THE YEKATERINBURG REHEARSAL

The fact that Yekaterin-burg, a city in the Urals, has become the "centre of international politics",  as the Russian media claim, has received a mixed welcome from many an international player.  Two summits have taken place in Russia - that of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on 15-16 June, and of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) the following day.

The latest, ninth, meeting of the heads of the SCO states was attended by the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, PRC President Hu Jintao and delegations from observer states - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Pakistani Prime Minister Asif Zardari and, as a guest, Afghan President Hamid Karzai. It is said that they all arrived in Yekaterinburg to think about building "a more just and rational architecture of interstate relations, against the backdrop of crisis in the traditional systems of security and financial stability."

The summit decided to admit Sri Lanka and Belarus to the status of SCO partners in dialogue.  A special expert group will continue to work on a draft document on the procedure for accession of new members to the SCO. The organization's practical cooperation with the United Nations, the CIS, YevrAzES and the Collective Security Treaty Organi-zation will also be broadened.

One of the most important issues discussed at the Yekaterinburg forum was the fight against terrorism, drug trafficking and organized crime.  In addition, the SCO countries welcomed the start of US-Russia talks on the preparation of a strategic offensive weapons reduction treaty, urged the international community to exercise caution and do its best to resume the negotiating process for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula (incidentally, without any mention of sanctions) and expressed grave concern about the difficult situation in Afghanistan.

The final declaration of the Yekaterinburg meeting specifically stresses that "maintaining international peace is only possible if all nations, without exception, enjoy equal security."  Incidentally, some Western media discerned in this a hint at the US plans to deploy components of its missile defence system in Eastern Europe.  However, for the international press the main event of the summit was a different matter:  the SCO countries discussed "strengthening the international currency system, using not only the dollar, but also reserve currencies, for example, by introducing a single legal tender for the countries of the SCO, a 'supranational currency.'"  And although this idea did not spark any great enthusiasm in Chinese leader Hu Jintao (the dollar occupies the honorary position of reserve currency in the Middle Kingdom), in contrast to Medvedev and Nazarbayev, it will remain on the agenda - experts will now work on this issue.

"The US dollar has failed to do its job," said D. Medvedev.  "A national currency playing the role of regional and international reserve currency is a long-obsolete system, which aims to deliver unilateral benefits to the nation which promotes its currency," said N.  Nazarbayev.

The Kazakh president is certain that the introduction of a single, supranational currency would make it possible to improve trade and economic transactions between SCO countries and would improve the economic potential of the organization.

This issue headed the agenda at the BRIC summit too, and leaders also spoke in support of "reforms to international financial institutions" and the creation of a "predictable and diversified currency system."

However, if you followed the SCO and BRIC summits, you would have noted that the countries which make up these blocs are not yet fully decided on what to do and how far to participate in various initiatives.  This is why recent events should best be described as "test runs", intended to determine the international community's reactions to different ideas.

"The organization member states intend to strive together with the international community to form a more just, equal, comprehensive and orderly international financial system, which would consider a real balance of interests of all its participants and which would grant equal access to the benefits of globalization to all states," reads the SCO Declaration.

As for general trade, economic and investment cooperation, the organization plans to discuss the potential of observer states and partners within the dialogue.  It should not be forgotten that the SCO was initially created as a security organization, and economic projects might indeed strengthen it.  Beijing, for instance, is ready to provide $10 billion from the very outset, in the form of credit support, to be spent on addressing the consequences of the economic crisis for the organization's member states.

Dmitriy Medvedev and Hu Jintao also signed a number of agreements, worth hundreds of billions of dollars, on cooperation in the energy sector.  Here too, this is effectively a matter of Chinese finance for Russian oil and gas companies which are struggling in the economic crisis.

When people talk about the SCO's potential, they usually refer to the fact that the total area of the countries in the organization is almost 30,189,000 square kilometres (three fifths of the area of Eurasia), and the total population is 1.5 billion people (one quarter of the Earth's total population), that is, this alliance simply must be, by definition, weighty and influential.  However, the question is whether these nations have real interests and objectives in common.  After all, even in Europe, which has been united in the EU for a long time and, in principle, quite successfully, there are still a great many disagreements.  And different (in size, potential, capabilities and political systems) countries like Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are bound to differ.

They say about the SCO that it rests on Moscow's and Beijing's desire to confront the West and to become like NATO in the future.  The summit in Yekaterinburg, in some observers' opinions, was no exception - it was a gathering of countries which have suffered from a unipolar world order dominated by the United States.  But China and Russia are still more rivals than partners, thus it will be difficult for them to agree on truly effective measures to confront Western influence.

After all, this same Russia is trying to use the SCO, not only to push the United States out of the "game" in Central Asia (and not only from the field of raw materials, but even from matters related to Afgha-nistan), but also to demarcate spheres of interest with China.  For Moscow, Beijing is first and foremost a stable and stable importer of its resources.  But at the same time, Russian and Chinese interests sometimes clash in no small manner.  Beijing is very reserved and prudent in this situation, trying to maintain balance and not cede its positions.

And touching upon Afghanistan, Russia's attempts to avoid taking part in Washington-initiated efforts to address the problem are evident.  At the same time, Moscow tries to come up with proposals of its own.

A yet more intriguing factor was the appearance at the Yekaterinburg summit of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinehad, who arrived there even despite mass disorders in his country.  Giving the floor to the president of Iran (which, incidentally, aspires to become a full member of the organization) in the "summit arena," the SCO leaders knew very well that he would criticize the United States and the West in general.

In addition, Ahmadinejad arrived in the Urals precisely when US President Barack Obama was sending quite clear signals to Tehran that there was a need to continue dialogue, one way or another.  It is also possible, of course, that the Iranian leader is playing his own game, whose consequences might indeed surprise Russia...

In the mean time, the other summit in Yekaterinburg, the BRIC summit, declared its goal to be the creation of conditions and mechanisms which would help strengthen the role of countries with growing economies in global decision-making.  For example, Brazil, Russia, India and China account for 40% of the world's population, and many analysts argue that, by 2050, these nations might economically be more powerful than the G8.

The bloc participants insist on reforms at the United Nations to give more weight to India and Brazil.  In addition, the BRIC decided to broaden cooperation in the prevention of global warming and in the energy sector.

However, here too, as in the SCO, there are many differences, and BRIC countries are quite distant from one another (Brazil is on a completely different continent).  And Russia lags behind China, India and Brazil in terms of economic development.  For example, a blog on The Wall Street Journal web site, whose Russian translation is published by the inopressa.ru web site, cites the sensational results of a rating poll conducted by the Washington-based consulting firm Frontier Strategy Group (FSG).  Interviews with the 72 largest multinationals shows that investors have revised their priorities:  Brazil, India and China still head the list but Russia has swapped places with Mexico and finds itself in 9th place, between Vietnam and Colombia...  The FSG cites the "political uncertainty" which reigns in Russia and the raw materials-dependant nature of its economy, poor demographic situation and the absence from the country of a sustainable middle class as reasons.  However, with rising oil prices Russia's situation might improve.  In addition, neither India nor China wants to openly criticize the United States.  The BRIC and SCO are only taking their first steps into the international arena and for now plans are more evident than practice.  Be that as it may, if the coordination of international efforts in the directions selected as priorities at the two summits in Yekaterinburg is really effective, everyone will benefit, including countries which border on the SCO and BRIC member states.