A STEP INTO NOWHERE

Turkey's desire to increase its geopolitical role continues to remain a centre of attention for the international community.  And this is natural, as is the fact that the steps Ankara takes to achieve this goal arouse controversial reactions.

While the Turkish opposition and a sizeable section of the Turkish public deem actions by the Erdogan government a deviation from fundamental positions in the field of national security, Ankara manages to score some points with its policy internationally.

In the opinion of a number of Russian experts, Turkey is not a "periphery" or a "younger brother" of the United States and NATO, but a very important component of regional security and a Eurasian centre.  And there is logic in this.

For example, in the last few years, Ankara has achieved a major breakthrough in relations with Syria.  As a result, a wide strip of minefields, created in the late 1950s along the entire Turkish-Syrian border is no longer relevant because Syria has taken concrete steps to check the activities of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party on its territory.  The visa regime between the two countries was also simplified.  Simultaneously, Turkey signed agreements with Iran on cooperation in the energy sector, opening the possibility of Iranian participation in the Nabucco project.  And all this was done against Washington's wishes.

At the same time, Ankara has developed a strategy of developing relations with countries of the African continent, a clear demonstration being the latest visit by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Libya.  And most important, after talks with Muammar Qaddafi, Turkey said it wanted to use the network of Libyan diplomatic missions to promote its interests on the "Dark Continent."

Turkish diplomatic efforts in the Balkans and the visit of President Abdulla Gul to Belgrade merit special mention.  This made it possible to ease differences with Serbia despite Ankara's recognition of the independence of the Serbian region of Kosovo.  However, after the August 2008 events in South Ossetia and Israel's operation in Gaza, Ankara realized that any further strengthening of its positions is hampered by no less important external and domestic problems.  First and foremost among them is the unfortunate "Cyprus issue," then there are relations with Armenia, which occupies lands belonging to Turkey's fraternal state Azerbaijan, and which makes no secret of its territorial claims against Turkey itself, demanding that an imaginary "genocide" be recognized and, finally, there is the  "Kurdish issue."

After all, precisely these arguments are cited by Turkey's opponents when they talk about the need to halt talks on Ankara's membership of the European Union.  These issues force Ankara to spend billions of dollars every year on operations to neutralise the Kurdistan Workers' Party in border provinces and in the north of Iraq.  The same factors narrow the scope of Turkish diplomacy in countries which have made pro-Armenian decisions on the "events of the 1915 in the Ottoman Empire" and prevent the consolidation of Ankara's positions in the South Caucasus and Iraq.

Naturally, without eliminating the above barriers, Ankara's attempts to become a recognized "regional leader" are doomed to failure.  And, therefore, it is vital for Turkey to project the image of a supporter of solutions to the "traditional" problems.

This conclusion is further corroborated by the fact that, just a few days after the beginning of heated debates in the Turkish Parliament, President Abdulla Gul openly announced that, thanks to the initiative of the ruling party, the "Kurdish" and "Armenian" questions have been removed from the country's agenda.  And this was said despite the fact that neither of these issues has been resolved, and Armenia-related initiatives were side-stepped altogether in view of Armenia's unrestrained claims and its continuing occupation of Azerbaijani territory.

In an interview with Western media, the head of the Turkish state said that his country intended to continue pursuing a course of problem resolution with neighbouring states.  "If the level of democracy in the country is increased, taboos disappear," Gul said, meaning the "Kurdish" and "Armenian" issues.

It is worth adding here that the phrase "democratic initiative," which stirred so much passion, not only among the opposition, but also in the ranks of the ruling party, has firmly established itself on the Turkish agenda in recent months.

So what is the gist of the initiatives which Ankara strives to implement despite harsh criticism from its opponents and the ruling Justice and Development Party's continuing fall in approval ratings?

It was no accident that 10 November - the anniversary of republic founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's death - was deliberately chosen as the date for the start of parliamentary elections.  The ruling elite attempted thereby to prove its adherence to the tenets of the founder of the state.  Special emphasis is placed on the idea that the "Democratic Initiative" has to be viewed as a desire to extend the rights of ethnic Kurds and thereby weaken the ideological framework of the terrorists.

"The ultimate goal is to achieve national unity and brotherhood.  This is a process of democracy," the prime minister stressed, speaking in Parliament.  "The goal is to make people happy.  Please understand this," Erdogan said, replying to the opposition's objections.

The prime minister also accused the opposition parties of ignoring the residents of Eastern Anatolia.  "Diversity - is a precious thing.  The problems of our regions are our problems.  This is precisely why we cannot ignore them.  We cannot turn a blind eye to what is going on there."  Addressing all political parties, the prime minister urged them to take broader views of the issues to resolve frozen problems.

For his part, Turkish Internal Affairs Minister Besir Atalay, presenting the government's plan, described it in the following manner:  "The package of initiatives has two intertwined objectives - to put an end to terrorism and to "improve democratic institutions."

There are plans to lift the ban on using other languages in the religious and social spheres; old Kurdish place names will be restored; political campaigns in the languages of ethnic minorities will be allowed, said the internal affairs minister.

The government also plans to change the organizational structure of the Human Rights Department of the Turkish Government - it will become an independent organization.

In addition, the government plans to create an independent organ of control over the violations of human rights by executive departments.  And checkpoints will be removed from the highways of south-eastern and southern Anatolia to simplify movement across the country.  "These amendments and mechanisms are aimed at preventing the infringement of liberties of all our citizens, regardless of their ethnicity, sex, or political orientation," said Atalay.

The minister drew attention to the fact that this is by no means an exhaustive list of the provisions of the Democratic Initiative, which is a dynamic process and which will be amended continuously.  The internal affairs minister also said that it was necessary to make changes to the country's constitution:  "Our people do not deserve a constitution like this.  A new pluralist constitution must be written after the broadest possible public discussion."

In the words of Besir Atalay, ever since the Justice and Development Party came to power, the government has been working continuously on democratization and it will continue to work in this direction.  He stressed, at the same time, that the Government does not intend to change the main principles of statehood which are set out in the first three articles of the Constitution, namely: that Turkey is a secular, democratic, unitary state whose language is Turkish.  He also said that the "national anthem and flag will also be beyond all discussion."

The key role in the Democratic Initiative, in the mean time, belongs to the economic aspect.  The government is drafting development projects for the eastern and south-eastern regions of the country which have suffered economically as a result of the Kurdistan Workers' Party's activities.

Besir Atalay underlined that the Democratic Initiative targets not some "specific group," but covers the entire country.  "This is why the 'Democratic Initiative' will be implemented under the slogan "More freedom for everyone."  This will not weaken Turkey, on the contrary, it will make it stronger," the minister said.

However, in reply, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the opposition National Movement Party, recalled that in 2002, when the Justice and Development Party came to power, "they promised to put an end to terrorism, and now, seven years later, they want to put an end to the 'mono-ethnic system' in Turkey."  "Parliament is discussing a demolition plan.  And we are witnesses to how terrorism achieves its aims using politicians," Bahceli said, arguing that the Government is concentrating its efforts on granting the terrorists' demands.  This, in his opinion, will lead to misperceptions - that the ruling party represents the interests of all the Kurds.  As a result, the politician called the "Kurdish initiative" a plot and a serious threat to Turkish citizens.

And the leader of the Republican People's Party, Deniz Baykal, voiced his certainty that the government initiative is a process of deceit and that it was not clear whom the ruling party wanted as its partner in this process.

Baykal is sure that the ruling party is conducting secret negotiations with Abdulla Ocalan (former leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, currently imprisoned) to make him a mediator in talks with the KWP.  He said that holding talks with an armed organization was a mistake, stressing that the ethnic Kurds who live in Turkey are "Kurds of the Turkish nation, who cannot be separated from the rest of the population."

Let us note that, despite the above-mentioned criticism, the Turkish government lifted the time limits on broadcasts in the languages and dialects of ethnic minorities.  The appropriate decree came into effect on 13 November.

Previously, radio stations were allowed to air programmes in other languages and dialects for no more than 1 hour a day, and no more than 4 hours a week.  For television stations, the air time limit for such programmes is 45 minutes a day and 4 hours a week.

Changes were made to the holy of holies of the Turkish government machinery - the National Security Directorate, in which representatives of ethnic minorities were not allowed work, until now.  And the Government does not want to stop here.  Granting broader rights to the supporters of the Alevi religious movement is the next step.

But even these concessions did not satisfy the only political mouthpiece of the ethnic Kurds - the Democratic Society Party criticized the Government plans, calling them "insufficient."  According to party leader Ahmet Turk, Erdogan's initiatives will not resolve the KWP problem:  the politician argues that dialogue has to be conducted precisely with that party.  However, the government rejects this suggestion categorically.

In the mean time, one of the main players in the domestic political life of Turkey, the General Staff, has not yet had its final say, which is worrying Erdogan's supporters.

Judging by all the above-mentioned facts, the political reforms of the Turkish authorities are unlikely to yield the desired results.  Opinion polls of mid-November show that public support for the policy of the ruling party is waning, and more than a half of the population (51%) are against the "Democratic Initiative."  Fifty-nine percent of respondents believe that the country's political leaders have lost control of this process.  And only 35.4% of the population supports the initiative.  This shows that the "initiative" lost 13% of supporters in two months.  The number of people who are displeased with government policy in general has also increased, reaching 49.9%.

All this also shows that the parliamentary elections of 2012 will end in the creation of a coalition and, therefore, the ruling party will not be able to propose reforms of the "Democratic Initiative" type.  And the quick dividends, as promised by the Turkish prime minister, are quite ephemeral and are intended mostly for enhancement of the country's foreign political image.