SOMETHING OF A "RESET"…

Barack Obama made his first visit to Russia as US president on 6-7 July. The visit was considered very important as misunderstanding and mistrust had built up in the US-Russian relationship and opinions sharply diverged on many global and regional political issues, primarily, in the sensitive area of strategic security. After last August's conflict in Georgia analysts began to talk of the threat of practically a new "cold war". Since the Kremlin and White House had new young occupants it was a key objective for both sides to clear away the blockage in bilateral relations. 

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton got the ball rolling when she gave her Russian counterpart in Washington a symbolic reset button, which Barack Obama had called to be pressed during his election campaign. The US and Russian leaders had a getting-to-know-you meeting and conversation at the G20 summit in London which sketched the outline of issues to be discussed in Moscow during Obama's July visit. 

A special feature of the relationship between the USA and the Russian Federation is that it is practically entirely concentrated on security issues and geostrategic problems. Unlike the relationship between Russia and the European Union or the USA and China, the USA and Russian Federation are not linked by any significant trade and economic, cultural and scientific ties. The media noted that US attention towards Russia is falling and if it were not for the problems of Iran's and North Korea's nuclear ambitions and the need to get Moscow's help on the transit of cargo to Afghanistan, then Washington would not really have anything to discuss with the former superpower. Recently, Russia, for its part, has noticeably upped its anti-American attitude, and Moscow's direct demands of the USA can be boiled down to three theses, according to authoritative Russian analyst Dmitriy Trenin: keep out of our back yard (i.e. the post-Soviet area); don't build a global anti-missile system (especially not under our noses); and respect us as a great power.

As was to be expected, Barack Obama's visit did not overcome all the problems that had built up between the two sides. The American leader held talks with President Dmitriy Medvedev, met the influential Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, and received representatives of the Russian opposition and public. The sides showered one another with pleasantries. The atmosphere of the visit was positive and constructive. The signing of a joint statement by the Russian Federation and US presidents can be seen as one of the achievements of the visit. The statement says: "Our countries are intensifying their search for optimum ways of strengthening strategic relations on the basis of mutual respect and interests. We have instructed our experts to work together to analyse the ballistic missile challenges of the 21st century and to prepare appropriate recommendations, giving priority to the use of political and diplomatic methods."

The presidents agreed figures on further reductions in strategic offensive weapons. The number of nuclear warheads could be more than halved (START 1 specifies a figure of 6,000 nuclear warheads but the figure in the current Russian-US negotiations is 1,675). The launch vehicles are also being significantly reduced: at the summit the presidents fixed a number of 1,100 while in START 1 it was 1,600 units. Barack Obama at one time proposed lower ceilings for nuclear warheads but came up against a refusal from Moscow.

Russian negotiators continue to try to link the issue of reducing strategic weapons with US plans to base missile defence systems in Eastern Europe. The American side for its part is ready to take Moscow's concern into account only in the context of developing a united approach to restraining Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Speaking at the Russian School of Economics, Barack Obama said: "I know Russia opposes the planned configuration for missile defence in Europe. And my administration is reviewing these plans to enhance the security of America, Europe and the world. And I've made it clear that this system is directed at preventing a potential attack from Iran. It has nothing to do with Russia. In fact, I want to work together with Russia on a missile defence architecture that makes us all safer. But if the threat from Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme is eliminated, the driving force for missile defence in Europe will be eliminated, and that is in our mutual interests." 

It has not yet been possible to bring the interests of the sides under one common umbrella. However, reports were leaked to the media that the sides had agreed to share their intelligence information on Iran's nuclear missile programme, to carry out a joint assessment and analysis of real threats and then to draw up an action plan which could include a missile defence system using Qabala and Armavir radar stations and anti-missile installations in Turkey and Iraq. If these plans come to fruition, then they will affect Azerbaijan's interests.

An agreement was also reached on Moscow allowing the USA transit across its territory to Afghanistan of American military hardware and personnel, reserving the right to inspection if necessary. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's significance in Afghan transit is hardly likely to decrease, as the international coalition, and primarily the USA, intends to substantially expand the scope of their operations in Afghanistan.

Russian analysts say that, compared with the George Bush team, Obama's administration has reduced activity in the post-Soviet area which is bound to please Moscow. This is not a review of policy but a realistic assessment of current capabilities. But no American administration will agree to the Kremlin's desire for special rights to neighbouring territories. In this regard Barack Obama clearly and unambiguously expressed US support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia. Saakashvili announced that the US president had thereby saved Georgia from a new invasion of Russian troops.

The Western media were especially interested in how Barack Obama would conduct dialogue and relationships with Russia's ruling tandem - with President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin. An American tendency to deal with Medvedev was noted. Nevertheless, Barack Obama had a 90-minute meeting with Putin. He said in an interview with Fox News that he found the Russian prime minister "to be tough, smart, shrewd, very unsentimental, very pragmatic". "And on areas where we disagree, like Georgia, I don't anticipate a meeting of the minds anytime soon," Obama said. Putin behaved in traditional fashion, putting down some markers at the meeting. The visitor was shown a "Russian boot", albeit to fan the coals of a tea samovar, and the breakfast menu had pancakes with cranberry sauce, a dig at Obama's loquacity (in Russian slang verbal diarrhoea is described as "diluting the cranberries").

The democratization plans of the Bush administration and its support for "colour revolutions" had a negative effect on the attitudes of Russia and some other governments towards the USA. Barack Obama has not given up on the principle of support for democratic values and respect for human rights but has made some important adjustments to this policy. He said that America cannot and will not force any government system on another country and that it is not for Washington to choose the party or individual who will lead another state.

Another thesis in Barack Obama's speech at the Russian School of Economics is also very important: "State sovereignty must be a cornerstone of international order. Just as all states should have the right to choose their leaders, states must have the right to borders that are secure, and to their own foreign policies. That is true for Russia, just as it is true for the United States. Any system that cedes those rights will lead to anarchy. That's why we must apply this principle to all nations - and that includes nations like Georgia and Ukraine. America will never impose a security arrangement on another country. For any country to become a member of an organization like NATO, for example, a majority of its people must choose to; they must undertake reforms; they must be able to contribute to the Alliance's mission." This means that Washington does not intend to recognize Moscow's exclusive role in the post-Soviet area, although NATO's expansion to the East may be slowed down.

The subject of Karabakh did not come up directly during Barack Obama's visit to Moscow either in the final documents or at the presidents' press conference. But the problem certainly figured in the discussions. Subsequent events showed that it had been decided to present an agreed position several days later at the G8 summit in Italy in the form of a special statement by presidents Obama, Medvedev and Sarkozy - i.e. the leaders of the three powers that co-chair the Minsk Group.

President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow can be given a positive assessment overall. Disagreements between the USA and Russia were not completely overcome but there will be no new "cold war". A move away from confrontation and rivalry gives a chance of difficult regional problems being solved in an atmosphere of growing trust and cooperation. Not only Russia and the USA will gain from this, but all the peoples and countries of our region.