A "UNION OF SOVEREIGN STATES" OR "SUPERPOWER"?

So, it has happened:  in a recent referendum, 67.1% of residents of conservative Ireland (with a turnout of 59%) finally approved the Lisbon agreement, which is intended to replace the failed EU constitution, which was "buried" by universal vote in France and the Netherlands in 2005.  Only 32.9% of the Irish voted against the Lisbon Protocol, although 53.4% opposed it in the first referendum in June 2008,.

The Lisbon agreement, which was signed by the leaders of the EU countries in Portugal in December 2007, was described as a guarantor of sorts of the future of the EU: the document sets out more effective principles and mechanisms  for the functioning of the EU, for which purpose some institutional reforms must be carried out.  However, not all residents of the European community agree unambiguously to the planned changes.  For the agreement to come into effect, it has to be approved by all the countries of the European Union.

This is why Brussels watched the results of the second referendum in the small nation of Ireland closely and with genuine excitement.  Ireland is considered one of the most conservative countries in Europe:  its people guard their traditions and established rules of everyday life, culture and religion as well as of business (low taxes).  To please the Irish, Brussels had to make concessions:  the Lisbon agreement cannot affect the neutral status of Ireland and the people of the country will regulate taxation and family law (divorce, abortion etc.)

In the mean time, observers noted, not without sarcasm, yet another reason for Dublin's sudden accommodation:  the economic crisis, which affected Ireland much more seriously than many other countries of the EU, brought with it a rise in rates of unemployment, inflation and other indicators of difficult times.  These factors undermined the belief of the Irish in their self-sufficiency (and no need for cooperation with other countries which, besides its benefits, also makes them subject to "common" laws).  Especially as they witnessed the example of Iceland, which is not affiliated with the EU and whose economy found itself in a sad state within just a few months.  Dublin realized immediately what "collective" support means in practice.

Politicians in Brussels are very pleased with Ireland's decision:  European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that it was a "wonderful day for Europe."  Many of his colleagues, who claim that when the political reforms contained in the Lisbon protocol are carried out, the EU's work will be faster and more productive, and its role in the international arena will increase dramatically.  This will happen because the voice of a Europe which is truly united in its aspirations will be heard much more clearly than even the individual voices of such major players in international politics as France and Germany.

At any rate, following the expansion which increased the number of EU member states to 27, a revision of decision making mechanisms has become a necessity.  For example, EU decisions are currently reached by consensus and if one country disagrees with something, it can simply block the organization's work.  This is why the Lisbon protocol refers to another system, namely, the principle of "double qualified majority," by which a decision is made once at least 55% of EU countries, containing at least 65% of the EU population, vote for it.  However, if the EU has to address complex and controversial issues of vital importance, the old voting system, requiring the approval of all 27 EU member countries, will be used.

In addition, the Lisbon agreement proposes a reduction in the number of European commissioners from the current 27 to 17, with the addition of a European commissioner for foreign policy, who will be given broad powers.  The commissioner will play the role of today's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy (Javier Solana) and the European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy (Benita Ferrero-Waldner).  The most likely candidate for the post of the EU foreign minister is the same Javier Solana.  The commissioner will be elected for a term of 5 years.  The number of members of the European Parliament should also be reduced, from 785 to 751, but the European Parliament will have more influence on legislative initiatives.

However, one of the most notable provisions of the Lisbon agreement is a clause to introduce a so-called Council of Europe president, who will be elected (not directly, but by the leaders of EU member countries) for a term of 2.5 years (with the possibility of re-election for a second term).  This innovation will cancel the mechanism by which the EU presidency is rotated among member countries, which currently requires the transfer of the presidency every six months.  It was decided in Brussels that it was not very practical to entrust the presidency of the EU, which has a population of 492 million people and the largest economy, to a small country like Croatia.

There are several candidates for the post of EU president and the favourite is former British prime minister Tony Blair who, it is thought, will be supported by all five leading states of the EU - France, Italy, Britain, Spain and even Germany.  The former British prime minister can also count on support from a number of Central and Eastern European countries, such as Bulgaria, Romania, and the Czech Republic.

Among Blair's rivals are Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende (they say that German Chancellor Angela Merkel supports him), Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, former Spanish prime minister Felipe Gonzalez (however, he has already said that he has no "desire to preside anywhere at all"), former Finnish prime minister Paavo Lipponen and former Irish president Mary Robinson.

However, Blair is clearly more experienced in international affairs, not to mention his reputation and established relations with the "powers that be," for example, with US President Barack Obama and incumbent Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin or Chinese Chairman Hu Jintao.  Experts maintain that what might obstruct Blair is his candidature being discussed too prematurely and too openly.  The Independent, for example, wrote that a campaign has already been launched by European politicians against the former British prime minister's candidature for the post of "EU president."  In addition, chairman of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso has said that it is wrong to talk about a "President of Europe" because, according to the Lisbon agreement, the post of president of the European Council must be introduced, nothing else.  And the possibility cannot be ruled out of the post being offered to a more neutral person than the well-known politician Tony Blair.

However, it is also too early to talk about Blair's chances because the agreement on the Lisbon protocol has been ratified by only 26 of the 27 EU member countries.  After Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic remained; the protocol had been ratified by their parliaments but awaited the signatures of euro sceptic presidents Lech Kaczynski and Vaclav Klaus.  Kaczynski surrendered first, although he delayed to the last moment the signing of a document important to Brussels, stressing in particular that he had to wait for the result of the Irish referendum.

"The fact that the Irish people have changed their mind means the revival of the agreement, and there are no longer any objections to ratification of the agreement," Kaczynski said at the signing ceremony, stressing that the EU is a "successful experiment which has no precedent in human history," but it is still a union of sovereign states, not one super state.  At the same time, Kaczynski also added that the organization must remain open to the adoption of new members, not only in the Balkans, but also for countries like Georgia.

So, for now, the only country yet to ratify the Lisbon agreement is the Czech Republic.  Vaclav Klaus, refuses to sign the protocol until the Czech constitutional court has decreed that it complies with the country's constitution.  A group of Czech senators, who opposed the country's integration into Europe and who believe that the Lisbon agreement does not conform with provisions of the Czech constitution on the sovereignty of the Czech Republic, initiated this process.  Klaus, who in the past has called for a halt to the emergence of the "state of Europe", is only too pleased about this.

Also, in a phone conversation with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, Klaus said that, before the agreement is signed, it is necessary to add a provision to the European Charter of fundamental rights (the charter will be mandatory when the Lisbon agreement comes into force); this would rule out potential financial claims against the Czech Republic by ethnic Germans who were deported from the Sudetenland after World War II.  However, this condition brought a mixed reaction from European politicians.  They say that under the Czech constitution, international agreements are not concluded by the president, but by the government.

It is quite significant that there are, apparently, no plans to cajole the Czech Republic in case the local sceptics' viewpoint prevails, as was the case in Ireland - there is already talk that Prague might find itself isolated in Europe if this scenario becomes a reality.  So the Czech president may well change his mind on this matter, and quite soon too.

Incidentally, ITAR-TASS reports that the group of 60 members of the Law and Justice opposition party grouping in the Polish Parliament is going to file a suite with the Polish constitutional tribunal to verify compliance of the Lisbon agreement with the Polish constitution...

In the mean time, depending on how long the Czech Republic drags its feet before signing a ratification of the Lisbon agreement, a new obstacle might arise, this time in Britain, where the Conservative Party, which is certain that it will win the upcoming parliamentary election, intend to organize a referendum on ratification - it has already been ratified by Parliament - after coming to power.  Conservative leader David Cameron and his party members, who have no doubts that they will soon defeat the ruling Labour Party, are against a strengthening of the EU's role.

This is why EU leaders want the agreement to be finally ratified this year - well before the election in Britain - scheduled for next spring.  France and Germany are particularly active here.  If, however, the British Conservative Party and the incumbent Czech leaders try to reach an agreement on cooperation, it will be impossible to hide and Brussels might respond in some way.

So, expectations of a future "super state of the EU" may be described as moderately optimistic.  If European integration begins to collapse, this could end up quite lamentably and might even result in dissolution of the union into several alliances.  The point is that among the 27 EU member countries there are "players" of different weights, and not everyone is happy with each other.  Some even suspect their neighbours of a desire to "freeload," and others of a desire to be "the boss". Despite all the obstacles, the EU's potential is impressive, for it could become a real "superpower," which would shift the "centre of gravity," currently positioned between the USA and China, and would thereby influence the balance of power in the international arena.

Of course, for Azerbaijan a strengthening of the role and authority of a united Europe in the international political arena is the preferable development.  Brussels consistently fosters stability, both political and economic, in the post-Soviet states and, through different programmes and projects, attempts to put its aspirations into effect.  However, this state of affairs is achieved via the interdependence of processes, and European politicians know this very well:  strong and stable neighbours of the European Union strengthen the union's own positions in the geopolitical arena.

At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the referendum in Ireland might even turn out to be a historic event because it blazes a trail for Europe towards a geopolitical model which could be emulated elsewhere.  Many commentators are convinced that the future of mankind can only be guaranteed by a supranational system of government.

We will see soon enough who will win:  the politicians who are for the "state of Europe" or the "euro sceptics."  And the next few years will finally show us whether the dream of a truly "united Europe" is realised or dispelled.