UNITY IN DIVERSITY

The G8 (USA, Britain, Russia, France, Japan, Germany, Canada, Italy) summit in the Italian town of L`Aquila will go down in history not only as the most ascetic, but also the most pessimistic for the future of the organization.

G20 or G14?

The hesitant suggestions of recent years that the G8 is "viewed less as a supranational government of sorts and increasingly frequently resorts to cooperation with and advice from other countries", and agreements to hold regular meetings between G8 leaders and those of Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa (the world's most powerful developing economies, which are sometimes referred to as the G5 by analogy with the G8), have, in 2009, escalated into open demands for "expansion."

A number of politicians, in particular German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are certain that after the G20 format is developed, the ability to reach really effective decisions will be transferred to the new group.  This development in large part stems from the fact that, with the onset of the global economic crisis, the eight leading developed democracies began to lose their positions of leadership in the world.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in an interview with Le Monde that the "economy needs international forums more representative" than the G8.  The Brazilian leader specifically stressed the value of the measures adopted by the G20 in London.  "The G20 is a more significant and representative forum than the G8 and, therefore, it can deal better with the current economic crisis," da Silva said.

It should be noted that, effectively, representatives of up to 30 countries attended some of the events in L`Aquila (the G5, African countries, representatives of international organizations - the UN, IMF, World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the  International Economic Association).

However, talk began later about a G14 format (G8+G5+Egypt as an Arab, African and Muslim country), which would now set the pitch for international economic policy.  "World leadership should develop, how can we not involve a country like India with a population of 1 billion in the decision making process?  We will try to merge the two groups, the G8 and G5 plus Egypt, and we should do this as quickly as possible, said French President Nicolas Sarkozy.  "In my opinion, a G14 might become one of the main global forces able to effectively address the problems which governments of all countries are facing," said Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

US President Barack Obama also supports G8 enlargement.  It is not a "club of the chosen" any longer, and if it was the world economic crisis which encouraged the G8 leaders to be more open, then the crisis also seems to have its positive aspects.  At the same time, there is an opposing opinion - those who want to keep the G8 say, in support of their position, that a large number of participants and openness do not guarantee good results.  The United Nations being a good example.

Do not offend journalists!

The level of political trust in the G8 leaders has played some role in hopes for its effectiveness, although in this respect, only Barack Obama has boasting rights, and it has been said that he effectively assumed leadership of the L`Aquila summit.  Upon completion of the forum, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was thanked by his colleagues for his hospitality and good organization of the summit, as would be expected of polite persons, although there was a lot of talk earlier that the summit had not been at all well organized.

The idea to organize a summit in an earthquake-damaged town to draw attention to its problems seemed noble and novel, of course, but also pessimistic from the outset.  And Berlusconi made a big mistake when he deprived journalists covering the event of comfort.  The media personnel stayed in a suburb (it took them 4-5 hours to get to the venue and back) in conditions which journalists themselves described as "close to Spartan" - there were no TV sets, refrigerators or even airconditioners in the rooms.  As a result, a number of the Western media even suggested the exclusion of a disorganized Italy from the G8, to be replaced by Spain.

The scandal in which Silvio Berlusconi found himself embroiled also played its role - many people say that he behaves more like a showman than a serious politician.  The Italian prime minister's approval rating has plummeted after publication by the local press of reports of his participation in a party to celebrate a certain Noemi Letizia's 18th birthday and after photographs of half-naked girls at the prime minister's villas in Rome and Sardinia were published.  Later, reports appeared that girls had received "remuneration" for their "appearances" at the events.  As a result, Veronica Lario, the wife of the 72-year-old politician, filed for divorce.  Whether or not these were intrigues by Berlusconi's political or business rivals, the scandal had a major effect on attitudes toward the prime minister.  And also on the summit.

The presidents and heads of states, who stayed in barracks and in the Financial Guard School building in L`Aquila, were also deprived of "luxuries," although, of course, there were air conditioners.  Interestingly, every building was equipped with a seismic activity indicator - there are still aftershocks in the vicinity of L`Aquila.

However, all this uncertainty and asceticism might just have been a profound hint that the same is happening to the global economy.

We'll see in September...

G8 leaders have not been able to define the current phase of the crisis or decide whether we have already hit the bottom, so they tried to send a positive signal, in particular that the crisis might be over soon, after all.  However, despite "some signs of stabilization," economic prospects were decreed to be unclear and risk-prone, which is why it was decided that it would be premature to drop incentive packages.

The G8 leaders agreed that there is a need to ensure transparency of financial institutions and to confront protectionism, and promised to keep their markets open and free for investment and trade.  In addition, it was decided to refrain from competitive devaluations of currencies.

However, all the serious decisions on the world economy were postponed until the G20 summit, which will be held in Pittsburg in September, and this seems to be quite significant.

Naturally, the creation of a reserve currency was touched upon.  Emphasis was placed on this issue at the final news conference of the summit by one of the most active supporters of the idea, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev:  "We always discuss the question of a new group of reserve currencies, including the use of the rouble in this capacity, and the issue of a supranational currency."

The Russian leader showed journalists a "test sample" of the single currency (united future world currency), a coin with the motto 'Unity in Diversity', which, according to Medvedev, is a symbol of the intention to address such issues by combining efforts.  "Something of this type will probably be developed in the future," Medvedev said.

All the aforementioned leads to one conclusion:  world leaders have not yet made up their mind about the format for addressing the various economic issues.  Russia itself is an example; a member of the G8, it sometimes displays an entirely different mood when talking to its BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) partners.

In the mean time, the G8 countries also reached agreement on a fair price for oil, of $70-80 per barrel.  News agencies reported that on the first day of the summit in L`Aquila, on 8 July, the price of oil was $61 per barrel.

Incidentally, when oil reached $140 in summer 2008, G8 leaders were very worried about the rising price of energy.  The head of Gazprom predicted back then that "by late 2008, natural gas in Europe will cost about $500 per 1,000 cubic metres," and "if international oil goes above $250 per barrel, natural gas might cost as much as $1,000 per 1,000 cubic metres."  However, a different scenario unfolded - the price collapsed to below $40 per barrel by the winter.

Year after year

Overall, however, with the exception of issues relating to the economic crisis, the G8 summit agenda was a traditional one: aid to Africa, combatting terrorism, global warming, nuclear non-proliferation, Iran's nuclear programme, nuclear tests and missile launches in North Korea.

All of this creates a strange mood:  after all, judging by the G8 summit's agenda, nothing changes in the world, year after year.  Why, then, are all these expensive forums organized?  Is their sole purpose to adopt the latest set of declarations and intents?

Will Pyongyang really worry about the G8 countries' condemnation of the nuclear tests and missile launches which took place in violation of UN Security Council sanctions (yet another very "effective" instrument of international politics)?  The same question applies to Iran, which once again was generously granted "time to think" - again until the beginning of the G20 summit.  "If there is no progress by then, we will be forced to make decisions," French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised on behalf of his opposite numbers.  Western leaders have issued these kinds of ultimatums many times now, but Iranians are already used to quipping sarcastically and going about business as usual.  Eventually, the game of expressions of "concern" by the international community will become tiresome.

The situation is very similar with the G8 countries' position on the "political protests which broke out in Iran after the presidential elections".  Tehran was familiar with this position before L`Aquila, and had formed its own opinion long ago.

On the other hand, how can a common decision be reached if the USA and Russia have different views on the Islamic republic?  Iran is part of the large-scale geopolitical games played by Moscow and Washington with different accents and components - from the situation in the Near East to energy projects in the Caspian region and US plans to deploy elements of its missile defence system in Eastern Europe.  And the G8 has nothing to do with these situations.

The Times noted that it is pointless to talk about the need for negotiations with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and that only sanctions and tough diplomacy will work.  But, judging by recent statements from US politicians, they are not yet decided about what to do about Tehran:  to continue the course towards dialogue without preliminary conditions, or to introduce very stiff sanctions and give Israel the green light to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

The situation surrounding Africa is equally unclear: financial aid is allocated regularly, but nothing changes for the better.  While the powers that be are busy talking, and the journalists who listen to them feel resentful because of the absence of air conditioners in their rooms, children are dying terrible deaths from hunger and disease on that continent in the 21st century.  Of course, the words are high-flown, and there are a huge number of international humanitarian organizations trying to help the peoples of Africa.  But it is all a drop in the ocean.  The international community cannot even find effective methods to combat Somali pirates, deploying destroyers, the pride of the navies of the world's leading countries, against these modern-day buccaneers who use Kalashnikov assault rifles and motorboats.

Incidentally, Romano Prodi, chairman of the UN Commission for Peacekeeping in Africa and former Italian prime minister, noted that addressing the problem of Africa is impossible without the greater involvement of African institutions such as the African Union and various regional organizations.  However, Prodi added at the 18 March meeting of the UN Security Council, that not all the leading countries demonstrated a desire to support the UN Commission's call to increase the African Union's role in decision-making processes.

"I feel that, sad as this might sound, this kind of resistance brings back memories of colonialist behaviour, which is bad for the future of Africa and for the world at large," concluded the chairman of the UN Commission.

It is worth noting here that a decision was reached in L`Aquila to support the Food Security Initiative and to allocate $20 million, which will be distributed among the planet's poorest countries to help their local agricultural sectors.

And on the issue of combatting climate change, we should give the G8 its due:  some progress has been made here, although not all experts welcome it.  Spurred by the imminent expiry of the Kyoto Protocol, the G8 countries decided to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by 2050.  This is expected to prevent the atmosphere from warming by more than 2 degrees centigrade over the next 40 years.  British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the "historic" decision paved the way for an "international conference on climate change in Copenhagen in December."

The details of the financial arrangements for all this have not been disclosed, and nothing was said about what to do about the positions of China and India, which are among the largest polluters of the atmosphere.  Beijing and Delhi say in support of their position that they have to develop their industry, that Western countries have already been through this stage and now talk from different positions.

Incidentally, Russia has already said that it is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of its G8 partners on this issue.  Canada too is not overly enthusiastic.

The only good news is that the new US president, Barack Obama, pays much greater attention to environmental problems than did his predecessor, George Bush.  We can only hope that this process will slowly ease the deadlock and that countries will finally stop the endless haggling and start acting in the near future, not in the distant future "until 2050").  After all, many experts predict that the consequences of global warming could be much more detrimental to mankind than the threat of terrorism.

It is interesting what Prince Charles had to say on this issue - he was cited by The Independent.  In the opinion of the heir to the British throne, "the world is on the verge of economic and environmental catastrophe because of capitalism and the consumerist society."  Prince Charles noted that, in his opinion, there are only about 8 years left to save the planet from an "irreversible collapse of the ecosystem."  Most prominent environmentalists are among Prince Charles's advisors.

Yet another positive aspect of the summit was the G8 decision to support Barack Obama's proposal to hold a summit on nuclear security in Washington in March 2010.  The problem of liquidating the "black market" of fissile materials and specialized equipment, the detection of the traffic of these products and their interception will be discussed.  The G8 also called for the prompt launch of international negotiations to prepare a treaty banning the production of fissile materials.

For Azerbaijan, the most important development was that in L`Aquila the presidents of the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, the USA, Russia and France, signed a statement on Karabakh regulation.  "We instruct our mediators to submit a renewed version of the 2007 Madrid document to the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents.  The main principles convey the spirit of reasonable compromise which was based on the Helsinki Act.  These are the principles of abstaining from the use of armed force, territorial integrity, equality and the self-determination of peoples.  Approval of these main principles in Armenia and Azerbaijan will make it possible to achieve comprehensive regulation to promote peace, stability and prosperity for both Armenia and Azerbaijan.  We urge the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to settle the differences remaining between them and finally agree on these main principles, which will be incorporated in a plan for the comprehensive regulation of the conflict," reads the joint statement by the three presidents.  The fact that the Karabakh problem was remembered in Italy proves that the international community keeps it in focus and inspires hope that the conflict will be resolved in the near future.

Analysts predict that the summit in L`Aquila might be the last G8 summit.  However, at least on the first few occasions, the G8 will probably stand out, as part of both the G14 and the G20.  But it is certain that the view of world problems will broaden and make an additional contribution to global security.  The world financial crisis has yet another positive aspect.  It has demonstrated that no matter how nations might be separated and what alliances they might form, we are all in the same boat.