MIDDLE EAST CROSSROADS

The Middle East settlement is at a new crossroads. With a chance of a major breakthrough, as a result of mediation by President Barack Obama, the peace process in the Holy Land may result, however, in ultimate collapse.

Breakthrough points and a 9 month plan

Palestinian-Israeli dialogue stalled after the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip last winter. The new American administration is trying to ease the Middle East settlement out of impasse, putting forward a plan to create "two states". But the breakthrough points include the ending of Israeli expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Arab recognition of Israel.

A series of important meetings was held recently, and the outcome leaves hope for some progress in Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, which may resume in the very near future. Barack Obama expressed such a hope after his meeting with Egyptian President Husni Mubarak at the White House. Obama did not conceal his pleasure at the probability that Israel and Palestine would soon return to the negotiating table. 

Meanwhile, the existence of such a prospect was also confirmed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas. It is likely that a meeting between them will be held on the sidelines of a UN General Assembly session in September. However, the leaderships of both Israel and Palestine have no illusions about the prospects. For example, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman regards as "unrealistic" the White House's desire to achieve a breakthrough in the peace settlement and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. He has an apparently compelling reason for such a belief, as confirmed by the position of Benjamin Netanyahu, who recently toured Europe and met George Mitchell, US special envoy to the Middle East. Despite Western pressure, the Israeli prime minister did not agree to halt the establishment of Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories, which is an essential step before the leadership of the Palestinian Authority can resume negotiations. Netanyahu seems to be inclined to block the construction of new settlements, but refuses to suspend the ongoing construction and expansion of existing settlements, saying that this is necessary, due to the natural demographic growth of the Jewish population. In this regard, information was leaked that Netanyahu had presented to Washington and European leaders a new Israeli initiative regarding construction in Judea and Samaria. Under this plan, Israel will agree to a temporary freeze on construction in the settlements for a period of 9 months. However, the construction of 2,500 housing units in Judea and Samaria should be continued and the construction of community centres, clinics, schools and kindergartens in the settlements will be carried out with special permission from the American administration. Instead, the United States expressed their willingness to remove East Jerusalem from the list of places where construction should be stopped. Special envoy Mitchell made it clear that the Barack Obama administration does not regard this as permission to construct settlements, but is ready to make concessions for the sake of advancing the peace process. Netanyahu, meanwhile, set a condition that, if during these 9 months the United States is not able to persuade Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority to normalize relations with Israel, the latter will consider itself free from the commitments given to them.

If we believe this information, the circle thus closes. The West has failed to secure Tel Aviv's explicit consent to suspend the construction of illegal settlements in the Palestinian territories and, hence, Washington's chances of persuading the Arabs to recognize Israel have been, in fact, reduced to a minimum. Moreover, we should not forget that the Israelis agree to recognize a Palestinian state only if it is demilitarized and recognizes Israel as a state of the Jewish people. These conditions, especially the second one, are not acceptable to the Arabs, who refuse to consider Israel as a state for Jews alone, not to mention the fact that there is still the issue of Jerusalem - the holy city which Jews and Palestinians both revere as their capital.

Contradictions seem even more intractable in the foreseeable future, given the rise to power of the National Liberation Movement of Palestine (Fatah), the so-called "the youth wing" adhering to a radical approach to the Middle East settlement. This wing, in particular, criticizes the of Mahmud Abbas circle for rejecting the use of force in the struggle against Israel. A recent congress of Fatah declared adherence to the programme developed by Yasir Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization, which sets out provisions such as the inalienable right of Palestinians not only to the eastern (Arab), but also to the western (Jewish) section of Jerusalem, a refusal to recognize Israel as a Jewish state and the right to conduct armed struggle against the Israelis.

Iran is "in business" again

Yet, potentially, there is a factor that could break the ice in the disrupted Arab-Israeli dialogue, although the consequences of bringing it into effect may be most unpredictable, not only for the Middle East but for the whole world.

The Western media explains Barack Obama's confidence in the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks by the fact that Washington and Tel Aviv have managed to agree on a stricter policy towards Iran. In any case, the United States has promised such in response to an expected softening of Israel's policy on the settlements. Indeed, the US and its closest European allies - Britain, France and Germany - plan to ensure that the UN Security Council applies sanctions to Iran's oil and gas industry, which could, experts believe, paralyze the economy of that country. The logic according to which Israel will make this political exchange is that Iran is a direct threat to its existence, whereas concessions on the question of settlements will not have fatal consequences for the Jewish state.

During talks with the Israeli prime minister, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed their willingness to adopt a tougher policy towards Iran. Brown clearly stated that "Iran must abandon nuclear weapons" as the consequences for Iran will be most serious if it fails to comply with this requirement. Brown even said that "he insists on preserving freedom of action against Iran if it still dares to oppose the decisions of the international community". Angela Merkel, for her part, also threatened Iran with new sanctions if it does not yield to international pressure and does not halt its nuclear programme. The possibility of tightening sanctions against Tehran was also supported by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

It is believed that the prospects of such an agreement on Iran between Israel and the West were discussed during the London meeting between Netanyahu and Mitchell. It is also quite possible that the deal, if it is concluded, will be unveiled at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in late September. Meanwhile, the positions of Israel and a number of leading Arab countries may become closer, based on anti-Iranian sentiment, as the latter are unsettled by the expansion of Tehran's influence in the region. There are even reports that a coalition of Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, is secretly discussing a counter to the common Iranian threat with Israel. In this context, it is interesting that Arab countries such as Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Morocco have expressed their willingness to normalize relations with Israel.

Nor should we ignore a fact which indicates the possibility of Netanyahu softening his position, although he is considered to be one of the toughest Israeli politicians on the Palestinian question. Israel's prime minister demanded an explanation from his deputy, Minister for Strategic Planning Moshe Ya'alon, who criticized, without permission, the United States for demanding an end to the construction of Jewish settlements. And this is despite Netanyahu's own statements that "we have been building in Jerusalem for 3,000 years already" and that Israel needs more housing to support the growth of its population.

Thus, something like relative progress may be detected in the Middle East settlement. It is possible that the same Netanyahu was sincere when he said, at a joint press conference with Gordon Brown, that "the progress of the negotiations on the Middle East will confuse cynics and surprise the world".