ATTENTION, EAST!

The geopolitical panorama of the world is rapidly changing. This process is accompanied by a shift in the geopolitical and economic centre from the West to the East on a global scale, the well-known political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in his recent article "NATO and World Security" published in The New York Times. Central Asia is the most frequently mentioned region here, and for several reasons. First, Russia, the Caspian region, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and India, which attract the greatest attention in the West, are located in the Asian region. Second, the most optimum energy corridor from the East to the West passes through the Central Asia-Caucasus region. Third, new power centres (primarily China and India), which the West sees as its major rivals in geopolitical, military and energy security, border on Central Asia. Afghanistan and Pakistan, which cause the greatest concern in the West in terms of terrorism, also border on Central Asia. All these factors combined provide a basis to predict the transformation of Central Asia in the near future into one of the hottest arenas of world politics.

An area of geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risks in Central Asia intersect in three planes. Firstly, in diplomatic moves. Diplomacy precedes any political, geopolitical and military step. No serious global agenda can be realized without diplomatic attack. In this context, it cannot be ruled out that the West, led by the United States, will intensify its diplomatic activity, which will be opposed by Russia, China, India and other countries which have their interests in the region. Accordingly, we can assume that one of the biggest diplomatic games of the century is brewing. Secondly, we are talking about security risks. Today Central Asia is one of the leading places in the energy projects of the West. To implement major oil and gas projects, the West needs to neutralize such ambitious rivals and major consumers as Russia, China and India. As is known, Russia controls most of the energy resources of Central Asia. China plans to lay a major gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Military security is also closely related to this issue, although it does not cover it completely. Thirdly, the issue of inconsistency in geopolitical interests acquires a wider meaning and becomes a source of risk. Thus, the convergence of inter-state disagreements existing in Central Asia and differences existing in the international arena creates a disturbing panorama where the dangerous combination of the conflict of interests of great powers and contradictions between the states of Central Asia gives serious food for thought.

To draw general conclusions related to all these, let's consider the geopolitical and ethno-geographical risks in Central Asia today. Kyrgyz-Uzbek, Kyrgyz-Tajik, Uzbek-Tajik and, partly Kazakh-Uzbek relations can also be attributed to risks able to rise to the level of ethnic differences in Central Asia. 

Kyrgyz-Uzbek relations

The most difficult and still unresolved problem between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan is the lack of full delineation of borders between these countries. This process is at an early stage and so far a 250 km section of the 1,300 km common border has been delineated. According to various sources, there are approximately 70-100 sites on which the parties cannot come to any compromise.

The enclave factor also plays an important role in bilateral relations between these countries. On the territory of Kyrgyzstan there are two Uzbek enclaves (Sokh and Shahimardan) with a population of approximately 40,000-50,000. In turn, Uzbekistan has a Kyrgyz enclave - the village of Barak in the Osh region with a population of 600 people. Living in enclaves creates some difficulties for their residents.

The biggest problem in bilateral relations is the uneven distribution of ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the border areas. The Uzbek diaspora is the largest ethnic group in Kyrgyzstan. Most of this ethnic diaspora lives in the regions of Osh, Jaldabad and Batken. In addition, the Uzbek diaspora also has historically traditional connections in the north of Kyrgyzstan.

A striking example of Kyrgyz-Uzbek differences could be the major confrontation in the Osh and Jaldabad regions in the parliamentary elections of 2000 when the national factor was sometimes so important in individual constituencies that it contributed to the creation in the region of fertile grounds for inter-ethnic clashes between the Uzbeks and Kyrgyz. The penetration of fighters of the Islamic movement in 1999 into the territory of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan also very seriously left the leaders of these countries face to face with the problem of protecting their borders.

Thus, at this stage, Kyrgyz-Uzbek ethnic relations are quite volatile. In fact, the location of the two countries almost in the centre of Central Asia suggests that the current tensions there could be a threat to stability in the region as a whole.

Kyrgyz-Tajik relations

There are approximately 70 disputed territories on the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These territories are located mainly in the Batken region and in Leylak district of Kyrgyzstan's Osh region, as well as in Isfara and Jirgatar districts of Tajikistan's Khojand region. The delimitation of borders between the two countries is at an early stage and with good reason we can say that the leaderships of both countries have not yet embarked on a serious solution to this problem. There is a relatively tense situation in the Batken region, in Leylak district of Kyrgyzstan's Osh region and in the Isfara district of Tajikistan's Khojand region.

The territorial problem between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is aggravated by the factor of enclaves. On the territory of Kyrgyzstan there is the Vorukh enclave with an area of 130,000 square kilometres. According to various sources, its total population amounts to 23,000-29,000, of which 95 per cent are Tajiks and 5 per cent Uzbeks.

The above reasons have led to social tensions between the Kyrgyz and Tajiks. Minor skirmishes between them began in the 1980s when these republics were part of the USSR. Examples are the Vorukh-Tanker (1982) and Machte-Aktatyr (1988) events. The largest confrontation occurred in 1989 between Kyrgyz from Kyrgyzstan's Batken district and Tajikistan's Isfara district. Although in the early 1990s, the political and administrative leaderships of Isfara and Batken districts began negotiations to redraw the borders in accordance with the ethnic composition of the local population, they still have not yielded any serious results.

Thus, inter-ethnic tensions continue to take place in the border regions of these republics and may gradually reach the interstate level.

Uzbek-Tajik relations

Uzbek-Tajik relations stand out for particular tensions in Central Asia. They are most clearly manifested by the fusion of ethnic and interstate conflicts. The standoff between the Uzbeks and Tajiks is the most long-standing conflict in Central Asia.

As you know, until 1929, Tajikistan was part of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic as an autonomous republic. Along with this, according to some experts, most territories, especially those with a population of ethnic Tajiks, were not part of the autonomy at the time. But some experts suggest that another factor increasing tension is the presence of ethnic Tajiks first outside the Tajik SSR and then, independent Tajikistan. According to some reports, there are some 5 or 6 million Tajiks (about 20-25 per cent of the total population) in Uzbekistan. According to official data, their population is several times lower, which is due to the registration of ethnic Tajiks as Uzbeks. More than half of the Tajiks live in Uzbekistan's economically underdeveloped areas such as Surhadar, Fergana and Kashkadarya where living standards are far below the national average. The level of unemployment is very high, and it is constantly rising against the backdrop of rapid demographic growth. Uzbekistan's Tajik population is extremely passive in the political life of the country.

At the same time, Tajikistan has a large Uzbek diaspora of more than 1 million people, which ranks second after the Tajiks and comprises 25 per cent of the country's population. Unlike Tajiks living in Uzbekistan, the Uzbek citizens of Tajikistan are actively involved in political and economic life of the country in accordance with their interests and needs. This factor especially manifested itself during the civil war in Tajikistan in the early 1990s, when ethnic Uzbeks, supported by Tashkent, had a significant influence on the course of events in the country.

Thus, Uzbek-Tajik relations can be called the most strained in Central Asia. The situation is also negatively affected by the lack of serious proposals that could lead to positive results in addressing this problem.

Kazakh-Uzbek relations

Although Kazakh-Uzbek relations can be called stable, a possible escalation of tensions in bilateral relations in the future cannot be discarded.

 The delimitation of borders between the two countries has become a serious problem because of the lack of clear boundaries of ethnic groups in border areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The administrative borders of the Soviet Union did not match the historical settlement of Kazakhs and Uzbeks. Thus, during territorial delimitation, traditional Uzbek-populated areas were handed over to Kazakhstan, while Kazakh-populated areas became part of Uzbekistan. Although certain territories were exchanged later, the change that emerged in the ethnic composition of the population over time did not allow this issue to be resolved once and for all.

In the southern regions of Kazakhstan there is a large Uzbek diaspora: Sayram district is home to about 134,000 Uzbeks (62 per cent of the population) and Saryagay distict to 9,000 Uzbeks (4.2 per cent) while in the city of Turkestan, 79,000 (43.7 per cent) of the population are Uzbeks.

Thus, it is practically impossible to precisely define the belonging of a particular territory to this or that state. However, in comparison with other regions of Central Asia, Kazakh-Uzbek relations are characterized by their stability, although the existence of ethnic differences is an indisputable fact. Just like in the whole of Central Asia, they also suffer from such problems as ethnic and territorial disputes, the lack of clear delineation of borders and the lack of water and land resources.

East is a delicate thing

As you can see, the ethnic factor plays an important role in the issue of stability and security in Central Asia. In this capacity, it acquires geopolitical importance and actually plays the role of a global risk. Interethnic relations have a large charge of tension. Under the influence of this factor, political-diplomatic tensions regularly arise in the region, though they have always been resolved so far. However, the nature of ethnic relations is such that sometimes even the slightest irritation from the outside can lead to regional conflict. Especially as the great powers have the most modern methods for this.

 Since the foundations of ethno-geographical conflicts were laid in Central Asia during the Soviet era, it is likely that this problem will be artificially fomented with a view to using it in the future. Those who created them probably know ways to turn them into regional conflicts. This once again confirms the fact that there is a risk factor in the basis of ethno-geographical relations in Central Asia.

As is evident from the above comparison, Uzbekistan has always been one of the parties to ethno-geographical conflicts in Central Asia. This has nothing to do with the essence of the statehood of this country. Simply, those who pre-planned it all sought to create a confusing situation by engaging the region's largest ethnic group in conflicts. So today, Uzbekistan is the main target among potentially conflicting areas.

This situation is particularly worrying against the backdrop of a great struggle for energy resources. For example, to implement its plans on energy and military security, the West, led by the United States, can take advantage of existing tensions in Central Asia to create a confrontation between Russia, China, India and Pakistan. In this case, chances are high that several states will enter the game. Such a situation can even turn Central Asia into an arena of military action. But it is the worst-case scenario, which, fortunately, is not relevant at the moment. Optimistic expectations are primarily due to the "resetting" of relations between the US and Russia, on which the future geopolitical situation in the Central Asian region largely depends.