RAPID RESPONSE - 2009

NATO's multinational Cooperative Longbow 09/Cooperative Lancer 09 exercises have be-gun in Georgia as part of the Partnership for Peace initiative. More than 1,000 servicemen from NATO member states and alliance partners are scheduled to take part. They include Albania, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Georgia, Hungary, Greece, Spain, Macedonia, Turkey, the UAE, Great Britain and the USA.

The preliminary stage of the exercises took place in Tbilisi, then they moved to Vaziani (from 11 to 19 May). The command post exercise focused on training and exercising NATO staff skills and procedures and improving interoperability between NATO and partner nations for crisis response operations at the multinational brigade level. The scenario is based on a fictitious United Nations mandated, NATO-led crisis response operation. The Cooperative Lancer 09 field exercises will be held in the same place, the Vaziani base, from 21 May to 3 June. They envisage the preparation of multinational forces for peacekeeping operations at battalion level.

North Atlantic alliance representative Robert Pszczel described the exercises as command staff and stressed that "no-one will be using weapons or tanks, and the scenario is concerned with operations that are carried out under a UN mandate". Despite this statement, Russia's reaction to the NATO exercises was extremely negative. On the eve of the exercises, Russian Federation President Dmitriy Medvedev issued warnings: "When one military bloc or another holds exercises close to areas that were until very recently the scene of a very high degree of tension, and where even today the situation is far from simple, this creates the danger of all sorts of complications arising." "If, let's say, we are talking about Russia's relations  with the North Atlantic alliance, such decisions disappoint and do not promote the renewal of full contacts between the Russian Federation and NATO. We will follow very carefully what is going on there and, if need be, will take the appropriate decisions," the Russian president said.

For his part, Russian Federation Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said directly in an interview with the Japanese press that he is annoyed that the exercises look like support for President Saakashvili. "The violent dispersal of demonstrators, the wounding of opposition activists, shooting at them with rubber bullets, blood on the streets, a growing number of political prisoners, mutiny in the armed forces and with all this going on they decide to hold military exercises. Of course, this cannot be seen as anything but support for the ruling regime."

But Russia's fears have had no result - NATO did not give up its long planned exercises in Georgia, although under pressure from Moscow some countries did decide not to take part (Moldova, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Serbia), while others could not take part because of financial difficulties and the geographic distance from the location of the exercises (Estonia and Latvia). Of the CIS countries only Azerbaijan sent to Georgia a small group of eight officers. The fact that they went is what's important as it clearly shows the independence and multi-directional nature of Azerbaijan's policy not only on the economy but on security too. When it came down to it, Armenia, which said it would definitely take part in the exercises, could not refuse its patron, Moscow, and did not send its representatives to Tbilisi. This clearly showed that Armenia does not have even a modicum of independence.

I think that the difference in attitude between Baku and Yerevan towards their responsibilities as NATO partners will not have gone unnoticed in Brussels or in the capitals of the leading NATO member states. In his congratulatory video message to mark the 15th anniversary of Azerbaijan joining NATO's Partnership for Peace programme, alliance secretary general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said that Azerbaijan and NATO have created a firm foundation of bilateral relations which could serve as a basis for strengthening collaboration in the future. The secretary general stressed the need to continue reforms in Azerbaijan's armed forces in order to bring them to NATO standards and praised Baku's participation in international peacekeeping operations. During President Ilham Aliyev's recent visit to Brussels and his meetings with the NATO leadership, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer announced the alliance's support for the Karabakh settlement process within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, something that can hardly have been a cause for optimism in Yerevan. Armenian Defence Minister Seyran Ohanyan said that this was the reason for his country's refusal to take part in the NATO exercises in Georgia.

It is very significant too that in its draft budget for 2010 the US administration has reduced the amount of financial assistance to Armenia to $30m, compared with $48m in the 2009 fiscal year. The budget does not include a provision on providing humanitarian aid to Nagornyy Karabakh either, which was $8m this year. In addition, the administration proposes in 2010 giving Armenia military assistance of $3m and Azerbaijan $4m. The military training programme (IMET) envisages $450,000 for Armenia and $900,000 for Azerbaijan. Of course, this is just a draft law and there is no doubt that Armenian lobbyists will mobilize all their potential to change the situation in their favour during the budget debates in Congress. However, it is emerging that Washington is gradually beginning to realize the absurdity of a situation in which Armenia, which carries out a destructive policy and is a source of confrontation in the region, also enjoys generous financial assistance from the USA.

As for Moscow, it has not stopped at just one public expression of its indignation at the exercises in Georgia and has refused to attend a previously planned sitting of the NATO-Russia council. The Russian authorities announced that Russia's border service was taking responsibility for protecting the Abkhazian and South Ossetian borders. President Medvedev publicly signed the relevant "agreement" together with the puppet "presidents" Bagapsh and Kokoiti, who had been hastily summoned to Moscow for this purpose. 

It gets worse. Russia's permanent representative to NATO, Dmitriy Rogozin, said that he does not rule out the possibility of provocations against NATO servicemen during the exercises in Georgia. "Then they will point the finger at us as though we organized it," the envoy said. "We are saying to NATO - listen, if, despite our warnings, you still go ahead with these exercises, you must bear full responsibility for the safety of your servicemen. If anything should happen to them, then remember, we have warned you."

Later, Tbilisi really did remember Rogozin's words, when right before the start of the NATO exercises there was an attempted army mutiny in Georgia. According to the official report, a tank battalion based in Mukhrovani, five miles from the military exercises, announced its withdrawal from subordination to the higher army command. Some 500 servicemen from the battalion cut off access to the base and did not allow officials from the Defence Ministry in. Under the pretext that they were under attack from the Russians the battalion commander ordered the battalion onto a war footing. Operational steps were taken and the mutinous military unit was surrounded. After the soldiers learnt from the news that they had been deceived by their commanders, they voluntarily agreed to be taken by bus and dispersed amongst military units loyal to the authorities. The battalion's mutinous command fled and are on the run. An investigation has begun.

It has emerged that the actions of the mutineers were not an isolated incident but part of a wider plan aimed at overthrowing Saakashvili's government. Many Georgian generals and officers in the reserve were involved. Georgian TV showed secretly filmed footage of Gia Gvaladze, a former major in the Georgian special forces, saying that the battalion would be supported by a column of 250 pieces of armoured hardware and 5,000 Russian servicemen, who would move from South Ossetia straight to Tbilisi. Gvaladze himself and another 13 people suspected of organizing the army mutiny have been arrested. President Saakashvili initially directly accused Moscow of fomenting and organizing the subversive actions but slightly toned down his rhetoric in his later speeches.

It is difficult to say how justified these accusations are. All that is clear is that Moscow will not manage to get from the West, and specifically from the new Obama administration, recognition of Russia's exclusive rights in the post-Soviet area in exchange for constructive cooperation on the remaining package of world problems. Matthew Bryza, the deputy assistant to the US secretary of state, said on Ekho Moskvy Radio recently: "The USA will never recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. We are now helping Georgia to raise the professionalism of the army and to restore strategic thinking as military doctrine." The American diplomat, who is no stranger to us either, continued: "Russia is not meeting its obligations under the agreements of 12 August and 8 September and UN Resolution 1866, because Russia is obliged to withdraw its troops to their pre-war positions and levels. Russia has even increased the number of troops. There were 4,500 troops before and now there are more than 10,000. Russia is going in the opposite direction."

The West too is going in its own direction - the NATO exercises in the region are in full swing. And there has been no destabilization in Georgia either as a result of opposition protests or the revolt of the discontented military. And this is a good thing. In the final analysis, everyone is a winner when stability is reinforced in the South Caucasus.