's leaders thought hard about what could be done.  Finally, straightforward panic gave way to rather more confident and optimistic sentiments.  However, in some countries, within Europe for example, the difficult economic situation resulted, alas, in domestic political instability.  Greece, in particular, was affected.  If there was a country helped by the crisis, one might say, to reassert its international standing, this was China which, in troubled financial and economic waters, remained quite calm:  this was due to a variety of factors; its huge workforce not the least important.

China saddling up

Many analysts predict that the People's Republic of China will soon take the lead in all economic indicators and the yuan's claims to become an international reserve currency are increasingly asserted.

These developments may become particularly painful for the USA, as the PRC is already its largest creditor, especially in the current crisis.  The West is also worried by Beijing's ever-increasing appetite for energy resources from practically all regions of the world and its constantly expanding military might.  However, Chinese mass-produced consumer goods remain the Middle Kingdom's main weapon.  You realize the sheer size of this phenomenon when you read "Made in China" on souvenirs like a small copy of the Statue of Liberty, or a badge showing Washington's main tourist attractions, on sale in the United States...

Things got so bad that many Western media described US President Barack Obama's tone during his visit to China in 2009 as all but fawning.  Michael Hirsch, author of "At war with ourselves.  Why America is squandering its chance to build a better world," wrote in Newsweek magazine that "in Asia, the USA no longer makes demands, it only asks."  At least this time around, Washington did not speak about violations of human rights in the Celestial Empire so much, or in the irritated manner it usually adopts.  However, there is little point in doing this: Beijing never reacts to criticism.

On the other hand, Washington is calmed by the fact that its dependence on Beijing is mutual.  In this light (the "health" of the dollar and trade), the PRC is bound to be worried about its own economic security:  there is fierce competition between the two countries.

Against this backdrop, only one conclusion can be reached:  thanks to China, the West now views the East from a new perspective.  For example, neighbouring India, which also has a huge workforce, is trying to catch up with the PRC.

The Uyghur crisis

In the mean time, China also attracted attention this year for the major disorders in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region, in which dozens of people died and hundreds were wounded.

The tragedy started with protest actions when two ethnic Uyghurs were killed at a toy factory in the town of Shaoguan in the province of Guangdong.  China laid responsibility for developments on Rebiya Kadeer, chairwoman of the World Uyghur Congress, who lives in the West and who was arrested in 1999 by the Chinese authorities on charges of "undermining national security" and released on bail in 2005.  The Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region is a mountainous province on the border with Kazakhstan, with a population of 21 million, of which 9 million are Uyghurs, a Turkic ethnic group predominantly Muslim by faith (and the largest ethnic minority in the west of China).  They fought for independence for many years, and founded the Islamic Republic of East Turkestan in the 1930s and the East China Revolutionary Republic in the 1940s, but in the 1950s they area came under Chinese control.  At present, some of the ethnic Uyghurs want wider autonomy, and some of them want complete separation from the PRC; this is also demanded by the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan.  According to reports from the Chinese authorities, the local special services prevented several terrorist acts, including some using aircraft, which Uyghur separatists were trying to organize.  Rebiya Kadeer categorically rejected any association with such acts and said in conversation with The Wall Street Journal that the number of Uyghurs killed was dramatically underreported by the Chinese authorities.

Obama's America

Meanwhile, 2009 was the first year of Barack Obama's presidential tenure:  his election to the post of White House tenant a few months before the year began drew huge interest and raised huge expectations for positive change throughout the world.  The Daily Mail reports that Obama would give himself a "solid" B+ grade for his first year in office.  For example, the US president is proud of progress on economic and international issues, and the only reason he did not give himself a higher grade is that some items on his agenda - health care reforms and the creation of a large number of jobs - remain unfulfilled so far.  However, while health care reform is a purely American problem, other members of the international community are most interested in the foreign political activities of the US leader who, has already managed, quite unexpectedly and, as many people think, a little prematurely, to win the Nobel prize.

It is noteworthy that some observers even inferred from Obama's speeches this year that the United States wants to give up its role as "world's manager," which manifests itself in invitations to other full-fledged partners to participate in US initiatives.  Also in 2009, Obama said, in a speech in Egypt, that Washington wishes to normalize relations with the Muslim world, which were badly damaged during the tenure of Obama's predecessor, George Bush.

In his Christmas interview, Obama also stressed that Washington's final decision to withdraw US troops from Iraq and to achieve stabilization in Afghanistan was, in his opinion, a positive development.

The Afghan lesson

In early December, after several months of painful reappraisal, the US leader announced a new US strategy for Afghanistan, in which additional 30,000 troops will be deployed over the next six months.  Obama admitted that the decision to deploy additional troops in Afghanistan was not an easy one for him:  "I reached this decision because I am certain that our security is threatened in Afghanistan and Pakistan."  Additional resources, in his words, are "needed to seize the initiative while it is still possible to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan in a responsible manner."

Let us remind readers that earlier, the commander of the International Security and Assistance Forces, ISAF, US General Stanley McChrystal, had asked for an increase in the international military contingent in Afghanistan of 40,000 personnel.  However, the number of US losses in Afghanistan continues to rise.  As for the Obama strategy, it will be based on military operations against the Taleban, cooperation with the United Nations, international partners and the Afghan people and a close partnership with Pakistan.  Washington considers the latter to be the key ally in this problematic region:  Islamabad's contribution to the fight with the Taleban and Al-Qaida organizations, which have entrenched themselves in barely accessible mountainous regions on the Afghan-Pakistani border, is considered very important and desirable.  Terrorists pose a threat to Pakistan itself, which is, incidentally, a nuclear power.  The Pakistani Army had to work hard this year to repel a large-scale offensive by the Taliban.

At the same time, the United States is going to allocate $7.5 billion to Islamabad over a five year period - in this way the White House is promoting the long-term development of the country.

"Invincible" Karzai

The Americans are trying their best to prevent the Taleban from toppling the government in Afghanistan.  The presidential elections which took place there in August in very difficult circumstances and which were accompanied by mass rigging and violence, posed great risks.  However, Hamid Karzai managed to secure the post for a second five-year term.  The run-off election was cancelled when Karzai's rival, 49-years-old Dr Abdulla Abdulla, former foreign minister and a close friend of the Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was assassinated by terrorists in 2001, refused to take part in the election because the vote was not fair and transparent.

A run-off was not in Washington's interests, because the election process required major support.  Many people realized that a continuing confrontation between Karzai and Abdulla would lead to a worsening of the situation in the country and acquire the form of ethnic strife between the Pashto, who supported Karzai, and the Tajik, who backed Abdulla.  And for Afghanistan, which is in the grip of violence anyway, this could have been the last straw.  However, there are doubts as to whether the presidential office is really the top post in the country.  After all, many observers say that the central government effectively only controls Kabul.  Going back to the United States, it should be noted that the White House administration has revised its fight against terrorism.  Terrorism still poses a threat to the United States and requires not only permanent vigilance, but also major financial investment.  For example, analysts' reports from the Congressional Research Service read that US expenditure on the fight against terrorism since September 2001 has already exceeded $1 trillion...

"Reset"

In addition, the United States has been trying to "reset" its relations with Russia.  Many people think that this too was not the least important reason why Obama made one of his most controversial decisions in 2009, to halt the Bush initiative to deploy a US missile defence system in Europe.  The Obama team has proposed its alternative to deployment of the missile defence system.  Throughout the year, Moscow and Washington have also been working on a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which is an important document for everyone in the world.

European pie

This year, Europe concentrated on keeping the Lisbon treaty alive; this envisages quite serious reforms of the EU (first and foremost, a reform of voting, that is, of the process of reaching collective decisions in the organization) and introduced new posts - a European Council president and foreign minister.

The Lisbon agreement came into effect on 1 December.  To achieve this, Brussels had to make major concessions to Ireland, whose small population had earlier rejected the document in a referendum (incidentally, in all other countries, the document was ratified by parliaments).  However, placating Dublin was not enough - after Ireland the Czech Republic turned difficult and demanded some benefits...

In the mean time, developments in 2009 show that the unilateral secession of Kosovo from Serbia in 2008, which was supported by most EU member states, might yet cost Europe dear.  For example, in June 2009, Greenland, which is part of Denmark, declared broader autonomy for itself - many people view this event as yet another step towards independence for the world's largest island.  The Greenland government will now make independent decisions on law enforcement and its judiciary systems and will manage all the island's natural resources (from diamonds to oil).  For now, Denmark remains in control of foreign policy, defence and monetary policy.

In addition, a majority of Catalonians supported secession from Spain in an unofficial referendum held in December.

Within this context, the international court in The Hague organized a public hearing on the issue of the legitimacy of the unilateral declaration of independence by the provisional self-governing institutions of Kosovo.  Then the international court will issue its advisory opinion on this issue - it is not expected before April 2010.

In other words, this year has demonstrated once again that not all is well with European unity, that conflict remains between the "natives" and "newcomer countries" and is not going to disappear in the near future, and that there is a gap between those who believe in bright prospects for the European Union and the so-called "Eurosceptics."  In the mean time, we should bear in mind that the EU is almost half a billion people, and the well-being of this mega-union of states in the international political system is very important to all.  In principle, however, the viability of the EU remains moot, if we are mindful of the threats which may arise in the second decade of the 21st century...

The Iranian bomb

As in previous years, the international community spent the whole of 2009 trying to dissuade Iran from further development of its nuclear programme.  Tehran received various ultimatums which yielded no results whatsoever.  At some points the international community waxed optimistic, but nothing was achieved...  In the mean time, reports were disseminated that the Islamic Republic of Iran was manufacturing the new generation IR4 and IR3 centrifuges and planned to put them into operation by the end of the next Iranian year, on 21 March 2011.  At the same time, accusations were made against Tehran that it had tested a component of a nuclear bomb, a neutron detonator.

The world also had to "digest", in May 2009, the latest nuclear tests and missile launch exercises by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.  This situation is worsened by the fact that no one knows for certain what that country's plans are, just as no one knows exactly what state of health irreplaceable leader Kim Jong-il is in.  At any rate, the Western media attempted to sniff out all possible information on the North Korean leader's most likely successor - his younger son Kim Jong-un.  However, by the end of the year, the DPRK, where the majority of the population is on the verge of starvation, had again restrained its nuclear ambitions...

Elections Iranian style

What the year of 2009 will certainly be remembered for is the presidential election in Iran, which took place on 12 June and which resulted in mass rallies in the country.  Incumbent President Mahmud Ahmadinejad received 62.63% of the votes, former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi received 33.75%, and two other candidates attracted more than 2%.  However, Mousavi announced that he had won long before the official results were announced and he later claimed that the vote was rigged and brought hundreds of thousands of his supporters onto the streets of Tehran and other cities.  Iran had not seen large-scale protest rallies of this extent since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.  The protesters demanded that new elections be held and that the authorities should admit that they rigged the election.  According to human rights activists, dozens of civilians were killed by law enforcement officers in several weeks in Iran, and many opposition leaders were put behind bars.

No one expected such a flight of passion and intrigue: it had seemed an impossibility in Iran.  Naturally, the incumbent authorities blamed it all on "wanton imperialists."  In the mean time, US President Barack Obama noted that in fact, the political programmes of Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not very different.  Indeed, no one should forget that everything in the Islamic Republic is done as the supreme spiritual leader wishes, and he is unlikely to make concessions to the West...

The Holy Land is still on fire

The Arab-Israeli conflict did not break its deadlock in 2009.  US efforts to regulate the Near East conflict have not yielded any positive results, although Washington did try to revive the peace process.  Barack Obama, who, as eyewitnesses say, looked irritated after talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Administration President Mahmud Abbas during the UN General Assembly in New York, said that the process of taking one step forward and two steps backward could not continue and that success in this case depended on everyone, so action in this situation was an urgent necessity.  Elections for the head of the Palestinian authority and members of the legislative assembly are scheduled for January.  In the mean time, in the Gaza strip, Hamas leaders have already declared the election illegal.  The humanitarian situation in the autonomous entity continues to worsen too.

The Ice Age, the Deluge, or the Great Drought?

Global warming was suddenly declared one of mankind's most important problems and, possibly, the most important of its problems, covering all areas - the environment, economy and politics - in the last few weeks of 2009.  And this happened despite the fact that there is no consensus between world leaders and researchers on whether global warming is really anthropogenic.  The UN conference on climate change, which assembled leaders of more than 190 countries in mid-December in Copenhagen, ended, as many experts say, in downright fiasco.  Issued literally at the last moment, the final declaration turned out to be very indecisive; its greatest shortcoming being that it does not include any specific limitations on emissions and, therefore, does not imply any specific commitments.  Furthermore, the Western media declare that the Copenhagen conference has once again exposed the difference between the "well-fed" and the "hungry" countries and demonstrated the United Nation's helplessness in the face of truly pressing and difficult problems.

Russia in focus

This year Russia survived yet another major man-made disaster - the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power station, a heinous terrorist act - the blowing-up of the Nevskiy Express train, and a major tragedy arising out of negligence - the fire at a night club in the city of Perm, which laid bare many of the country's problems.  The year 2009 in Russia was also marked by an intensification of violence in the Caucasus.  Gunmen declared open season on officials and especially on law enforcement officers.  It is notable that the Kremlin, in the person of President Dmitriy Medvedev, began to discuss openly the ills of present-day Russia - the "primitive raw materials-based economy," "chronic, centuries-old corruption," "weak democracy."  Medvedev is sure that none of this is worth lugging into the future...

Time to tally the results

This is not just the end of the year - it is already possible to summarize the first decade of the 21st century.  We can only guess what our descendants will call this period - we would need to look back at our time after another couple of decades.  For now, we are all alive, despite the fact that, just as before the start of year 2000, we again expect the "end of the world" (this time round it was apparently the Mayans who made the gloomy prophecy).  And this is perhaps the most important result of 2009.  We can only hope that we will be able to say the same in another 12 months' time...