TIS EASY TO SEE HARD TO FORESEE

The Constitutional Court of Turkey has unanimously resolved to close the Democratic Society Party (DTP) - the country's only pro-Kurdish political force. The chairman of the Constitutional Court of Turkey, Hasim Kilik, declared: "The DTP should stop its activities. This decision is based on the fact that its representatives are connected with a terrorist organization."

The reason for the court's decision was that in early November, militants from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), of connections with which the DTP has been accused, claimed responsibility for killing seven Turkish soldiers.

The judges not only closed the party, but also imposed a five-year ban on political activities by 37 leading officials of the pro-Kurdish party. This means that the leading elite of the party will not be able to unite under a different political entity.

It must be noted that, despite its relatively short period of existence, the DTP continued the political traditions of 20 years ago. As you know, Turkey's first pro-Kurdish political force (the People's Worker's Party) was founded in 1989 and was subsequently replaced by six similar entities, most of which were closed due to their links with the PKK or because of their attempts to "split the unitary structure of the state and the unity of society." In general, the DTP is the 27th party outlawed in Turkey, and 24 of them have been closed by the Constitutional Court since 1963.

However, the fate of the DTP, which was set up on 9 November 2005, in many respects was sealed on 16 November 2007 when the Prosecutor-General's Office initiated the process of closing the party. However, the moment of the decision by the Constitutional Court was so "inappropriate" that even the ruling party noted the "political nature" of the steps taken by the Constitutional Court. The DTP, having secured 21 mandates and formed the fourth largest faction in the Turkish parliament, virtually dropped out of the game precisely at the moment when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the "Democratic Initiative", which implied increased dialogue with ethnic minorities, especially Kurds.

However, the decision of the Constitutional Court of Turkey put an end not only to the activities of the pro-Kurdish political force, but, apparently, to the "Democratic Initiative" of the ruling Justice and Development Party.

Thus, it seems, forecasts about the absence of any prospect for Ankara's "Democratic Initiative" proved to be correct. It is obvious that in the current situation, the plans of the ruling elite will really have to wait. Although it was clear from the very outset that the situation both inside and outside Turkey was not yet ripe for this kind of radical reforms. Society was not ready for dialogue with Kurdish separatists. And the reform package would not eliminate the "Kurdish question" and the problem of terrorist activities by the PKK which responded to Ankara's "Democratic Initiative" by killing seven Turkish soldiers.

The situation is exactly the same with the question of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement. In response to a gesture of goodwill on the part of Ankara, Yerevan refuses not only to give up its claims about the fictitious "Armenian genocide", but also territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey itself. The Turkish prime minister's latest visit to Washington, and his statement linking the dialogue with Armenia with the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands showed that the initiative "zero problems with neighbours", as expected, cannot move forward due to the unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

Thus, the Justice and Development Party, which attempted from the very beginning to neutralize the "Kurdish" and "Armenian" cards in the hands of its opponents in the West, is effectively deadlocked. Regarding the reaction of the West, as expected, the EU condemned the decision of the Turkish court to close the pro-Kurdish party. The United States, meanwhile, assessed it as an internal affair of Turkey.

But whatever the reaction, the decision of the Constitutional Court cannot be revised. For this reason, it is possible that the crisis has worsened and the parliament will decide to hold early elections.

Legally, 28 parliamentary seats need to become vacant for this. If we add the six vacant seats to the 21 DTP seats, one seat is missing. But at the last minute, the pro-Kurdish party was backed by the independent MP Ufuk Aras. This means that there is the necessary number of seats for extraordinary elections. However, the decision to hold elections is made by the leadership of the parliament, i.e. representatives of the same ruling party, which means that they have the last say.

It is only clear that Turkey has stepped into a rather difficult period of political disasters, and it will be very difficult to find a way out of it even in the medium term.