"WE WILL ACT!"

The 44th president of the United States of America, Barack Obama, was sworn in on 20 January 2009. The inauguration ceremony in Washington brought together a record number of people from across America. The ceremony was quite spectacular and was different for its emotionality, sincerity and openness from the imperial style of last year's inauguration of Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev at the Kremlin. In Washington, the action took place outside Congress in front of hundreds of people. Famous singers, musicians, politicians and preachers addressed the ceremony.

In his first presidential address, Barack Obama said that the Americans understand the crisis that has gripped the United States. "Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. We will act.

They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America - they will be met. Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched, but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control," the new US president said.

Then, he said that the USA was not choosing between security and ideals: "Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use."

Obama repeated his promise to withdraw troops from Iraq and leave it to its people.

"With old friends and former foes, we will work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat," the US president also said.

Priorities

The new US president has a strong character and charisma which are so important at such a difficult time. Obama has been given a big vote of confidence from wide strata of the population regardless of their race, ethnicity, religious affiliation and financial situation. It inspires not only hope, but also enthusiasm and a desire to act. In the current difficult situation facing the USA, this is important as never before. In order to carry out difficult reforms, the president will have to overcome powerful resistance from various groups, and in order to stand his ground, Obama will need powerful support from society. If Barack Obama keeps his promise to conduct a correct policy and identify the right priorities, he will manage to lead the USA out of the crisis and restore its leadership and tarnished reputation in the world.

The most important task of the new administration is, of course, to take decisive measures to improve the financial-economic situation and support those who suffered from the crisis most of all. This is important not only for the USA, but also for other countries because once the US economy is restored, it will draw the rest of the world like a locomotive.

Another thing that draws close attention outside the USA is how the Obama administration will behave in international affairs. It is exactly in this sphere that Washington's policy has suffered failures and has come under greater criticism.

According to leading American and European analysts, US foreign policy under President Obama will be drastically different from the policy of George Bush who made most decisions unilaterally, often using military force. It is clear that the new Democratic US administration intends to base its foreign policy on traditional dialogue, focusing on dialogue and advantages and benefits of partnership and cooperation.

For example, President Obama took up his responsibilities immediately after the inauguration. It is symbolic that he signed a decree to close the Guantanamo prison and other secret CIA prisons, suspended all the unexecuted decrees of his predecessor, and held an economic session and a meeting with top military officials. He made his first foreign phone calls to the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Israel and the head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmud Abbas, in order to localize the situation surrounding Gaza and engage in the settlement of the old, but still acute, Arab-Israeli conflict.

The well-known German political expert, Alexander Rahr, says: "Obama is a typical politician who has made a lot of promises. The Third World is simply delighted that an African American has come to power in America and pins some incredible hopes on him - that he will fight for the poor, will be engaged in African politics as a matter of priority, will defeat AIDS and feed the whole world. Latin America sees him as the most leftist, and maybe even a socialist president, who has come to power in the United States of America. Europe expects him to build a comfortable security system for the Europeans, to consult them, not to provoke new wars and in principle, to stabilize the shaky world order in the interests of the trans-Atlantic community. The Arab world is carefully studying possible Islamic roots of the Obama family."

However, the first appointments made by Barack Obama show that the new administration is expected to take no impulsive steps in foreign policy. Defence Secretary Robert Gates, who was appointed by George Bush, retained his post, while Hillary Clinton has been appointed new secretary of state. Apart from these people, Obama's foreign policy will be influenced by such well-known and experienced representatives of the Democratic Party as Zbigniew Brzezinski, Madeleine Albright, Richard Holbrooke, Strobe Talbott and others.

It is clear that apart from President Obama himself, State Secretary Hillary Clinton will also play a key role in international affairs. In general, if we look at Obama's appointments, there is an impression that people from the circle of the Clinton family got most of the posts in the new administration. This shows that Barack Obama intends to rely on experienced politicians and administrators from the Democratic Party before he settles down in order to avoid mistakes and criticism. This makes sense, but we should not forget that people expect real and deep changes from Obama, while increased confidence often turns into a deep disappointment.

A view from Azerbaijan

As a senator, President Obama has already visited Azerbaijan. He must be well-aware of Azerbaijan's importance to US policy, and not only in the regional context. This applies not only to energy, but also to Iran's nuclear programme, the deployment of elements of the US anti-missile defence system and the use of communications through Azerbaijan to secure supplies to the US troops in Afghanistan.

The future secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, is also aware of the problems of the South Caucasus, and specifically those of Azerbaijan. When her husband Bill Clinton was president, an important contract on the development of the Azari-Ciraq-Gunasli deposit was sanctioned and the decision on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was supported. In a word, changes in the style of US policy under the new administration do not mean at all that the USA will give up its deep-rooted interests in the region which are strongly linked to Azerbaijan. The readiness of the White House to conduct a policy through dialogue and cooperation with all the sides interested in the region meets Azerbaijan's interests and fits into the balanced foreign policy conducted by Baku.

Meanwhile, not only the position of the new US administration about the Karabakh conflict and the situation in the South Caucasus as a whole, but also Washington's policy on Iran, Turkey and Russia are of interest to Baku.

For example, with regard to Iran, Barack Obama expressed his intention to start a direct dialogue on all problems, including the most important one - restricting Iran's nuclear programme.

As for Turkey, it cannot but see that the new administration has many figures who had earlier spoken out in favour of recognizing the so-called "Armenian genocide" of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire. The "Armenian genocide" resolution, which was approved by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Commons, is still on the agenda of US Congress, and it is waiting for the chairwoman of the House of Commons, Nancy Pelosi, to put the resolution to a vote. But if President Obama really intends to withdraw the American troops from Iraq in a short period of time, it would not be wise of him to damage relations with its only influential regional ally - Turkey, a country which borders on Iraq. Ankara may play a decisive role in protecting Western interests and stabilize the Washington-backed government in Baghdad.

To all appearances, US policy on Russia will slightly change. If Washington can prove understanding about Moscow's concern in restricting missiles and nuclear weapons and maintaining the strategic balance, the fall in energy prices, rapidly shrinking currency reserves and the economic crisis may lessen the ambitions of the Kremlin. There is a chance to build non-confrontational relations. To all appearances, the integration of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO will slow down, but Obama and Clinton will hardly agree to recognize Moscow's exclusive rights in the former post-Soviet area. Meanwhile, Russian politicians and analysts express restrained optimism about positive changes in relations with the USA under the Democratic administration.

In the meantime, in a situation when oil and gas prices are falling, not only the importance of Russia, but also that of major energy projects may slightly decrease. It is possible that US attention to Azerbaijan will also decrease as a result of this. However, we are not new to international affairs. Azerbaijan is important for Washington as the strongest state in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan has well-established relations with the US government and the diplomatic dialogue is conducted regularly. In recent years, Azerbaijan been regularly visited by top officials of the US Department of State and secretaries of energy and commerce. During the Russian-Georgian conflict in summer, the country was visited by US Vice-President Dick Cheney. American-Azerbaijani relations are successfully moving forward in the economic, political and even military spheres, and nothing is likely to prevent their further development under the new White House administration.