The "road map", the "big massacre", and the Karabakh bend

Ahead of another anniversary of the so-called "Armenian genocide", Ankara and Yerevan announced agreement on a "road map" providing for the normalization of bilateral relations. The Turkish media reports that the "road map" contains five points, specifically: Armenian recognition of the 1921 Treaty of Kars between Turkey and the Soviet Union, the establishment of a joint commission of historians "to investigate allegations of genocide" (third countries can also join the commission), the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia and the signing of agreements on trade and on the accreditation of the two countries' ambassadors to Georgia in Ankara and Yerevan, "after which direct diplomatic relations will be established".

Meanwhile, the Turkish leadership confirmed that the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict are mutually linked. Speaking about the "road map", Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that "Turkey's position remains unchanged: the Armenians withdraw from the occupied territories and we open the border. I see no other formula for solving this problem. Turkey and Azerbaijan have done their best to meet Armenia halfway, and now it is Armenia's turn."

For its part, Baku expressed its hope that "the road map drawn up by Armenia and Turkey will be implemented in the context of statements made by representatives of the Turkish political leadership that relations between Turkey and Armenia will be established following withdrawal from the occupied Azerbaijani territories".

It must be noted that the road map is just another declaration of intent and is not legally binding. Erdogan stressed that as "an initialled draft of a frame for future agreement", the text of the road map is currently being clarified. Nevertheless, this was enough for Turkey to express its readiness to establish good neighbourly relations with Armenia, thus countering, ahead of the so-called "Armenian date", the trump card held by forces seeking international recognition for the "Armenian genocide". 

Some politicians in Armenia and Turkey assessed this as the success of Turkish diplomacy. But things are not as simple as they seem. Yes, by initialing the "road map" of rapprochement with Armenia, the Turkish authorities ensured that the US president does not recognize the "Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey" in his traditional address to the Armenian community. But Obama had to please the Armenian diaspora, which he did. The US president spoke in Armenian for the first time and called the events of 1915 "Mets Yegern", which means "Big Massacre". Thus, even though Obama did not recognize the "genocide" in terms of international law, he confirmed the traditional Armenian position from a historical point of view. A question arises: why did Ankara make a sacrifice by pursuing a policy of rapprochement with Armenia? It seems that Turkey itself is raising this question as its Foreign Ministry issued an official statement about the unacceptability of the US president mentioning the phrase "Mets Yegern". But it was too late, and another question arises: what will Ankara sacrifice next year to ensure that the US president does not pronounce this phrase? Or will the Turkish leadership continue sacrificing its national interests until Obama totally learns the Armenian language by his second term in office?

The true intentions of the Armenian leadership in agreeing the "road map" with Ankara will soon become clear. However, its appearance gave rise to an ambiguous reaction from a significant section of Armenian public-political circles, demonstrating that they are not ready for good neighbourly dialogue with Turkey, not to mention the necessary concessions in a Karabakh settlement. For example, the Dashnaktsutyun party spoke about the expediency of its membership of the ruling coalition since, it thinks, the appearance of the "road map" ahead of 24 April and "following statements by Turkish leaders about the Karabakh problem… deal a blow to the interests of Armenia and the Armenian people." A number of Armenian spokesmen said that President Serzh Sargsyan had "displayed terrible irresponsibility", "dug a grave for his political career" and "committed high treason".

However, such reactions only confirm the inevitable failure of Armenia's aggressive policy. The geopolitical interests of leading states - the USA, Russia and France, members of the OSCE Minsk Group "troika" - force them to expedite a settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict. These interests, which require stability in the South Caucasus and an acceleration of regional integration, are in contrast to the growing prospect of a resumption of hostilities in Karabakh in the current conditions of "neither war, nor peace". This may result from the continuing Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territories. It would inevitably prompt Azerbaijan to begin a war of liberation, running counter to the aims of the mediators, who would have no choice but to urge Yerevan to withdraw its troops from the occupied territories and secure a solution based on the norms of international law, including UN Security Council resolutions.

The major centres of global political power can no longer ignore Azerbaijan's legitimate rights to the whole of its internationally-recognized territory. Further, unlike Armenia, our country is a significant partner for them and is the most influential state in the South Caucasus. In turn, Baku expects the co-chairmen to exert their mechanisms of pressure on Yerevan in order to force it to give up its policy of occupation of Azerbaijani land. So we might very soon see how consistent the great powers are in their actions, as they express their interest, not only in a swift solution to the Karabakh conflict, but also in political-economic support for a post-conflict peace. For the time being, the fact that the forces involved unanimously favour the return of the occupied territories to Azerbaijan shows that there is a real chance of expectations being realised in practice soon.