MOMENT OF TRUTH APPROACHING

On August 31, the foreign ministries of Armenia and Turkey issued a joint statement on the launching of domestic consultations on two documents agreed during Swiss-brokered talks - a Protocol on establishing diplomatic ties between the two countries and a Protocol on developing bilateral relations. The statement said that the political consultations are expected to take six weeks, after which both protocols will be signed and submitted for ratification to the Turkish and Armenian parliaments. No later than two months after the protocol on developing bilateral relations goes into effect, a working group will be set up under the leadership of the two countries' foreign ministers to oversee the proper operation of the intergovernmental commission and its sub-commissions. The re-opening of the Turkish-Armenian border is expected at about the same time. 

The news has disturbed political circles and the public not only in Armenia and Turkey but also in Azerbaijan. When the adoption of a roadmap for normalizing Armenian-Turkish ties was announced this spring, the news sparked a terse reaction from Baku. The Azerbaijani government indicated that Turkey's steps are inconsistent with the essence of the strategic partnership between the two fraternal states. It is enough to recall that Ankara closed its border with Armenia in response to the Armenian military aggression and occupation of Azerbaijani territories and large-scale ethnic cleansing. Baku's tough response, widely supported by the public, both in Azerbaijan and Turkey, produced results. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Azerbaijan and gave public assurances that the Turkish-Armenian border would not be opened before progress is reached in settling the Upper Garabagh conflict. President Abdullah Gul and other Turkish officials made similar statements. 

In fact, the Turkish-Armenian negotiating process faced a roadblock pending good news from the OSCE Minsk Group, which is dealing with the Garabagh settlement. This entangled Yerevan's plans, as Armenia's President Serzh Sarkisian and Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian, having embarked on a diplomatic game with Ankara, sought to secure an additional advantage for themselves in the conflict settlement process. They hoped that Azerbaijan, believing itself to have been "betrayed" by Turkey, would lose ground and begin making mistakes, allowing Yerevan to make final moves in its favour in its negotiating game dubbed the "Madrid principles."

But Yerevan did not succeed and, evidently, this is not going to happen. Sarkisian's team now faces the mind-boggling task of ensuring that it does not fail on the world stage as a non-constructive party and, simultaneously, Armenia has to avoid pressure and criticism at home. The woes of the incumbent regime in Armenia are aggravated by its having to manoeuvre amidst a severe economic crunch and an acute reliance on the helping hands of foreign financial donors. 

If we get to the bottom of the matter, it is clear that, even in the best case-scenario for Armenia, at least two to three months will go by before the afore-mentioned protocols begin to be enforced. By that time, the situation regarding the Minsk Group's proposals will become clear: if the parties come to an agreement, the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations will proceed according to the agreed timetable. But if Armenia shows an unwillingness to vacate the occupied Azerbaijani territories, one could expect such an enormous escalation of tension on the frontline that normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations will be out of the question altogether. 

Turkish leaders understand this, as well. According to the Radical newspaper, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made clear during recent phone conversations with his US, French and Russian counterparts that the Turkish parliament will not endorse the protocols on mending ties with Armenia until advances are achieved in the resolution of the Garabagh conflict. Besides, it cannot be ruled out that, with a perceived deadlock in the Minsk Group-brokered negotiating process, Turkey would push for a debate at the United Nations on Armenia's failure to honour standing UN Security Council resolutions, and call for deadlines to be set and sanctions imposed. This hint was dropped by Novruz Mammadov, head of the Azerbaijan Presidential Administration international relations department, who also said that Azerbaijan believes Turkish leaders will deliver on their promises. 

Ankara regularly informs Azerbaijan about the course of the Turkish-Armenian dialogue, reiterating its previous assurances to Baku. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan have held a detailed discussion on the issue. The foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Turkey have also had a phone conversation, during which the Turkish minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, assured his counterpart, Elmar Mammad-yarov, that his country would never take steps that could potentially harm Azerbaijan. Mammadyarov, for his part, said the Azerbaijani side is not concerned over the latest rapprochement in Turkish-Armenian relations. 

"We believe that Turkey's prime minister and foreign minister will keep the promise given to the Azerbaijani people: that the border will not open without the liberation of the occupied territories," said Mammadyarov. 

Baku is relying not only on the assurances of the Gul and Erdogan administration, but also on Turkish political circles and the general public. It is quite natural that the opposition Republican People's Party and National Action Party, which command large factions in the Turkish parliament, have severely criticized the protocols agreed with Armenia. Their criticism is primarily due to the fact that the agreements reached are not linked to the pullout of the Armenian armed forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. 

The process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian relations may be derailed by the Armenians themselves. Regardless of what the protocols in the making say, they are sticking to their claims against Turkey in relation to the so-called 1915 genocide, both financial and territorial. 

Ethnic hostility between Turks and Armenians remains high and continues to be nurtured both in Armenia and within Armenian communities abroad. The Dashnaksutyun and Heritage parties, represented in the Armenian parliament, are vehemently opposed to ratifying the protocols on mending ties. The latter are calling for a referendum to determine whether or not the protocols should be approved, in which citizens would also vote on the issue of trusting their president as the person responsible for the country's foreign policy. The Dashnaks, for their part, have threatened to launch mass protests. Considering the party's record of staging acts of terror, its covert links to Armenia's former president, Robert Kocharian, new assassinations, explosions and other bloody acts, many of which have already gone down in contemporary Armenian history, cannot be ruled out. 

Only the opposition Armenian National Congress, headed by the former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, does not object to the normalization of ties with Turkey, but this bloc is unlikely to rise to the defence of the Sarkisian administration either. 

In addition to the above-mentioned factors, there are more profound reasons that make the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations without a simultaneous normalization of Armenia-Azerbaijan ties a misalliance with no prospects. Turkish-Armenian trade turnover is only $80-100 million, 15 to 20 times less than that between Azerbaijan and Turkey and, considering that the Armenian economy is tiny, it is unlikely to grow significantly even after the proposed opening of the border. In the situation that Georgia-Russia and Armenia-Azerbaijan borders remain shut, Armenia will not be able to become a transit state and join large-scale regional projects. Also, the fragile seeds of normalization in Turkish-Armenian relations will succumb to the possibility of fresh hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan in conditions of a "frozen" Garabagh conflict. 

Only a simultaneous solution of outstanding problems represents a chance of ensuring fruitful and sustainable results, though this is not mentioned in the Turkish-Armenian protocols. 

Thus, the moment of truth is approaching in the complicated relations of the Azerbaijan-Turkey-Armenia triangle. Yerevan's hopes for a Baku fall out with Ankara have been shattered. Azerbaijan has again acted calmly and confidently, and given no reason for ill-wishers of its strategic partnership with Turkey to rejoice. The propaganda provocations that the Armenians are trying to stage and the Russian media outlets they are sponsoring (the REGNIUM news agency stands out particularly in this respect) are yielding no fruit and causing well-informed people to smile.  

At the same time, euphoric schemes are being drawn up to redirect pipeline and transport projects from Georgia and Azerbaijan (?!) to Iran, Turkey and Armenia. But these schemes, too, prove to be unfeasible just with a look at a map of the region.  

The lobbying efforts of Armenians and their benefactors mislead only the Armenians themselves. Political schemes and moves once imagined to be crafty and promising begin to fall apart once faced with reality, because they are as shifting as sand and do not have a realistic demographic or economic basis. 

It comes as no surprise that President Serzh Sarkisian senses his failure and is sending contradictory signals to his Turkish counterparts. Recently, Sarkisian again questioned his planned visit to Turkey, where he is to attend a return soccer match of the two countries' national teams. Prime Minister Erdogan simply replied that if the Armenian leader does not pay the visit, nothing out-of-the-ordinary will happen and that Yerevan will merely demonstrate that it is not ready for real normalization of its relations with Ankara. 

Considering the welcoming messages from superpowers, as well as from NATO, the European Union and the Council of Europe regarding the anticipated normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, it is important that the sides avoid appearing non-constructive and retain international backing.