"JUDGE NOT LEST YE BE JUDGED"

Perhaps, the "throne" on which "the leaders of the Turkmen people" are sitting has some unusual energy - otherwise it is difficult to explain the original thoughts that occur to the presidents of our Caspian neighbour. The extravagance of the late Saparmurat Niyazov, who renamed the months of the year and forced all citizens of his country to learn his "Ruhnama" by heart and culpable officials to crawl on their knees and so on, are still fresh in our memory. His successor, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov seemed to be well-liked by everyone at first, as he mended relations with his neighbours and the superpowers and showed some inclination towards democratic values. Then suddenly, he too was overwhelmed by the same "energy" and decided to deal personally with the problem of delimiting the Caspian Sea - in favour of Turkmenistan, of course. According to the Turkmen president's plan, apart from the Caspian Kapaz deposit (Serdar in Turkmen interpretation), his country should also take over the well-known structures Azari and Ciraq, currently being developed by a consortium of companies, based on the "Contract of the Century" which they signed with Azerbaijan in 1994. Berdymuhammedov, as all major media of the world have already reported, has pledged to take action against Azerbaijan in the International Court of Arbitration. In May, the same Berdymuhammedov displayed only friendliness towards our country during a visit to Baku...

A surprise statement

Discussions between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan on several adjacent Caspian deposits did not begin today or yesterday. It all depends on the division of the Caspian Sea into national sectors and this story originates with the collapse of the Soviet Union and continues to this day. A fair number of high-level summits, meetings of working groups etc. have been held, many articles have been written and analyses made; there are research materials, but things remain as they were.

In June alone, Azerbaijani and Turkmen working groups held a meeting on the subject, and no disputatious statements were made there. Suddenly, in July, Berdymuhammedov instructed the foreign minister to engage international experts to examine the legality of Azerbaijan's claims to "disputed" offshore deposits in the Caspian region and then to submit documents to the International Court of Arbitration. "The current situation hampers the full development of the natural resources on the Turkmen shelf of the Caspian Sea, hinders the implementation of large-scale programmes for the economic development of the region and the preservation of ecological security in the sea and on the coast," said President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov.

According to the president, the exploration and development of mutually acceptable solutions in this area is largely hampered by the particular position of Azerbaijan, which unilaterally began developing the disputed Omar and Osman (Azerbaijani Azari and Ciraq) oil and gas fields, and by its claims concerning the affiliation of the Serdar (Kapaz) field.

I must say that on the Kapaz (Serdar) field mentioned in the Azerbaijani-Turkmen Caspian dispute, our side initially followed a more moderate position - it is actually located on the border between the two sectors of the Caspian Sea. Although we should note that the structure was discovered by Azerbaijani geologists in Soviet times. According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Industry and Energy, the recoverable resources of the Kapaz field total 50 million tonnes of oil. Even in Soviet times, it was called "intermediate", as it was on the median line between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Despite this, Azerbaijan has repeatedly suggested the joint development of the field to Turkmenistan. Baku is sure that Turkmenistan will benefit from joint development of the Kapaz field with Azerbaijan. First of all, this is due to the presence of a strong infrastructure for construction and for the transportation of hydrocarbon reserves. Azerbaijan has implemented a number of very large offshore oil and gas projects, including the construction of platforms for oil and gas production in the sea. The country has special companies with the necessary equipment and with staff qualified and experienced in the construction of such facilities. In Turkmenistan, there is no such infrastructure. In addition, Azerbaijan has a strong transport infrastructure: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline delivers oil to the Mediterranean Sea. There are the Baku-Supsa and Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline routes, as well as the possibility of delivering oil by rail to the Black Sea ports of Batumi and Kulevi in Georgia. In addition, Azerbaijan has the South Caucasus gas pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum), seen as an integral part of the Nabucco gas pipeline, which will deliver gas to Europe.

With regard to Azari and Ciraq, even the former "Turkmenbashi" understood full well that, after 1994, there was no point in hoping to take them over, especially as extraction from the oil fields had already begun and by the end of the court hearings between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan it might have ended. In this regard, Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Xalaf Xalafov said that prior to the signing of the "Contract of the Century" in the early 1990s, Azerbaijan had conducted the necessary studies on the development of the fields, including their geographical, physical and legal aspects. "We conducted all the research necessary to justify our position and rights," Xalafov said. He said that Azerbaijan intends to defend its interests in the matter of developing oil fields in the Caspian Sea by all available means, including diplomatic ones. "With regard to judicial procedures, if the need arises, we are ready to consider them," said Xalafov.

Economists agree with him. For example, the head of the Public Finance Monitoring Centre (PFMC), Inqilab Ahmadov, believes that even if the government of Turkmenistan takes Azerbaijan to court, no decision that would undermine the rights of Azerbaijan will be adopted. "This is not logical and does not follow from what we have seen from the Turkmen leadership in the last year and a half. It is also unfounded and not feasible in terms of international law, because work to determine the status of the Caspian is going on in parallel," said Ahmadov.

"I did not expect that Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov would repeat the mistakes of his predecessor. Unfortunately, he has gone along the same route. And that way leads nowhere," said Rustam Mammadov, professor and expert on Caspian issues. Noting that such a move would not bring any benefit, the expert pointed out that, in this way, Turkmenistan will put an end to negotiations on the Caspian Sea: "They threaten us with the International Court of Arbitration. Let them go to court if they can. I do not see any danger in that. This issue is clearly in favour of Azerbaijan. It can be of benefit to Azerbaijan."

So to be or not to be?

The fact that this question is hanging in the air does not suit any of the five states: at stake are large oil deposits whose development is being delayed by disagreements. Let's just recall Araz-Alov-Sarq, claimed by both Azerbaijan and Iran. Our country had even signed a contract on the development of these structures with BP, ExxonMobil and Statoil, but after the "memorable" flights by Iranian military aircraft over the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, the project had to be frozen. Is this what the Turkmen side is striving for, by insisting on court hearings on Azari and Ciraq (Omar and Osman)? But why put a spoke in the wheel when relations between the two countries had begun to improve and when the EU sees both countries as strategically important suppliers for the Nabucco gas pipeline? The expert Ahmadov believes that the only negative consequence may be a temporary freeze in negotiations, including on the Nabucco project. Maybe this is the purpose of this incomprehensible step by the Turkmen leader, who often falls under the influence of third parties - in this way he is trying to manoeuvre between them, not denying anyone friendship and putting Azerbaijan at risk.

Meanwhile, many experts believe that, in this case, the Turkmen side has made a very crude calculation and the international community will simply not tolerate any court hearings between the two Caspian states.

"The differences between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan concerning the border deposits in the Caspian should be resolved not in an international arbitration court, but via international mediation," says Kaan Nazli, an analyst on Eastern Europe and the Caspian region with the American Medley Global Advisors LLC. "The most successful mediator in this matter could be Turkey, because of its close historical, ethnic, cultural and political ties with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan." According to the analyst, if the differences between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan deepen, the realization of trans-Caspian projects will be discontinued. "This is contrary to the interests of Turkey and the EU," said Nazli. Thus this issue can be resolved only through mutual dialogue, with the participation of Turkey and, if necessary, the process of mediation can be joined by the European Union as well. "Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are very important in terms of regional energy security and diversification," noted Nazli.

So, in any case, Turkmenistan has put itself in a very awkward position - if the Turkmen president gives up arbitration, he will present himself as a lightweight politician and head of state, and if he goes to court, he will cause resentment in Europe and the United States, not to mention discord with Azerbaijan. Is this game worth the candle?