"SPRING" IN RELATIONS

During March, the Armenian and Tur-kish media disturbed the public in their countries and Azerbaijan with sensational reports about a possible agreement between Yerevan and Ankara. For example, the Star newspaper, which is close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP), said that the negotiations between Armenia and Turkey are coming to an end. According to the newspaper, the agreement which is planned to be signed provides for the opening of the border, the launch of direct trade and the setting up of a joint commission which will "investigate the events of 1915". The newspaper claimed that the Karabakh issue will not become an obstacle to the improvement of Turkish-Armenian relations.

In turn, another newspaper Sabah reported that deputies from the JDP, who took part in meetings at the US Congress on the possible adoption of an "Armenian genocide" resolution, spoke out in the same vein. However, MP Nursuna Memecan, who participated in the meeting, denied these allegations: "…We said that the talks between Turkey and Armenia have been going on for a year. This issue is being dealt with by the presidents of the three countries. If the USA adopts a decision at this stage (meaning the recognition of the "Armenian genocide"), this will be like adding water to pilaf."

Analysts link the forecasts about the possible signing of a Turkish-Armenian agreement to the forthcoming visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to Yerevan in mid-April where the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization will hold another meeting. Before that, US President Barack Obama is expected to visit Turkey in early April. The situation is certainly affected by the approaching of 24 April when the US president will have to address the Armenian community which expects Obama to keep his election promise to recognize the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire as "Armenian genocide" or to get away with uncertain formulations like to all his predecessors. It is clear that the normalization or possible normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations may save President Obama from a difficult choice that may have serious consequences.

The Los Angeles Times reported on 17 March that Obama's fears are related to the fact that he expects Turkey to support "his new journey to the Middle East". According to the newspaper, officials of the US administration are considering postponing the president's statement, motivating this by the warming of Turkish-Armenian relations. "Currently, we are focused on moving forward, and the USA may help Armenia and Turkey to work together to reach agreement on the past," the press secretary of the National Security Council, Michael Ham-mer, said while responding to Los Angeles Times questions. He pointed out that the administration has an interest in the improvement of Turkish-Armenian relations and believes that "an open and honest dialogue between the two countries regarding issues of the past is possible".

It must be noted that President Obama is under strong pressure. Radio Liberty reported that four congressmen - Democrats Adam Schiff and Frank Pallone, and Republicans George Radanovich and Mark Kirk - have called on the president to use the term "genocide" in his annual message on 24 April. In his interview with the newspaper Aksam, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan pointed out that there is a risk of such recognition in April. He pointed out that "such a development of events will damage Armenian-Turkish relations and the process of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan". "We openly say this to the Americans," Babacan said, adding that Turkey has never been so close to restoring its relations with Armenia: "This is the best moment in our relations with the Armenians since 1915. We are very close to solving the problem. Such a chance does not appear every day."

Indeed, 2008 and 2009 have seen relations between Ankara and Yerevan warm. This is proved by Turkish President Abdullah Gul's sensational visit to Yerevan where he and his counterpart Serzh Sargsyan watched a football match between the Armenian and Turkish national teams. Apart from that, Prime Minister Erdogan and Foreign Minister Babacan have held several meetings. The Turkish government has allocated two million dollars for the restoration of an Armenian church on the Isle of Akdamar. The state company Turkish Airlines intends to join the Istanbul-Yerevan and Yerevan-Antalya private charter flights. Last year Armenia was visited by a tourist group from Turkey for the first time, and in February 2009, the Turkish Ministry of Tourism and Culture adopted a decision to extend some privileges to tourists from Armenia (up to 50,000 Armenian tourists spend their holidays in Turkey every year). Turkish-Armenian contacts have become more active - both at the level of officials and civil society representatives, experts and journalists. There has been a report that the state TV and radio company is planning to launch programmes in Armenian.

The normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations suggests, as we said above, the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of the border. What will the sides gain from this? As far as diplomatic relations are concerned, it is planned that initially, the Turkish ambassador to Georgia will also be accredited in Armenia. As for the opening of the border, it is difficult to expect a surge in cargo transportation and a growth in trade. According to statistics, even though the border is closed, 28,400 heavy-load vehicles, of which 11,400 were Turkish, travelled from Turkey to Armenia through Georgia in 2008. Some of this flow can be carried out directly, not by road, but by railway. However, as long as the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is closed, no cargo transportation will be possible from Europe and Turkey through Armenia, and therefore, the benefits of opening the Turkish-Armenian border will be minimal. It is no surprise that there are opponents of this not just in Azerbaijan and Turkey, but also in Armenia itself.

For example, according to the functionary of the Dashnaktsutyun party (ARFD) and head of Ay Data's Yerevan office, Kiro Manoyan, the opening of the border with Turkey will yield not only benefits to Armenia. Manoyan is convinced that "the Armenian side will be in a much worse and more unequal situation". A number of experts suppose that if the border is open, local light and food industry manufacturers will find it difficult to complete with the influx of cheaper Turkish goods of higher quality.

Nevertheless, the establishment of economic relations with Turkey is of benefit to Armenia which will get a chance to sell electricity to Turkey's eastern regions, to access the Turkish market and to expand its trade-economic relations with Europe, Syria and Lebanon, which have a large Armenian community, through its contacts with the Turkish side. It is expected (quoting World Bank calculations) that after the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, Armenia's foreign trade turnover will increase by 500 million dollars. Yerevan has a vested interest in Turkish investments as there is high demand for them in conditions of the world financial crisis.

This is proved by Armenia's indirect invitation to Turkey to participate in a project to build a new block of the Armenian nuclear power station in Armenia. However, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sarkisyan said that his words had been misinterpreted. "The issue is that some of the shares of the future nuclear power station may be put on sale. In this case, it is possible that Turkish, Greek and other companies will have an interest in them," he said. For your information: Armenia is planning to build a new 1,000-MW block of the nuclear power station by 2016 (by that time, the existing block will run out and will have to be closed down). A tender on the construction of the block has already been announced. Yerevan has offered to share the expenses with neighbouring Georgia. But the problem is not only about financing, but also about the transportation of large-size equipment, nuclear fuel, disposal of used heat-emitting elements, etc. If these issues are not agreed with Georgia and Turkey, neither European nor Russian companies will be able to implement this project.

However, despite the importance of the economic and transport component of the planned Armenian-Turkish agreement, the main problem is related to Armenian claims to Turkey (under the cover of the "1915 genocide" issue) and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh. Touching on the possibility of Turkish-Armenian relations normalizing, the well-known American analyst, Ariel Cohen, said: "I think that this is a slow process, but there is good will on both sides. The issue is how the Turks will solve the question of historical facts of 1915-1917 and what Turkey needs to do so that history stops getting in the way of modernism in their relations. Since Turkey is currently going through a process of political Islamization and is distancing itself from the West as a result of this complicated geopolitical reorientation, this may also affect Azerbaijan. The improvement of relations between Turkey and Armenia needs to be seen exactly in the contest of Turkey's geopolitical reorientation to Russia and Eurasia and Turkey's estrangement from the United States and the European Union. For this reason, Azerbaijan needs to take a very careful approach to the processes that are going on between Ankara and Yerevan."

But Baku should keep track not only of geopolitical moments. It is possible that someone in Ankara is thinking of untying the old Armenian-Turkish knot at Azerbaijan's expense. Since it is impossible to return Nagornyy Karabakh to Azerbaijan in the foreseeable future, the legalization of this loss and the appeasement of Armenian ambitions in this way may seem a successful combination to some people in the Turkish leadership. The Armenians may also see this as quite a pragmatic exchange.

They understand very well that even if the USA recognizes the "genocide of 1915", it will be impossible to get any material or territorial compensation from Turkey. Paper resolutions will not help here, and there is hardly anyone who will want to fight for Armenian interests. However, compensation to "long-suffering" Armenians in the form of Nagornyy Karabakh seems a suitable option, especially if Turkey joins the West and the USA which tend towards this anyway. Not only Armenians have such ideas on their mind, they are also being publicly announced. For example, the former president and current opposition leader, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, said: "…As long as the Karabakh issue has not been solved, Armenian-Turkish relations will not normalize and the border will remain closed. A lot will depend on how unbiased and constructive Turkey's position on this issue will be, specifically, how this country can influence Azerbaijan and prepare it for inevitable concessions." How do you like it?

Understanding the concern of the Azerbaijani authorities and public, Turkish politicians and diplomats are making soothing statements. The media report that the game with the Armenians has a domestic political aspect. Municipal elections will be held soon, and due to the economic crisis (the Turkish lira has dropped by more than 30 per cent, while unemployment has reached the highest level over the last 25 years), the JDP will not easily win them. If the USA recognizes the "genocide", the Islamists will make full use of the anti-American and anti-Israeli card, especially as this option has already been tested and people are ready to react to it. If the diplomatic game with Armenia makes it possible to prevent unfavourable decisions for Ankara, the JDP will present it as its service and will try to use it in the municipal elections. Whatever it is, it is clear that the romantic moods which have dominated Azerbaijani-Turkish relations for a long time, especially in public perception, are becoming a thing of the past, and their pragmatic component will strengthen in the course of time. There is no need to panic or lose heart. Unlike Armenia, which is an "outpost" of Russia and totally depends on Moscow both from a military, political and financial-economic point of view, relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey have an equal nature. Turkey has no levers of pressure on Azerbaijan, while it might lose a lot. With any, even the most optimistic scenario of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, Azerbaijan's importance to Turkey, both from a political and economic point of view, is much higher.

For this reason, Azerbaijan is right in keeping track of the situation, displaying restraint and avoiding thoughtless statements and hasty decisions. It is clear that the Armenians would regard the deterioration of Azerbaijani-Turkish relations and deep disappointment in Turkey as an indirect victory for themselves. This cannot be allowed to happen. Despite the changing political situation, the precept of the late President Heydar Aliyev "one nation - two states", which he used to term Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, should be preserved, for it forms the basis of our common future. Together we will overcome all difficulties.