"BOMB" DEFUSED

Progress was achieved and a framework agreement signed at the talks in Lausanne on Iran's nuclear programme. Iranian Television broadcast a direct relay of US President Barack Obama's speech, which was dedicated to this event and which the head of the White House described as "an historic achievement". Iranians celebrated in the streets and the EU, China and Russia expressed their approval and praised everyone for their compromise. Konstantin Sivkov, a Doctor of Military Science, a political and military analyst and observer of the weekly "Military-Industrial Courier", spoke to R+ readers about the obvious and hidden aspects of this historic event.

- A final agreement on Iran's nuclear programme will be signed in June. But at the beginning of this year the representatives of western countries at the talks on Iran's nuclear programme pointed out the need to tighten sanctions against the IRI. They could see no other levers of pressure to force Iran to give up the development of nuclear weapons. What forced all the negotiators to embark on a compromise?

- The point is a major stand-off is now building in the Middle East. Shia forces - Iran in the north and the Houthis in Yemen in the south - have got Saudi Arabia in a vice. That is why el-Riyadh is doing everything it can to draw the Sunni countries of the Arab League into the struggle against the Shias. The Saudis are trying not to get caught up in a Shia encirclement. It is important for Iran to defuse the conflict with the West as much as possible, to get the sanctions lifted and strengthen its economy and military potential in order to conduct an effective geopolitical struggle in this region.

For its part, the West is aware that without Iran's participation it will be impossible to defeat Islamic State (ISIL) which constitutes a real threat to the interests of the western states, and not just in the Middle East. The fact is that a radical, militant Sunni Islam is rapidly infiltrating Europe and the US. These factors prompted the Europeans and the US to make peace with Iran. The framework agreement signed with Iran is a heavy  blow to the security of two countries - Israel and Saudi Arabia. In this aspect, the interests of Israel and Saudi Arabia are to some extent interlocked.

- But is Saudi Arabia's position so vulnerable?  Its huge capital, alliance with the USA, the support of the Arab countries in the Persian Gulf, leadership of OPEC and the complete eradication of the opposition in the country…

- The point is that in Saudi Arabia the Shia minority is being brutally suppressed, and this factor could shatter the apparent internal stability in this country at any time. Clearly, whereas in the south the Shia Houthis are winning in Yemen and in the north Iran is being strengthened by the lifting of international sanctions, one can easily see the threat of a social explosion in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and a demonstration by the local Shias, with the subsequent liquidation of the power of the Sunni monarchy. That is why el-Riyadh is trying to crush the Houthis in Yemen as quickly as possible and prevent being encircled by the Shias. Such a scenario with the Shia minority in Bahrain looks perfectly realistic.

- Could the lifting of sanctions in any way change the political-legal situation in Iran?

- I don't think there will be any internal political reforms in Iran. Tehran has made concessions only to give itself a free hand to solve Middle Eastern tasks. Saudi Arabia is an important political rival for Iran. El-Riyadh is funding Iran's enemies in Syria because the Syrian government is Shia. The Saudis also support the opponents of the Shia government in Iraq. In return Iran is carrying out a geopolitical attack in Yemen, on the borders with Saudi Arabia.

In this situation the West is objectively opposing the Sunni caliphate - ISIL - although Qatar is mainly running the show in Islamic State.

- In other words, with the lifting of sanctions Iran will be drawn more and more into a confrontation in the Middle East?

- Iran has long since been drawn into a war in Syria and Iraq. The zone of confrontation between the Sunnis and the Shias is now getting wider. The Sunnis are building an Arab caliphate and the Shias are trying to preserve their enclaves and ensure their domination in this region. The West is trying to manoeuvre between them. Because the greatest threat now comes from the ISIL movement for a Sunni caliphate, the West is opening the way to the Sunnis as a counterbalance. Specifically, it is trying to persuade Iran to release its troops to take part in the ground operation against ISIL. Up to now volunteers from the Iranian Guardians of the Islamic Revolution have been fighting against ISIL.

- How far has Iran gone in the compromise on the restriction of its nuclear programme?

- The fact that Iran has agreed to suspend two thirds of its centrifuges on uranium enrichment doesn't mean that they won't be able to launch them again at any time.  It doesn't take long to re-start work on the centrifuges. No-one can stop Iran continuing to develop nuclear weapons in secret and at the same time not take any practical action. In the production of nuclear weapons the main thing is the theoretical component and sound calculation, and the technical part can be carried out in 2-3 years. Iran already has medium-range missiles which can reach targets at a distance of 4,000 km.

Iran was reserved the right to continue work on its peaceful nuclear programme. A certain number of centrifuges will be used to obtain low-grade uranium, which could be used in the reactors of nuclear power stations. At first the US demanded the complete elimination of enriched uranium devices. But now they have embarked on a compromise and agreed to a proposal to retain a certain number of centrifuges. In return Iran has promised not to develop nuclear weapons and to create all the conditions for inspection. Sanctions will be lifted in exchange for Iran's participation in the struggle against ISIL.

- What will be the impact of Iran's new opportunity to freely sell oil at world prices for energy carriers?

- Oil prices could come down a little, but if the confrontation in the Middle East grows, they could increase again.

- To what extent might the lifting of sanctions from Iran affect Tehran's relations with its neighbours, particularly Russia and Azerbaijan?

- The lifting of sanctions doesn't mean that Iran becomes an ally of the West. The ideological stand-off between the IRI and the West is still there. As a supporter of conservative Islamic spiritual values, Iran is an opponent of western liberalism. And here there are conceptual differences between Tehran and the West. The IRI is well aware that Russia alone can provide Iran with enough technical, technological and, to some extent, military and diplomatic aid. In the same way as Russia helped the legitimate authorities in Syria to survive.

As far as Azerbaijan is concerned, so long as current policy in the general outline of the Caspian countries continues, neighbourly relations with Iran will continue to develop favourably. As regards Iran's relations with Turkey, the Erdogan government, which is also conducting a policy based on Islamic values and exhorts in abridged and modified form the re-birth of the Ottoman Empire, has clearly embarked on an independent path of development. This policy of detachment from the USA could threaten attempts from outside to dismember the Turkish state in the way of Syria. In this situation, Russia is the only guarantor of Turkey's security.

- Can we assume that Iran has even hypothetically rejected nuclear weapons?

- At the moment it is difficult to say what Tehran's true intentions are. But for Iran giving up nuclear weapons would be the gravest mistake. We have a classic example in North Korea and Libya. North Korea, despite all the pressure, developed and added nuclear weapons to its armoury. So far no country in the world has threatened military action against Pyongyang. And Libya, under pressure from the West, decided to wind down its nuclear programme, gave up confrontation and developed relations with the West. And it all ended in bombing raids and the virtual dismemberment of the country and now all kinds of extremists are operating there. Today, in conditions where the world is being run by trans-national financial corporations and doesn't have any regard for the interests of peoples, possessing nuclear weapons means guaranteeing  a country's security. In the manufacture of nuclear weapons the most important thing is to possess the technology and know how to put the parts together. Iran's intellectual potential is sufficiently high, but it is virtually impossible to control all the scientific laboratories in the country.