THE REAL PROBLEMS OF AN UNREAL STATE

It is exactly one year since the parliament of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija, part of Serbia, unilaterally announced its independence from Serbia and the creation of a sovereign state, the Republic of Kosovo.

To mark the first anniversary of their separation from Belgrade, thousands of residents of Kosovo took to the streets, schoolchildren paraded in Pristina and concerts and firework displays were held in the squares. 

Kosovo's "prime minister" Hashim Thaci described "independent Kosovo's first year" as "full of success". "Our country is showing its viability," Kosovo's "president" Fatmir Sejdiu said in an interview with the US paper The Christian Science Monitor. Both Thaci and Sejdiu are convinced that a tolerant society is being created in Kosovo "in which all peoples can feel themselves at home". It was also announced that the government has already managed to achieve economic growth of 6 per cent, create thousands of new jobs, build dozens of schools and thousands of kilometres of roads.

As for congratulations from abroad, it was of course most important of all for Pristina to hear the voice of the main initiator of Kosovo's independence, Washington.

"The United States congratulates the people of the Republic of Kosovo as they celebrate the first anniversary of Kosovo's historic Declaration of Independence. Over the past year, Kosovo has moved quickly to build democratic institutions and to implement the principles of UN Special Envoy and Nobel Laureate Martti Ahtisaari's Plan, including strong constitutional protections for minority rights and religious and cultural heritage. The United States commends the efforts of the people and government of Kosovo to promote stability in the region and work cooperatively across ethnic and religious lines to develop a secure and prosperous future," says a report by the American State Department. The USA heads the list of countries that have recognized Kosovo's independence. They are just 55 of the 192 UN member states, including 22 of the 27 EU members plus Canada, Australia, Japan, Albania, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Malaysia and others. On 19 February this year the Republic of the Maldives was the last country to recognize Kosovo. As before, Serbia itself, Russia, China, Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Cyprus, Bosnia, Azerbaijan and others do not recognize the independence of the Serbian province.

Remarkably, on 20 February Hashim Thaci said in an interview with the Belgrade publication Politika that Russia supposedly intends to recognize Kosovo's independence. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hurried to deny the statement, saying that "Mr Thaci is presenting his wishes as reality" and "he is the last person who can speak on behalf of the Russian Federation". Moscow, Belgrade's main ally in this dispute, could not prevent Kosovo's separation from Serbia a year ago. The most effective step that the Russian Federation can take now is to block Kosovo's membership of the UN. The Security Council, on which Russia has a veto, will have to approve a decision on Pristina's accession to the UN. China has a veto too and is also against Kosovo's independence.

So, Kosovo's semi-independence has lasted for a whole year. It's time to garner the first results. The gist of European attitudes towards the EU's new neighbour boils down to: the direst predictions after the announcement of the Serbian province's independence have not come true, nor have the most optimistic forecasts.

Kosovo's economy remains in a lamentable state, for all the statements by the local leadership. Investors are not yet champing at the bit to invest, especially since the majority of projects are long term (the province is rich in natural resources). Breakdown can be seen in both industry and agriculture. Unemployment is off the scale and mainly affects young people. According to unofficial statistics, 75 per cent of the population of Kosovo below the age of 35 do not have permanent work. All this promotes corruption, the black market and organized crime. The fact that a large quantity of weapons remained in public hands after the war also has a significant effect on the high level of criminality. Moreover, Kosovo is said to be the main transit point for most (around 80 per cent) of the drugs entering Europe. They are mainly opium poppies, grown in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Practically all the successes of Kosovo listed by Thaci and Sejdiu, if they have occurred at all, did so only thanks to Western financial injections. The new "state" which now has its national anthem, flag and other attributes of sovereignty continues to remain one of the European Union's main problems. The Frankfurter Rundschau commented, "In the best case scenario real self-government will appear in Kosovo in 10 years time, even though decisions on all the major issues will still be taken in Brussels." 

Moreover, Pristina does not actually control the north of Kosovo, inhabited mainly by Serbs, which makes up around one-quarter of the self-declared state. International forces - NATO, the UN and the European Union - keep order in Kosovo but they cannot guarantee either that the situation will not destabilize. "The situation remains very tense, we have already seen outbreaks of violence in the past few weeks and they could be repeated. We need to solve this problem once and for all," thinks the European Union's special representative, Pieter Feith.

Things have not yet gone as far as major clashes, but isolated incidents are quite frequent.

Belgrade is actively supporting the Kosovo Serbs. The same day as the celebrations of Kosovo's first anniversary of "independence", a sitting was held of the Skupstina or assembly of communities of Serbia's Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohija, not far from the town of Mitrovica in Kosovo. Opposition deputies from Serbia's National Assembly attended.

According to Politika, the sitting unanimously adopted a declaration confirming the constitutional status of the province within Serbia's borders and rejecting all unilateral separatist acts of the temporary bodies of power in Pristina on the independence of the province and creation of security forces. 

A petition was sent to the Serbian government, demanding that an emergency sitting of the Security Council be convened to pass a resolution revoking the decision to base the EULEX mission in Kosovo which is implementing the rejected Martti Ahtisaari plan. Serbian Ex-Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, leader of the Radicals Vojislav Seselj and Serbian Patriarch Pavle gave their support to the sitting.

As Politika pointed out, it's interesting that the delegates to the Serbian National Assembly held separate sittings. Observers think this could be a sign of a split amongst Serbian politicians caused by different opinions on Kosovo's future and how to fight for it. The speaker of the Serbian parliament, Slavica Dukic Dejanovic, said that there were no disagreements, and Serbia's state policy towards Kosovo remained united and unchanged. 

Meanwhile, there are differences though. Serbia's current president, Boris Tadic and his team, are pro-Europe politicians whose main priority is EU membership and they may make various concessions on the road to Brussels. At the same time, the Serbian radicals are determined to get Kosovo back and ready to go to extremes to do so. The latest elections in the country showed that popular support for both camps is roughly the same. Another difference is that some Serbian politicians see Kosovo's future only within Serbia while others are ready in principle to agree to the division of Kosovo into Albanian and Serbian parts. 

However, whatever may be going on at home, Serbia's official position is that the battle for Kosovo is not yet over. Belgrade has disputed the legality of the independence declaration at the UN International Court of Justice. Boris Tadic said that the unilateral separation of Kosovo is a direct violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999), the UN Charter and the Helsinki Accords. Tadic stresses in particular that in this context it is important that the case should be considered calmly in court without interference from politicians. "It is important for all of us not to link the Kosovo problem with the issue of EU accession for the countries of the region. Serbia has a unique place as a catalyst for the region's accession to the EU," Tadic says. However, the EU is clearly not ready for expansion at present.

All this means just one thing: despite the first anniversary of Pristina's "independence" and its recognition by 55 countries, the Kosovo question is still a long way from a final resolution, just as the Balkans are a long way from being described as a peaceful and stable region.