AN HEIR TO TRADITION AND A HERALD OF REFORM

The parliamentary elections in the Land of the Rising Sun on 30 August culminated in the arrival of a political force which promises a new era in Japan. Meanwhile, the changes expected in Tokyo's domestic and foreign policies could have a significant influence on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region and enrich Japan's already unusual position in the global political and economic system with new colours.

"We are finally able to give the people of Japan a policy we believe in!"

The election was marked by a crushing defeat for Prime Minister Taro Aso's Liberal Democratic Party (LDPJ) which had been in power in Japan almost continuously since 1955. The winner was the Democratic Party (DPJ) which won 320 of the 480 seats in the lower house of the Japanese parliament. Its leader, Yukio Hatoyama will, as expected, be appointed Japan's next prime minister at an emergency session of the country's supreme legislative body.

The Liberal Democrats were defeated largely due to the blow dealt to Japan by the global crisis. The country's economy traditionally has a pronounced orientation towards exports, the bulk of them being expensive high-tech goods which suffered most from falling demand during the recession. The largest Japanese manufacturers and banks suffered record losses during the year-long crisis. Two months before the parliamentary elections, Taro Aso's government said that the economy had reached "rock bottom", but expressed confidence in the emerging recovery. Indeed, we soon began to observe a sharp increase in Japan's GDP. However, this fact did not particularly affect the living standards of ordinary Japanese, while the rate of unemployment reached its highest point since 1953, at 5.7 per cent (i.e. 3.5 million Japanese were out of work).

Speaking to the people of Japan on the eve of the elections, Hatoyama called for support, especially from those who, to varying degrees, felt most dispossessed of their socio-economic rights. "It is time to change the history of Japan. I need your support to turn Japan into a country where you will be the main players," said the DPJ leader. As leader of the victorious party, he told his compatriots: "We had a long way to go for victory, but today I feel that I am only at the starting line. Victory in the elections is not the final result. Only now are we finally able to give the people of Japan a policy we believe in!" 

Meanwhile, Yukio Hatoyama does not come from the common people. He is descended from a famous Japanese dynasty of statesmen. His great grandfather, Kazuo Hatoyama, was speaker of parliament from 1896-1897. His grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, headed the Japanese government from 1954-1956. His father, Iichiro Hatoyama, was first Deputy Minister of Finance and then Minister of Foreign Affairs in the 1970s.

 Yukio Hatoyama graduated from Tokyo University and, at Stanford (USA), he received a doctor's degree in engineering. For some time after returning to Japan in the early 1980's, Yukio Hatoyama worked as a teacher at a Tokyo university. He began his political career aged nearly 40, in the LDPJ, which was founded, incidentally, by his grandfather. In 1986, Hatoyama was elected to the Japanese Parliament but a few years later he left the party, explaining his decision by his belief that the LDPJ did not meet the aspirations of the people and Hatoyama's "ideals of a society of brotherhood and love". Having founded the DPJ, he began to advocate the transformation of a state whose main priority is the welfare of corporations, into a system that ensures social protection of each individual citizen. His election promises included the strengthening of state control over the economy and a rejection of so-called market fundamentalism, which, in his opinion, led to the current global crisis in many ways. The Democrats promise to increase spending on social guarantees for the population, reduce tax on the profits of small and medium-sized businesses from 18 to 11 per cent per year and to reduce the aging and shrinking of the population.

The future prime minister of Japan also promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 75 per cent of the 1990s figure by 2020, while his predecessor Taro Aso had promised to cut emissions by only 8 per cent. "With these plans, Japan will top the list of industrialized countries which have agreed to make concessions related to climate change," said Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Secretariat on Climate Change.

Yukio Hatoyama announced his intention to make corrections to the country's foreign policy. He sees one of its main tasks as achieving greater equality in relations with Japan's closest ally - the United States of America.

"We are moving from a unipolar world under US leadership towards an era of multipolarity"

"As a result of the failure of the Iraq war and the financial crisis, the era of American supremacy in the world can come to an end," Hatoyama wrote in his article "My Political Philosophy", published in the September issue of Japan's monthly magazine 'Voice'. The leader of the Japanese Democrats believes that "we are moving from a unipolar world under US leadership towards an era of multipolarity." He criticizes "US-style market fundamentalism, which is called globalization" and which has done much harm to Japan and the rest of the world, destroying the economic traditions of different countries and regions. Although Hatoyama says that the Japan-US security treaty remains the cornerstone of Japanese foreign policy, he calls for this policy to be diversified.

According to Hatoyama, it is necessary to revise the country's constitution, which, by the will of the victorious powers in World War II, forbids Japan to have armed forces. Japan, of course, has its own defensive armed forces, but its security is greatly ensured by the United States which has given the Land of the Rising Sun a place under its "nuclear umbrella" and pledged to protect it from external attack. For this reason, Japan hosts several US military bases, with about 50,000 soldiers. Hatoyama does not intend to deprive Japan of US protection, but proceeds from the belief that "in the sphere of national security, Japan should not remain subordinate to the United States. We must create a system of relations in which Japan can protect itself independently." 

A month before the victory of Hatoyama's party in the parliamentary elections, the American publication Project Syndicate, analyzing new accents emerging in relations between Washington and Tokyo, raised the question: "Will the US-Japan alliance survive?" It made the following points: "Next year we will mark 50 years of the Security Treaty between the United States and Japan. This agreement has been a fundamental factor for stability in East Asia for half a century. But, at the present time, Japan has entered a period of domestic political uncertainty, and nuclear tests and missile launches in North Korea only increase their anxiety. Will the Land of the Rising Sun give up its long-term decision and seek opportunities to acquire national nuclear deterrents? Does this mean that the existence of the US-Japan alliance is coming to an end?"

 Though Hatoyama's success raised squarely the issue of corrections in US-Japanese relations, it still does not suggest "the end of the alliance". Thus, the situation around North Korea encourages Washington and Tokyo to unite their efforts even more to deter the nuclear ambitions of that country. Neither do Hatoyama's integration plans regarding the future of the East Asian region represent a real danger to the US-Japanese alliance. Despite the DPJ's announced rapprochement with China, it is obvious that the growing power of China will remain a factor that stimulates the US and Japan to expand cooperation to curb the threat of all-out expansion by the Chinese economy. In addition, there is still the Russian factor as one of the determinants in the Asia-Pacific region, which also forces Tokyo to hold on to US assistance with security, in spite of its intended course towards self-identification and its rejection of American globalism.

The Kuril rebus

Japan and Russia have still not signed the peace treaty which was supposed to fix the principles of relations between the two countries after the Second World War. The stumbling block is the question of the southern Kuril Islands which formed part of the Soviet Union, which won the war and from which Russia inherited its territorial rights. Tokyo, however, does not accept the loss of the islands and there can be no talk of a peace treaty, of course, with such disputes.

 The sole basic document in Russo-Japanese relations is the Joint Declaration of 1956, which was signed by Yukio Hatoyama's grandfather, the then Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama. The latter's grandson declared a policy of establishing a close basis of trust with the leadership of Russia immediately after his party's victory in the elections. Moscow, in turn, responded to the friendly signals from Tokyo. The Russian Foreign Ministry acknowledged that as a result of parliamentary elections in Japan, there is hope for a settlement of the territorial issue. Russia also hoped Yukio Hatoyama would act like his grandfather in establishing relations with Russia.

Hatoyama's intention to intensify dialogue with Russia has really inspired new prospects in bilateral relations. After all, back in July they were on the verge of a very serious crisis, after the parliaments of the two countries exchanged harsh attacks. The upper chamber of the Japanese Parliament approved a bill recognizing the Southern Kurils as "traditional territories" of Japan. This decision provoked angry condemnation from Russia's legislators. So Hatoyama's words about the great potential for cooperation between Japan and Russia, and the failure to use it "is fraught with danger to the national interests of both countries", was a real boon for advocates of a breakthrough in relations between Moscow and Tokyo, on both sides of the Sea of Japan.

True, part of Russia's expert community fears that the new leadership of Japan, speaking about opportunities for improving bilateral relations, hopes that Russia, whose economic potential has significantly weakened during the global crisis, will eventually agree to surrender its interests in the Kuril issue. However, in contrast, there are opinions that the crisis will not affect Russo-Japanese dialogue because, firstly, for Moscow the Kurils are "a matter of principle", and secondly, Russia has not borrowed money from Japan (as it has, for example, from China, which allocated a loan of 25 billion dollars to Russia) and is not going to do so in the future. It is another matter that Russia proposes to expand economic cooperation with Japan, seeing this aspect of bilateral relations as a tool for dialogue and a subsequent mutually acceptable settlement of the territorial dispute. 

While on an official visit to Japan in May this year, the Russian prime minister noted Moscow's interest in the joint implementation with Japan of large projects in eastern Siberia, in particular, on the construction of the second stage of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline to supply Russian oil to the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, Putin invited Japanese companies to participate in preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. It is quite possible that these and other projects put forward by Russia, including, as Putin said, "for the further diversification of the regional presence of Japanese business", will become a reality under the new premier of the Land of the Rising Sun, Yukio Hatoyama.

East Asian Commonwealth

But the quintessence of Hatoyama's foreign policy doctrine will apparently be the establishment of an Asian economic and political union of countries, in which Japan, of course, will play a leading role. The idea of uniting Asian countries under the leadership of Japan was first proposed in the second half of the 19th century. 

After the outbreak of the war with China in 1937, the Japanese government led by Emperor Hirohito announced the start of a "new order in East Asia". This idea was put on the back burner after Japan's defeat in the Second World War. The new integration project, voiced by Yukio Hatoyama, stems from the democratic essence of the modern Japanese state and recognizes the "East Asian region, which has demonstrated its growing viability in economic power and strengthened mutual ties", as "the main sphere of Japan's existence" and as "Japan's national task".

Hatoyama proposes to develop close relations with China, which is gradually occupying an important place in the world economy. For the sake of a final historical reconciliation with China, which still remembers the Japanese occupation of 1937-1945, the new Japanese leader, unlike previous prime ministers, promised never to visit Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which serves as a symbol of Japanese militarism, where the souls of those who died fighting for the Emperor of Japan are worshipped. Hatoyama proposes to create an economic community around the two countries, which would act on the principle of collective security. The future prime minister of Japan calls for the introduction of a single Asian currency within the framework of regional integration "as a natural step for the economic development of the East Asian community". "Barriers to regional integration can be overcome, but only through greater integration," Hatoyama says. "The example of the European Union shows how regional integration can solve territorial disputes."

Hatoyama's proposal aroused great interest in China, although it is clear that that country will not agree to share regional leadership to the detriment of its own interests. China's Foreign Ministry expressed its intention to make joint efforts with Japan to further strengthen bilateral cooperation.

Will the ambitious leader of the Japanese Democrats be able to realize his far-reaching plans? It will become clear in the coming months.