"UNIQUE OPTION"

Armenia is changing its Constitution. The country is switching from presidential to parliamentary form of government. The constitutional reform concept published in March can be viewed as the most significant event of this year for Armenia.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has already approved the blueprint making an interesting statement. "Undoubtedly, the concept is a progressive document the implementation of which will really help to provide new opportunities for further democratic development of Armenia," he said. It turns out that Armenia's democratic development has been hampered by the institution of presidency headed by Sargsyan himself?! But this is not the issue in hand.

No less remarkable was the moment when the discussion of the new Constitution began. It should be said that the talking about reformatting the state system of Armenia started one year ago. The first time Sargsyan voiced the need for constitutional reform was on 4 September 2013 when he announced Armenia's accession to the EAEU [Eurasian Economic Union]. By the way, there was not a shade of such plans in any of his campaign platforms.

Why is it just now that the need for constitutional reforms has arisen? It looks like there is no constitutional crisis in Armenia and there is even less belief in Sargsyan's sincere wish to promote principles of democracy in Armenia. So, what is it all about? In the opinion of the Armenian authorities' political opponents, Sargsyan needs the reforms to guarantee the ruler's seat for himself for many years. The Russian version of Putin and Medvedev, that is the president and the prime minister repeatedly swapping their seats, is fraught with consequences in Armenia. Because it is common knowledge that the main political opponent of Serzh Sargsyan is Robert Kocharyan, his former friend and previous president of Armenia. 

If Sargsyan should appoint himself prime minister and make some obscure person president for one term, Kocharyan could come to power through election and that would put paid to Sargsyan's political career. But after the constitutional reforms, when a president with token powers will be appointed for seven years by parliament, this post will become not very attractive for Kocharyan.

No less significant is another event of March, namely the withdrawal of Gagik Tsarukyan, the now former chairman of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP), from the country's political life. The PAP is above all a party protecting the interests of Kocharyan and its former leader, the oligarch Tsarukyan who is running Kocharyan's business empire. Describing itself as an alternative to the authorities, rather than opposition, the PAP has suddenly taken a radical anti-government stance. Tsarukyan who just recently announced that no Maidan could happen in Armenia, at least because he would not let that take place, all of a sudden called on people to turn to the streets and even take the presidential palace by storm. Analysts were indignant on that occasion. Armenia was not on the threshold of elections or transformations and there was no reason to speak about deterioration in the social or economic life of the country. Problems of that kind had always been there but there was no aggravation to speak about.

Tsarukyan's "revolutionary" activity did not last long. After a few preventive meetings with representatives of the authorities and open blackmail with threats to take their business away from them, he quit not only the party leadership but also politics. It will be no surprise if he leaves the country altogether. Consciously or not, Tsarukyan has "helped" the leadership of the state to actually wipe out Prosperous Armenia, that is, to render harmless the political weapon in Kocharyan's hands.

Yet let us get back to the reform blueprint and Sargsyan's considerations on constitutional changes. Some points arouse his concerns. "To speak more specifically, it is not quite clear to me how the suggested model is going to unconditionally guarantee two most important components: external and internal security of the state and stability of the administration system which, in my opinion, is ensured under the current administration system," the head of Armenia said. The keywords in this statement are "external and internal security of the state and stability of the administration system". Let us try and explain why. 

The thing is that Sargsyan has said on many occasions that he is not going to stay in the presidential post in the future or hold that of prime minister. Why? Again, not out of respect for democracy. Should Sargsyan decide to stay on in the post of president of the state, he would risk facing tough resistance from the diaspora and Robert Kocharyan who has much better relations with that diaspora than Sargsyan. The reasons why he will not be the prime minister were considered above. So what remains? The post of parliament speaker.

It is quite noteworthy in this situation that two draft constitutional reforms are being discussed. This has been announced by vice-speaker Ermine Nagdalyan.

Taking into account the fact that the main purpose of constitutional reforms is to establish a parliamentary form of government, these two versions supposedly reflect the difference in powers between the head of parliament and the prime minister. So the point at issue is whom the power wielding structures will be subordinated to. Sargsyan hints at this, too, when speaking about "external and internal security and stable administration".

In the end, the real picture of the campaign around the constitutional reforms is taking shape. Being chairman of the ruling Republican Party and parliament speaker with increased powers which will also include supervision of power wielding structures, Serzh Sargsyan will be able to appoint future presidents and heads of state.

Circles within the ruling elite of Armenia also admit that Sargsyan may become a "national leader" via the post of parliament speaker and by personally approving political decisions on major issues. 

Asked by the Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper, Eduard Sharmazanov, the press secretary of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and vice-speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia, replied that the incumbent president and chairman of the Republican Party, Serzh Sargsyan, will still lead the party for a long time. "Considering that the RPA is still going to run Armenia for a long time, if one follows the Republicans' logic, it turns out that Sargsyan intends, "through" the RPA, to run Armenia for a long time yet. It is with the aim of creating this particular opportunity that Sargsyan is undertaking constitutional changes," the newspaper writes in conclusion.

Thus the outlines of the Armenian political establishment's plans are already visible, albeit vaguely. Naturally enough, Sargsyan sees himself as the "grey cardinal" and "national leader". Who can take the posts of president and prime minister? It is an ungrateful task to forecast anything now because it is premature to speak about candidates for the posts of president or prime minister. Nonetheless, Armenian specialists and journalists themselves see the "cardboard president's" role played by Artur Baghdasaryan, leader of The Rule of Law party and member of the Security Council of Armenia. Firstly, Baghdasaryan was recently appointed member of the board of directors of the Rosneft-Itera company. The organization being in charge of Russian energy interests in Armenia, this appointment indicates that Rosneft has taken Baghdasaryan under its protection. Secondly, Artur Baghdasaryan is, to put it mildly, an Armenian symbol of political elasticity and acrobatics. A man of no scruples, he will stoop to any cooperation with anyone at all. Thirdly, Baghdasaryan nourishes hatred for the previous president, Kocharyan, who repeatedly made quite insulting and humiliating utterances addressed to him, which will certainly suit Sargsyan who takes Kocharyan as his number one opponent.

Yet another option should not be ruled out: trying to hold total power in his hands, the head of Armenia will have to keep control over the army. This is why efforts have been stepped up lately to popularize Defence Minister Seyran Oganyan, another potential man under "presidential control". If Sargsyan succeeds in keeping his power over the law-enforcers via Oganyan, he will also be able to deal with "internal security tasks" discussed above. 

As regards the post of prime minister, the situation is utterly ambiguous. Some political differences are already noticeable between Sargsyan and Prime Minister Ovik Abrahamyan, who may become, if the reform is implemented, a technical prime minister, and this idea is obviously not to his liking. In this context, Abrahamyan has already started preparing to play his own game. Thus, according to Armenian media reports, the activity of the Prosperous Armenia Party will be supervised and funded by incumbent Prime Minister Ovik Abrahamyan. This is the reason why, during the confrontation between Sargsyan and this party's former leader Tsarukyan, he did not support the latter who is his relative [Abrahamyan's son and Tsarukyan's daughter are married to each other]. Overtly refusing to support Tsarukyan, Abrahamyan decided to take advantage of the moment and lay hands on his relative's party. Now that the conflict against Sargsyan is gathering momentum, Abrahamyan will have a political weapon such as the PAP.

What will this transformation into a parliamentary state turn out to be for Armenia? Given that Sargsyan intends to run the country via parliament, it makes sense to examine the legislative body of Armenia and its internal power balance in more detail. 

Given the fact that the main component of parliamentary government is the multiparty system, it should be said that Armenia has never obtained one. Yes, this country's parliament does formally have six parties as of today and the opposition parties have about 40 per cent of the seats. But the matter is that these parties and all political institutions of the state in general are none other than projects designed for elections. Some of them succeeded, others failed but, one way or another, they do not quite fit in with the category of classical political parties. Many of them are more like political clubs. Even the ruling party is a kind of organization for bureaucrats, top ranking officials and representatives of criminal and business structures who need protection.

ARF [Armenian Revolutionary Federation] Dashnaktsutyun and Armenian National Congress can be regarded as Armenia's real political parties. The former can rather be viewed as the party of the diaspora whose social base is not so large in Armenia. As regards Armenian National Congress, it is a kind of alliance, a political bloc of several small parties.

Where will this balance of power lead to in case Armenia does turn into a parliamentary republic? Firstly, external and internal players, if they wish, will be able to manipulate the legislative body. It will also lead to unstable coalitions in the government. And this, in turn, may bring about political destabilization. Indeed, the ruling Republican Party is holding in its hands practically all administrative, financial and some media flows and agencies but will that always be so?

Apart from all other things, however hard might Sargsyan be trying to pull these reforms through and thus enable himself to stay in power, that power of his will be quite vulnerable. At least because a parliamentary election is to take place in Armenia in 2017, whereas Sargsyan's term in office as president will expire only in 2018. How could he carry out his ideas? Maybe he does not know that himself. But one thing is known for certain: only after settling all "organizational" issues and after the ruling clique has decided which post is the most important one in the state, only then will a referendum be held in Armenia. The possibility should not be ruled out that some unique option still unknown to world history will be chosen.